"Serica spike down at the same time went from 222 to208..."
Indeed strange raid over the course of a minute or so with rapid fire AT's, lowest trade 203.6,
As I said strange that HBR mirrored SQZ.... hummmm, interesting !!!!
"Oil's Wild Ride Is Driven by a Disruptive Band of Bot Traders.... An opaque group of algorithmic money managers have seized control of the oil market."
Be fine if it was just oil !!!
It's the whole b l o o d y market, PI's stand little chance.
Anyone following the OPEC meeting yesterday and WTI/Brent at the same time would have witnessed firsthand the unbelievable movement in oil prices, on what was great news for oil. How the price got crushed before the meeting ended and before the massive cuts were known.... morally corrupt doesn't cover it afaic.
aimo & dyor
X@Amena__Bakr - 5m
Almost all member states appear to be aligned that a deeper cut is needed #OOTT #Opec
Talks around a cut of more than 1 million bpd and will depend on how much could be contributed by member states - delegates #OOTT #Opec
Upomega,
"a merger between them and ourselves would be good inmv.."
I floated that idea too earlier in the year and I agree, even more so it would make sense now. Combined FCF for 2024 I estimate at being easily in excess of $2bn, some war-chest is that. Such a deal would also put my worries about Mercuria's intentions to one-side, for the moment !
aimo & dyor
"Surely they cannot be that evil...", of course they can and given the opportunity, will imo.
For me, investment allowance withdrawal could never be applied retrospectively by Labour as it would be an absolute minefield to apply (push-back from the industry would be enormous imo), so would further aid Mercuria's objectives in returning more profitable bottom line. Most likely Labour would cease all allowances going forward, so driving the last nail into the NS coffin, assuming there are any nails left and space to drive them in by then !! Mercuria can just then pump the wells dry with little to nothing decomm liabilities either ... Just my opinion.
aimo & dyor
QC,
"I question how long the investment allowance will last under Labour.."
Quite !!
ATM all the ducks appears to falling into line nicely for Mercuria, all it needs is for investment allowance to be withdrawn in 2025/6 crashing the SP and destroying our worth then it will be payday for Mercuria and its Trojan Horse.
Should we acquire another high CapEx none accretive deal then that would confirm my suspicions. Use up as much of SQZ cash as possible in improving / developing fields ready for production, lowering the value of SQZ, then before production begins / hits new heights make a derisory offer for remaining ~70% .... Then sit back and watch the mountains of cash flow in for little to nothing CapEx.
As I mention before, the JOG deal, imo, is just the beginning of Mercuria feathering one's giant nest.
aimo & dyor
Mommur,
"I feel we are now in a period of consolidation after Buchan...."
I have to disagree on that one I'm afraid. For me we NEED accretive production, JOG is some years off that and we are constantly fighting production decline, squeezing the pips as it were, so for me another deal is close to hand, esp given the massive conjecture I felt emulated from TW deal at the time. The JOG deal is not of the size that I would associate with such conjecture. I have had my eye on a deal with CHAR for sometime now, has the JOG RNS put that option to bed given they too are some years off production, who knows !
Worth noting that the JOG deal has a effective economic date for the transaction of 1 April 2023, so not unreasonable to think another deal on similar timelines could be announce soon given the promise to look for operatorship too. Of course CHAR could be well of the mark although I really do think the market are looking for us to have production or at least a substantial interest outside of UKNS.
aimo & dyor
"Who is unloading.."
No one imo, just a share shuffle, to what end, I can only guess, usually to aid tax or voting rights.
Or maybe not, didn't realise LSE stopped issuing them recently ... ;-(
"Service notice: Due to low readership of PME notices, RNS will cease their publication in late March / early April 2023. Please contact rns@lseg.com if you have any questions related to this change...."
Mikey,
"the Buchan field is forecast to deliver 35,000 barrels of oil per day at peak production..... 7000 *50 = thats like $100m in cash every year.... FREE.."
Or another way of looking at it is, wait for a few years then collect ~250p/s dividend EVERY YEAR thereafter.
aimo & dyor
Just a few more pieces of news and we should see staged rise to circa ~380p and beyond, news which I may add is about as nailed on as you can get during these turbulent times.
Given the almost 'certainty' of said news, offers for our remaining equity would surely follow, just hope our board choose the right path for shareholders at that particular moment.
In the meantime, JOG's coffers are overflowing with milestone payments ..... :-)
PS ~32m shares in issue at this point with a minnow O&G players is unheard of.... talking of 'herd' !!!
PPS They tried extremely hard to close the gap over past few days, almost made it too, absolutely NO chance this time around, although they had a good go this morning.
DU, a very Good Morning, Me Ol' Mucker.... ;-)
aimo & dyor
Mommur,
"or are we looking at a possible bid / dilution for us folks again as the "business" grows...."
For sure the price reflects to some degree EPL but I also think we could be close to a deal, or even a mega-merger.
As for DIVI re-investment, made my mind up some time ago to plough no more back into SQZ.
aimo & dyor