Member Info for NewKOTB

Energy Voice

Northern North Sea
The Serica-operated 3/24c-6 North Eigg HPHT exploration well was spudded with the Paul B Lloyd Jr semi-sub on 11 July. The well was re-spudded on 19 July and again on 9 August. The well is targeting Upper Jurassic intra-Kimmeridge Clay Formation turbidite sandstones in a downfaulted three-way dip-closed trap. Resources are estimated at 18.1 – 63.4 – 210 mmboe.

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https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/exploration-production/439042/uk-well-slot-serica-and-shell-get-spudding/

Is NE Proving to be another R3 problem child !

Due to complications N Eigg well was re-spud on 19/7 and again on 9/8 after initial spud on 11/7 .

Just as well we are able to recover majority of drill costs via the new WFT Levy.

Looking likely drill results will be pushed out into November now not early October.

aimo & dyor

SERICA ENERGY PLC will be holding a Interim Results meeting on 27th Sep 2022 at 1:00pm BST via Investor Meet Company.

Visitor,

"huge debt with interest paid on that going up, is beyond me...."

Probably end up at some point with devaluation of the £, shrink national debt, make UK export goods cheaper but imports will cost more, inflation higher, a general re-set of the economy. As majority of goods are imported and UK PLC has no real manufacturing just a service / gig economy, you are probably right, national debt will be the next mountain to deal with. Or just continually leave it for the next bloke/woman in No11 to deal with !!

Yesterday SQZ struggled to hold early gain and fell away quite quickly, whilst others held gains much better. This morning, more downward pressure yet NBP DA moved from 222p/therm yesterday to 317p/therm today.... Tracking futures, currently down ~10% today, is not what should be happening but that's the way Mr Market likes to play it atm. Really fails to respect supply / demand in real terms, let alone SQZ having >55% of its MCap in cash and equivalents with zero debt.

aimo & dyor

bobocaca,

"NewKOTB, you have misunderstood...."

No, I know exactly what it means, I just didn't explain it in full like yourself and assumed others will know what I was implying.

What I was trying to get across, why would an employee pay cash out of their own pocket at 373p/s at this point in time !

For me, it's so they can hold them in their own right ... in probably an ISA. Not only does it give them voting rights but also tax advantages too .... As I said, speaks volumes to me.

Been over 1% of the company shares now transferred from EBT to beneficiaries, ie employees in just under past two weeks with no doubt more to follow.

aimo & dyor

So yet more Transfer of shares from EBT to beneficiaries ... some paying 373p/s to hold them in their own right, speaks volumes to me.

Sasa,

Yep, we all fully expect H1 results vs H1 2021 to be great as NBP averaged x3.35 (181p/therm) to that of 2021 for the same period. Lost production at height of NBP from Rhum would have put a slight dampener on things but as you mentioned H2 ( YE) will / should be phenomenal in comparison too.

Interim's as I posted before I see no reason why total 2022 distribution should not be ~29p/s, equal to PTP for 2021.

As for acquisition, unless ACW have been working on a major (transformational) deal for a producing asset over past 6 months the likely scenario is to acquire oversea or a NS 'project' that requires major CapEx to off-set, what will be a substantial tax levy. Producers atm will be hanging on tightly or wanting top dollar for any half decent asset.

Cash and equivalents I estimate to be in the region of ~£550-£565m as of 31/8/22.

Yes, KIST have to wait 6 months before coming back, unless we receive an offer from someone else in the meantime at which point they are free to join the party once more, though given AA previous attempt/s, I doubt it.

atb
aimo & dyor

btw, must add it wasn't me that started deleted thread, as I love a spicy Indian, just ask my wife, who is.

Only an hour to find out next PM .... Will we see FTSE turn +ve and give another little push our way.

aimo & dyor

Should see heightened interest and hopefully investors coming onboard also others adding to current positions.

aimo & dyor

Appears the mass of fantastic healthy discussion ( all within LSE rules btw ) over the w/e has now been removed as original post that started the thread 'folks' was, I guess, deemed to be offensive as it mentioned .... "Monday. Should be exciting. Like it or not we may end up with a new tax levy from either that Indian bloke or Anglo Saxon woman" ..... Real pity that whoever reported it didn't realise all those numerous long, time consuming & informative posts beneficial, imo to SQZ BB readers by MC/LL/BB/DRB etc from that thread would be removed too. This post will probably not last long either ... !

aimo & dyor

DRB83,

https://www.marex.com/services/data-advisory/market-data/market-data-indices/

DRB83,

atm, H1 NBP looking set to be weaker than H2 ... add-in lost production factor from Rhum in Q1 and H2 improved production, with well interventions etc, H2 will show much improved figures on H1 I'm sure.

Average price per therm :
1Q 2021 - 49p/therm
2Q 2021 - 65p/therm
3Q 2021 - 119p/therm
4Q 2021 - 226p/therm
1Q 2022 - 232p/therm (x4.7 2021)
2Q 2022 - 130p/therm (x2 2021)
3Q 2022 to date : 297p/therm (x2.5 2021)

Current NBP DA @ 222p/therm

aimo & dyor

Visitor,

Thanks for great post, I too, as many here already know share same views.

As regards CoH, I posted the other day, "One would hope SQZ will announce their cash position as of 31/8/22 within interim's. Depending upon invoices paid, I would expect cash to be ~£550m-£565m, up from £396m announced for end of May, anything more, well, need I say !" So your estimate of £550m is inline with my own too.

As you also stated, "actual Dividend Policy... e.g. 40-60% of Net Profit or the like.." I view as a must, not only from a distribution of profits but so institutional investors have a clearer income path, which should in turn gain more 'sticky' investors.

My over-riding concern atm is uncertainty of any gas 'cap', oil one announce yesterday but mechanics are far from clear and actual proposed implementation currently targeting 5 December 2022 for crude oil and 5 February 2023 for petroleum products, however just the mention of such a cap on gas will weaken investor sentiment for sure. Is this what's driving NBP DA down so fast atm, currently 222p/therm, certainly not 85% German reserves announced as NS1 halting for god knows how long has had zero impact. A few months ago NBP / TTF would of gone wild on that news, so something greater is driving NBP atm ... or is it just a broken gas market !

As for "55% of market cap in cash and cash equivalents.." I believe we are at that point already, with remember, zero debt on our books to service.

BTW, HBR saw their 2022 H1 profits climb by x12 to that of 2021..... don't know how ours will fair (to many variables) but for sure it will be interesting as a gauge going forward.

PS Andrew, Andrew wherefore art thou Andrew !!!

aimo & dyor

Think you need to change your perspective CR888 if +1100p is now your target.

For me options for DARK :

1. Rollover and take what is offered
2. Reject outright TB
3. Put defenses into place to protect DARK from t/o.
4. Enable defenses to push any offer higher.

So for me 1 & 2 are now get less likely and possibly out of the equation, so which is it, option 3 or 4, neither of which have put their head above the parapet, in being made public,'leaked' that is. I'm actually impressed on how tight NDA's are so far.

Oh, btw your statement "As I mentioned if talks are going well , and TB needs more time , Dark has the right to extend the deadline of Sept 12...." is not quite right. For deadline to be extended would require BOTH DARK and TB to approach takeover panel and request an extension. It is then for takeover panel, (not DARK/TB) to establish if there are reasonable grounds upon which to allow extension , ie has there been sufficient progress made to-date. Extensions are not common practice.

aimo & dyor

ah, to gas or not to gas !!!

https://www.rferl.org/a/medvedev-warns-could-halt-supplies-if-eu-adopts-gas-price-cap/32015825.html

----------------------

"Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has warned the European Union that Moscow could halt the flow of natural gas to the bloc if it introduces a price cap on Russian supplies as urged by European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen.

Von der Leyen on September 2 called for a price cap on Russian pipeline gas to stop Moscow from manipulating the EU's energy market in retaliation for sanctions sparked by the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine in late February.

In response, Medvedev, who has taken a hard line against countries that have slapped sanctions on Russia over the invasion, said a cap would trigger a response and "there will simply be no Russian gas in Europe.”

"As the G7 announces its plan to put a price cap on Russian oil, you might be wondering what the G7 is.

Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the United States.But China and India, which both have large economies, are not in the group.Some G7 officials have expressed concerns that the price cap will not be successful without the participation of those two nations, Reuters news agency reports. India and China have both increased their purchases of Russian oil since the war in Ukraine began.

The price cap document states that the G7 countries are carrying out "extensive and ongoing engagement with a diverse group of countries and key stakeholders" to set the price level and mechanism for implementing it.

It says the alliance seeks to "establish a broad coalition in order to maximise effectiveness", as well as urging countries importing Russian oil to "commit to doing so only at prices at or below the price cap".

The initial price cap will be "decided by the full coalition in advance of implementation in each jurisdiction", the agreement adds.

---------------

No mention about gas though !

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-62763523

We have posters going on about DARK not making annual profit, company being over valued etc etc ..... then I look at ITM, also yet to make a profit, revenue of a few million (£4m) and in an emerging growing market, that had a value of >£3.5bn until recently and some on here don't think DARK is worth making an offer on. Cyber protection is a prerequisite now and even more so in the future, hydrogen a few more years and that too imo. btw, we had 36 single share trades yesterday, including last trade of the day ... lol. SP appears fixed for last few hours, guess order being filled !

aimo & dyor

Well, for all believers out there, last normal trade of the day @ 16:29:57 was for :

A SINGLE SHARE !!!

There is always Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund, who wouldn't mind imo grabbing one or two more British icons. SSWF have $billions$ so much so, esp with POO probably don't know what to do with it .... inflation will quickly eat away at any cash companies have stashed away over the next 24-36 months imo. Use it or lose it.

Must add, those that do try to start a meaningful discussion have my best wishes.