Est £729m Cash & Equivalents as of 30/9/2224 Sep 2022 16:31
With Q3 showing very strong average commod pricing (NBP 294p/therm, $103 Brent ) 100% BKR, on avg net production ~28kboepd post hedging / opex / capex / admin etc we should be looking at Q3 producing ~£289m net (pre tax)
Current net revenue pre tax of ~£3.18m per day (~£95m per month) on Q3 average commods or around 8p/s per week.
With reported cash of £396m ((31st May 2022) plus June - Sept net revenue, that would give us cash and equivalents of ~£729m (267p/s) against a Mcap of £966m (354p/s) .... that's over 70% of MCap in cash & equivalents atm !!!
Hope our interim's on Tuesday state cash position as of 31/8/22, which I now estimate to be ~ £656m, although I'm not sure when tax would / should be paid plus allowing for outstanding receipts therefore my previous estimate of CoH ~£550m-£565m may be more reflective .
So, with est CoH of £729m & reserves est 61mmboe ( allowing for revision following well interventions ) valued at a lowly £17boe would value SQZ at ~£1.77bn or ~£6.47p/s. However should N Eigg come in and de-risk S Eigg too, then we could be looking, according to SQZ, to add >100mmboe (+165% on current net 2P reserves) North & South Eigg P50 prospective resources.
Remember we have zero debt to service too with, I est 2022 CapEx now to be >£95m, majority of which should help reduce our EPL substantially. Don't forget levy is applicable to profits arising on or after 26th May, so Serica's profit prior to that date are unaffected and ring-fenced.
Don't take my figures as gospel, although I do aim for them to be as accurate as possible so please, dyor.
aimo
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