Member Info for NewKOTB

Not sure what made NBP futures fly up >20% to +27% .... not complaining though !

No real volume reported so whoever is Richarding around with our SP is doing it undercover and for a reason imo.

Lets see what late / delayed trades appear today / tomorrow.

Body language tells me we may have dealings once again with BP ..... hummmm !!!

SERICA ENERGY PLC 27th SEP Interim Results

27th Sep 2022 at 1:00pm BST

Video

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/interim-results-97

https://www.serica-energy.com/downloads/presentations/22-Interims-Final.pdf

dickupham,

"My earnest hope is that a buyer will soon emerge and pay a fair for the shares (550-600p?). There seems to me to be increasing risk involved in ownership:.." agree totally.

Well for me we are certainly at a Crossroads, just need to ask Benny as even he could see major change is required for SQZ to move forward. Field CoP is closing in fast, avg production appears to be falling away, we are sitting on licences adjacent to Rhum / Bruce for which we have not progressed, M&A , well least said about that the better. Too much weight now on outcome of NE for my liking and as for SBB, all that will do is massage mgt performance figures to enable SBB to be replaced by free, fill your boots LTIP's.

Anyone that comes calling, unlike AA, should be welcomed and at very least enter into 'meaningful' discussions. For me, atm top end would be ~650p/s, however anything north of 500p/s (£1.365bn) would get my vote. Just hope that 'talks' are indeed currently taking place and that was the reason for our BoD recommending to SH that we 'STRONGLY' do nothing in response to KIST (AA) recent approach . You should always leave something for the other guy when selling as it is they who will now acquire all the risk, so 550-600p/s would do just that.

aimo & dyor

flexmw,

Thanks for that ..... another report for anyone invested in NS producers ....

https://fortune.com/2022/09/27/nord-stream-pipeline-leak-damage-unprecedented-russia-energy-crisis-europe/

LOL, Only in the UK can profit be a dirty word !!

Probably get a mention from Starmer et al at party conference today, may even be on BBC too !!

Context needed :

We paid £66m tax in H1 vs £0.9m in H1 2021, somehow don't think this will be mentioned anywhere at any point by anyone, least of all the Labour Party.... 733% (73 fold) increase in tax paid !!

aimo & dyor

HBR now up more than us ...... someone don't want us to climb.... SQZ now RED ffs !!!

The one that really counts ..... "profit after tax of £116.7 million (1H 2021: £1.3 million)..". :-)

Serica generated a profit before taxation of £194.5 million for 1H 2022 compared to £2.2 million for 1H 2021.

don't you mean 'several hundred thousand' at least ....

Oh, profit after tax for H1 2021 was £1.3m ..... would hope we have no problem smashing that out of the water either as we done nothing but hoard cash in H1 with exception of Rhum manifold repair and associated lost production together with unexpectedly high hedging losses on operating profits.

PS HBR just turned blue whilst we remain -4.1% (-14.5pts)

aimo & dyor

Hope our interim's tomorrow state cash position as of 31/8/22, which I now estimate to be at best ~ £656m, although I'm not sure when tax would / should be paid plus allowing for outstanding receipts and up-front NE drill costs, therefore adjusted estimate of CoH ~£550m-£565m may be more reflective .

As for CoH end of H1 reported interim's, then probably in the region of £420-£430m with previously reported cash of £396m (31st May 2022). With CoH balances of £92m for H1 2021 interim's, 2022's should show a >300% increase. With 2021 SQZ generating a gross profit of £46m, so this too I would expect to be a headline grabbing figure ... just hope Labour don't see it !!

aimo & dyor

That's valuing our 2P reserves at £3.16 boe ..... the type of figure for none producing p50's, let alone ones that produce ~28,000boepd. Going price for NS 2P's is £15-£20 boe ....

Are we being lined up for an approach or does Mr Market feel, like us shareholders, that the chances of SQZ making our enormous cash hoard work for us rather than being subject to inflation is minimal.

Tomorrow is another day .... oh, and our interim's.... Mitch had better impress the market and NOT not announce commencement of SB as their answer.

aimo & dyor

The market atm is attributing ~71p/s (£193m) to the underlying business EV as a whole... madness !!

Oh, and our remaining hedging p/term increases by ~15% in Q4 too.

NBP Friday was 249p/therm, today 242p/therm, which is what counts in terms of actual cash in the till. Futures in reality mean nothing to revenues is driving sentiment as that's down ~9% (261p/therm). However in 3 days it will roll to Novembers, which is currently 400p/therm. Plus, in 5 days we gain 50,000 therms p/d (~860boepd) in hedging reduction too.

aimo & dyor

LL,

SQZ end of 2021 had no 'debt', indeed since 2017 and only then was a tiny £2m if I'm correct. HBR will, according to themselves HBR will be debt free in 2023 from current position of net debt of < $1.1bn.

One thing HBR do have, very much so, is track record of creating accretive value through large scale NS M&A. Would an accretive acquisition of ~£1.77bn be large scale enough for HBR !! One that would self finance return on investment at current commod pricing in double quick time, I would have thought so. Then there is ability to off-set or even completely wipe-out, what would otherwise be their massive tax burden with acquisitions too.

Since SQZ completed BKR, HBR have built a substantial portfolio via acquisitions, Shell assets 2017, Conoco 2019, PMO 2021 and more very likely to follow in the near term, aggressively so imo.

For me, HBR could very easily see SQZ as a natural prey that meets their acquisition criteria and also lowers their tax burden whilst ensuring they remain primary independent NS producer.

aimo & dyor

LL,

Not sure what period you are referencing when comparing SQZ/HBR but over last month HBR have risen +14% and SQZ fallen -19%, ~33% divergence. ( sorry for long link ).

https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/SQZ.L#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