The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
I suppose it’s human nature to fixate on a number and try and find any explanation and justification for how and when we will get there, even if that means completely abandoning critical thinking and reality.
Even scarier is the amount of likes those posts get.
But this is a board for aim punts so I’m getting used to reading only extreme positions.
Having said all that, let’s hope the number does indeed go up lol
For the millionth time, this is painfully out of date and very misleading. This price was based on the non-diluted share price from bloody years ago.
LOOK AT MARKET CAP PEOPLE. Think how many simply read this, immediately times their no. shares by 54p and can’t stand up for 10 mins due to excitement…
Assuming all goes well then a £1bn market cap would be around a 10x from here. Not 54p lol.
Im invested so would love to see some positive outcome here.
HOWEVER, it seems that a number of commentators are assuming the interests of Southend’s management team are fully aligned with Esken. The latest RNS shows that they are not as Southend is speaking directly with Carlyle to find a solution, even if that is at the detriment to Esken.
Esken is being squeezed out for bargain prices so my main concern is that even if the long term success of the airport is realised (which I think is reasonable), it is unlikely that Esken, and therefore us shareholders, will see any of that benefit.
Biggest thing I took away from the vid was Lorna’s insistence that they are going full speed ahead given their confidence in the tests already completed - she seemed like it is very much a formality.
The only caveat to that was about the deeper analysis of the results and how that will impact commerciality. Hopefully that means it is a case of working through the optimal next steps for exactly what they have as opposed to there being any doubt that what they have isn’t commercial.
Exciting times
To comment on my one thread:
Is it just people buying in on anticipation of a Monday RNS? And Thursday has become the new Friday.
When no news it just drops 5% per day the following week.
One Monday we’ll get the RNS. Let’s just hope the results back up what we expect and are clear in terms of next steps
Am asking myself the same thing! My average is very low as only got in recently as a punt knowing it was all or nothing.
Still a very high chance of failure but any positive news and it’s a tidy profit - not gonna lie essentially a gamble ha.
Not investment advice
Pompey, you realise that that price is wildly out of date and based on the non-diluted SP, right? Something like 5-7p now would reflect the previous 27p peak (those are estimates, haven’t done the maths).
Here’s to hoping but I think people have just ran with the old figures rather than looking at market cap. If it hits 50p I’ll be a very happy man but that would mean we have a £2bn company here - maybe, but not soon.
Supercharger I hope you’re correct!
What worries me though is the following:
‘The recapitalisation proposal includes a commitment by LSA to make an application to court for a restructuring plan under part 26A of the Companies Act 2006, absent Esken and EAL agreeing to the terms of the recapitalisation proposal.’
So basically even if Esken don’t accept on a consensual basis (which itself they seem to suggest will have an adverse impact) then their hand could be forced through the courts. Classic Carlyle attempting the asset grab.
I would like to see Esken fight a bit stronger if they truely believe they are not in the wrong. Otherwise it doesn’t seem like it will end well for us.
If I’ve missed something happy to be corrected
As a number of commentators have already mentioned, the SP is likely to remain within this range, and may even drop further, until there is news.
And that news should hopefully be full, independent, analysis of exactly what we have here, confirmation of commerciality and lastly, more details on the operational next steps, including financing options being explored.
Follow that up with another RNS a week later on a potential JV/other positive financing option and I’d be later.
I understand that people are getting frustrated with the lack of updates but I’m hoping this just reflects the long lead time to get the results checked and possibly ongoing conversations HE1 is currently having with potential suitors.
In the meantime I’m enjoying this sweet spot of anticipation!
I think it’s quite apt that whenever I type Esken in the search bar my autocorrect changes it to ‘wake’ - this share is RIP.
(I hope there is something to salvage but it seems Carlyle are twisting the knife in. No point selling now)
I don’t know what you want from me haha. It’s an anonymous board; Neil started having a go.
I’m new to investing, signed up to this stuff because I was silly and got lucky to get in at 0.05p ish average. Now people are attacking me haha. I want this to go up a sizeable amount to make a meaningful difference to my life. If it goes to zero so be it.