Member Info for netcurtains

AquaeSulis01: ChatGpt got its data from here:

https://reports.valuates.com/market-reports/QYRE-Auto-13Z7617/global-matrixyl?utm_source=chatgpt.com

It lists these companies - however I agree these might all just be making it under licence or simply rebranding it under their own label - but anyway you look at it the £150M depends on these companies as well as CRODA: https://ilu.valuates.com/4748474849427456/matrixyl---market-600w.jpg

Yes I have a feeling of impending doom. I always have this when investing in oilers and pharmaceuticals.

when it comes to down to "winners take it all" an losers "take zero".....

I always feel "oh gawd if only I didn't do it"......

But I'm committed now - unless some "negative" news snippet comes out before Monday 4:30pm ...

Possibly even April 8th might be OK to sell if get in early....

My matra is "Its OK net, you can afford to lose the lot and still be up on the year so far" - at least it was until the "Great Trump Recession" hit into nearly all my investments. So I could be hit by a double whammy the "Trump Catastrophe" and "SBTX damp squid" -

I'm hoping one of the two is not as bad as I feel they might vaguely turn out to be...

TOUCHWOOD

Bigpunt: You asked "why are you trying to peg earnings forecasts from an inferior product, for which you have no credible data,"

and "lowest possible double digit royalties"

Well obvious there is data on the internet for the turnover of Matrixyl which says its value is £150M but alas CRODA dont make all that £150M there are about 5 other companies involved in making it.... So in order for SBTXs ingredient to match that "inferior" ingredient CRODA is going to have to put a gigantic markup on it or sell a heck of a lot more of it (5 times more than it sells Matrixyl).....

But assuming , hook or by crook , we eventually get the sales , we could be making £15M from it at 10% royalty.... But that will be a long journey.

CRODA stands to make a fortune too because unlike Matrixyl they will be the only company making it. But its an arms race - other companies are developing their own lysates so this window of opportunity will not last long. SBTX and CRODA will need to be constantly improving etc etc etc and developing new products.

AquaeSulis01: I have not moved on from it but chose not to mention it as others were offended or upset or annoyed or thought it totally wrong or nuts or whatever....

So being someone who is good at dodgeball (you'll need to read my autobiography on Amazon if to know why) I chose to change tack for the audience (such as it is)....

PS - due to CURRYS I've moved up to 11th on the stockchallenge - I wonder how everyone one else who posts here is doing on share buying competitions: https://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/report.php?challenge=202504&report=full&order=position

(sorry I shouldn't have done that - I'll be last tomorrow)....

Thanks Skychap:

Right so I best get started.

This is my guess on SBTX ingredient royalties.

(if blockbuster - For example if the Croda ingredient comes in top 10 for some award or other and a load of companies want to buy it)..

Because Market Cap of SBTX is about £50M one assumes the average punter is expecting SBTX to eventually make £5M profit per anum (otherwise why drive the share price up so high???)

So lets join the two things together - the market cap and expectations on the deal.

I know the percentage is variable depending on sales but because of NDA lets keep it simple- just call it 10%:

Year 1

It will sell about £10M in its first year and we will make £1M royalties (over 12 months ) from it.

Year 2

(if blockbuster) £40M sales and we get £4M

Year 3

(if blockbuster) £100M sales and we get £10M

If its not a blockbuster everyone will leave the building... and that guy Seedy will be giggling to himself and the cobwebs.

😀

I have absolutely no idea why others are investing in this share if they cannot make any sort of guess on royalties. I certainly would never touch a company with a barge poll if I could make not guess/estimate on its future.

Shychap: We have to make some guesses as SBTX is uninvestable.

So really if Matrixyl (or any otehr ingredient) has turnover of £150M (gross)...

we need to guess (a bit) if our deal is 10% of the GROSS turnover or are some

costs deducted before we get our 10%...

(bull park).....

If we cant make guesses then we cant invest in SBTX as it would be pointless.

So fundamentally I have to totally disagree with you.

AquaeSulis01: Boots is a red herring. The question is nothing to do with boots.

I asked something really simple.

If we get 10% and if we sell the same as Matrixyl

would that equate to

£150M * 0.1 = £15M

Would we get (ball park) £15M once it reaches that level?

Its a very simple question.

There is no need to obfuscate it with Boots or pretend I did not ask it.

Elrico: I want to understand what you are saying (trust me - I am invested in this)...

Are you saying this equation is not even close to being true?

Sales * 10% royalties = SBTX cut

Say if we sold similar to Matrixly that would be (ball park)

£150M * 0.1 = £15M royality for SBTX?

Are you saying I have totally misunderstood the percentage calculation and the true number would be no where near anything like £15M - even if it was a blockbuster?

This is important not just to me but to loads of people so make it clear please.

So far you have not

Thank you

Elrico: I've never seen someone make such a point about a "cig packet calculation" so I must be missing something important.

Lets do this ultra slowly.

Matrixyl (so chatGpt says) has sales from about £100M to £200M. For arguments sake lets assume that is our product.

10% of that is £10M to £20M

That is "cig packet" calculation.

Are you saying I have misunderstood - that in fact the £100M to £200M is not the sale value of Matrixyl that can be related to the SBTX 10% for its ingredient - that is a different price entirely?

Or are you still going on about working it out from Boots sales (in which case I have zero interest).

Belgrano: Agreed - although I also have CURRYS (doing well on Nordic recovery)

Both CURY and SBTX should see my stockchallenge APRIL result do OK (touchwood)

- I'm currently 26th

https://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/report.php?challenge=202504&report=full&order=position

Elrico: Its just another way at looking at the same thing.

If you ask chatGPT the margin is about 50%

A big percentage cost will be the ingredients....

Now - you can disagree - but I am not wrong to look at a "Back of Cig PAcket"

way of doing it...

If you look at Matrixyl as a comparison it would actually equate to about £10M to £20M going

to SBTX (perhaps even £30M) - so if I am wrong in my methodology - it still comes to roughly the same figure as if I was right..

So - once volume ramps up - I will stick my neck out. I think SBTX within a few years might get

between £10M to £30M profit from this deal "if" they get 10% and if the sales are any where near as big

as Matrixyl..

So far Boots only mention 100,000 orders - it would need millions for me to be right - so still some way to go.

PGlancy: I stand by my "back of a cig packet" calculations

and I know you're being deliberately disingenuous.

Just pick on someone else with your crap.

Thanks.

PGlancey : This works for me: I ignore you and you ignore me. This way we'll both get on better.

😊

Thanks.

pglancy: i think you need to read my 'back of a *** packet' post again. "if" croda can work out their "rough and ready" share by product sold then so can sbtx.....

boots will be working on a 50% gross margin.... its possible (but unlikely) that the main cost are the ingredients..... but suppose they its only 50% of the cost.

then if boots sell 1m £30 products at 50% markup means the original cost was £20m .

assume ingredients only half the costs. that means £10m goes to croda and £1m to sbtx.

20 boots type deals for croda gives sbtx (at 10%) £20m profit.

cheers net.

if boots sell say 1m no 7 thingies a year at £30 per container..

that is £30m. suppose their markup is 50% so croda, potentially might get £15 per sale.

of which the key ingredient gets (say ) £10... assuming we get 10% that would equate

to sbtx getting £1m from the boots deal - alone....

say globally we sell to about 10 to 20 boots worth of businesse that would be £10m to £20m given to sbtx every

year....

blimey!

(*** packet calculations)

Matrixyl 3000 appears to have come out around about 2010 so although the Boots No 7 do mention it as the ingredient the advert was probably knocked up years ago and Matrixyl will probably not be the key ingredient at the launch in 6 days times. However since the name "matrixyl" is CRODAs it does imply that the Boots No 7 cosmetic range will be using CRODA ingredients.

Mentioning working with Manchester University for X years along side mentioning CRODA ingredients implies its either the SBTX ingredient or its very similar....

I'd say its 70% chance it contains some SBTX lysate.

The boots cosmetic appears to be CRODA but possibly not SBTX - difficult to say..

It mentions Matrixyl 3000+™ which is CRODA but not SBTX

Ambiguous....

Oleric: The Boots cosmetic is unlikely to be exclusive for ALL its ingredients (unless its made in house) ...

It could be an exclusive mix of ingredients or an exclusive amount of each ingredient etc.....

But I take your point, its unlikely to be SBTX if its got the word exclusive on the label

Yep......

So that is also part of the runes... Against that we do have news about cosmetic tariffs so whether that is due do the SBTX ingredient seems a tad unlikely - but nevertheless something to be aware of.

Alam2021: Its not clear that the product will be launched on the 8th April.

Its just as likely to be a "surprise" finale on the 9th April (in fact I'd say 9th more likely).

So yes, on 9th (or 10th or 11th) I would expect an RNS - however not necessarily as the market

already know there is a CRODA - SBTX tie-up - but on balance I would expect an RNS between 9th to 11th April.