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AquaeSulis01, I take your point DELAY is a sort of a cost.

But I think its a bit rich to say £25K is garbage - as I previously stated one of my sons is a Doctor of clinical psychology and he confirmed an EEG "hat" is not that expensive (for for FTSE 100 company) to buy or rent.

There could have been lots of reasons for delay, some of them not connected to Zenokine, perhaps CRODA wanted to release another key ingredient in 2024 and felt it worked better for them to release it in 2025. We dont know all the reasons (NDA etc etc) - I was just talking about the actual cost of the test not the associated costs of delay - which I confirm you are correct...

But I dont like the use of the words "garbage" here - I did actually learn something here that I did not know before. The cost of getting an EEG reading.

When I was quoting £25K that is what chatGBT says an average Cosmetic company spends on EEG trials.....

I dont understand why this "shychap" expects CRODA to do more? What is the point?

This is not a drug trial where you have to prove all sorts of things before the NHS NICE people will add it to their lists.

If the Cosmetics companies do not believe CRODA I'm sure they would have dont further testing by now to double check. The fact that Zenakine did so well at the Amsterdam in-cosmetics event was because clearly cosmetic companies do believe (the standing ovations).

Cheers Net.

Apologies all:

My costings were for NHS. For COSMETIC TESTING, chatGPT says total cost would be £20K (if under 10 people), £30K if over (20 people)....

So total cost would probably be £25K....

Sky:

a) How do you get someone to recommend your post faster than it takes to read it ? 😀

b) EEG readings: 13 * £3000 = £39,000 (for the longish term EEG test - eg not just a few minutes) - and that is a minimum - Its probably double that if you have to pay the 13 people and the other experts to do special "readings" and then pay the research company commission on top of that... I'm guessing they might have cost £60k to £90k just for EEG tests.

Shy: That second link you posted is suspicious. I dont think people should click it.

Sorry.

Thanks Toyin:

Its also worth pointing out that BeautyMatter is based in New York, has a turnover of $3.4 M and has about 100,000 insider followers. What is says is read by influential people in the beauty industry.

Thanks guys,

and for the record, Cliostocks was right.

The Sunday Times advert/article for lancome when it talked about its trials using 70 participants did use both the single * and the double **.

Cheers Net.

Shy or others:

I was noticing that CRODAs clinical trials used up to about 25 subjects.

Whereas I've noticed that Lacome (in Sunday Times) say they are using 70 subjects.

Is this what we should expect? When cosmetics companies mix our ingredient with others they

will test again and use larger sample sizes (eg in the 70s) because they have to sell to the public,

CRODA just sell to the other companies)?

So really I'm asking do you expect to see further clinical test data soon - those done by Cosmetic Companies

(obviously they will not simply take Croda's word for it that it works - and they will mix it with other

ingredients and test the whole lot )?

Belgrano: The article was dated 18th April so I'm not sure the new version of No7 is actually out in the shops yet . I wasn't really trying to say it does contain zenakine but rather this area of Sleep Cosmetics is "hot" at present.

If you get the TODAYS SUNDAY TIMES and read the "STYLE" colour section then go to this article:

"WHY SO SENSITIVE"

its a long article on "REBUILDING THE SKIN BARRIER"

I cant give a link as its todays (and I'm sure Elrico would slap my wrist if I did that sort of thing) So you will have to spend £4 to read it.. it also lists various cosmetics in this area...

Then if you turn the page there is an interesting article about LANCOME "renergie SPF50" entitled:

"The Serum combines retinol, Vitamin C and x-peptides" for the first time......

SBTX are in the peptide market...

PS - I'm just saying that Boots No 7 does sound kind of like Zenakine.

Dont shoot me, but it sort of does

(hopefully relevant )

Boots No7 is promoting SLEEP cosmetics:

https://www.globalcosmeticsnews.com/no7-taps-into-zeitgeist-of-staying-in-with-rhythm-of-the-night-remix/

The Business wants ECO products and FERMINATION

https://cosmeticsbusiness.com/can-niche-products-deliver-next-big-wave-of-body-care-sales

The population is aging - Cosmetics meeting the challenge of an older population (re SKIN WRINKLES etc)

https://www.premiumbeautynews.com/en/skin-longevity-staying-beautiful,25577

Potential is the Sunscreen market:

https://www.cosmeticsandtoiletries.com/news/event-coverage/news/22936405/micro-powders-inc-wellness-eco-mindedness-and-luxury-drive-sunscreen-demand-natural-powders-offer-a-solution-free-webinar

Well if people are guessing takeover price I see it this way....

It depends on sales.

If sales good CRODA might be advised to bid for the company.

Say they have to pay £10M to SBTX each year for 10 years....

It might be worth their time buying SBTX for 50p a share (£100M)..

If its £20M then they might pay £200M or £1 a share....

Or if its £5M they might pay £25M a share.

Below £5M they will not bother.

HOWEVER this assumes the rest of the company is worthless. It isnt because they might get

a tie up with a high street retailer.... And other exciting developments...

So any of the values I have suggested its possible you can double them too...

So many variables... And perhaps CRODA would rather just pay the royalties rather than

commit themselves because this time next year a new wonder drug might turn up....

Tillerman: Its very worrying that 11 people liked your note - the implication is perhaps too many people are looking at Zenakine with rose tinted glasses...

If it was anywhere near as OBVIOUS as you lot seem to think the share price would be way over £2 by now (seriously)....

I think you need to scale back your hopes a bit.... Lets make just £1M profit before we get carried away.... With a market cap of £45M - that would mean we would still have a PE ratio of 45 (the average PE is about 10)....

I'm hoping for £5M profit with a couple of years (using current market cap that is a PE of 9).

£5M is a realistic early-ish target and that could possibly support a share price of 70p provided the market felt £5M was just the start.

£5M would equate to about £50M sales of ZENAKINE (I guess).

PS shy,

re: safety risks if dont do large scale trials:

As this lysate is made from natural ingredients that appear on the skin anyway I dont think that will be an issue and the product has already got this certification :

IECIC

ISO 16128

COSMOS

RSPO

However the Cosmetic companies might do some trials too - as the cosmetic is their business, CRODA only have to validate the ingredient not the finished cosmetic.

Shy:

You are correct if the trials were for medical drugs - where you need large scale double blinded tests to prove they work.

But

My son a doctor in clinical psychology says trials using 20 or so subjects is quite normal in research trials or any trials that have anything to do with the brain which often need expensive kit.

But also

20 subjects for COSMETIC trials is quite high for cosmetic trials (says chatGpt) as the proof bar is much lower. So the fact that CRODA used 20 or so for some of the trials is quite encouraging.

If people want a rough and ready "worst case" scenario.... Croda appear to have 220 ingredients on their product search.

Croda Consumer has a turnover of about £900M of which lets guess Croda Beauty accounts for £600M (we have to guess as Croda blank out the figures in the their accounts - paranoia) of which various Matrixyl ingredients account for £300M thus leaving £300M between about 200 other ingredients (I know we are expected to eat into Matrixyl eventually - but just for now say we do not).

Worse case is Zenakine ends up being an average product. So that £300M / 200 = £1.5M of which we (SBTX) get roughly 10% so that would be £150K. That is a worse case.

Our share price "excitement" is assuming Zenakine just might be quite good..... If that is the case CRODA would eventually need to sell roughly £50M of Zenakine (or 16% of that £300M).....

CRODA have quite a few anti-aging anti-wrinkle etc ingredients.... So £50M will not be child's play.... But is doable if Zenakine is considered better than other Croda ingredients (including hair and shower gels).

So why are we soooooo optimistic? If you click the biodegradable button on Croda product search and set percentage 99% to 100% only about 5 products appear. One of them being Zenakine. Then on top of that you have the excellent clinical trial data and then on top of that all the various advantages of using Zenakine (it has more advantages than most products) then it might possibly imply Zenakine is going to be a blockbuster.

So currently we are still a Schrodinger's Ingredient - it could be a damp squib or it could be a block buster or it could be OK .... We just do not know.

But we will begin to know in a few weeks time.

Cheers Net.

There is only one new cosmetic ingredient that Croda seem to be promoting (Zenakine) and it is right at the top of their active ingredient search (they call it a "product" but we dont want to get into that again):

https://www.crodabeauty.com/en-gb/products??productranges=3¤tPage=1&pageSize=20&sortBy=recommended&lang=en-gb

Shy:

your links dont actually answer WIILGs questions as they say what SBTX stuff does, it does not say what SBTXs competitor lysates do.

But thanks for posting, they were interesting in their own right.

Cheers Net.

Since SBTX in their recent presentation were at pains to point out that "international hotel groups" were present at the ZENAKINE presentation I thought I'd point out that Radio 4's "sliced Bread" programme went into all the Sleep related products available for Jet Lag and more importantly their prices and the size of the market.

I found the "Sliced Bread" program interesting and relevant for ZENAKINE sales information:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0029zn4

Apologies shy...

O/T means OFF TOPIC....

It was not meant to be read if not bored etc

I can ask for the thread to be deleted if people find it offensive.