Member Info for NelsontheDog

Hi Metal

From 0 posts to 25 a day eh? And you are still not invested citing all sorts of worries and concerns, some valid and some absolute garbage. I'm positive JLP, anti Leon, and if I can see your posts as nice guy trolling then you really arent doing a good job - youve come on a little too strong I think. There isnt much to say at present until we get some comms so why dont you, like most here, chill and revert back to a time when you didnt post 25 times a day- us JLP LTH's call that time Monday. :)

UKbbbb,

Lol - it doesnt matter what date or time it says and that you show up upon. I guarantee that theTurkey would not be cooked despite JLP having 3 ovens - none of which can seemingly cook a Turkey. The chat would fee lovely though, and next years Goose will be a whopper!

Couple of items on my mind here;

1. I am increasingly concerned for the lack of operational progress at Paradox. Its now been a considerable time and suggests the Setanta1 plot, or simply at the current oil, this is a borderline project. I need CH to produce an interview on the activities and direction we are currently broadly considering I think to smooth my furrowed brow here.

2. Iwonttell - did you just agree with your own post? Maybe a post removed but looks odd as i just read it.

In reference to Tjate I am in agreement with Northern. I suspect in the sale negotiation the buyer refused to assign any consideration to Tjate so JLP opted to keep it. Its a wild card and the neighbour may come knocking at some point, but no-one else will.

I am surprised by this latest fall in Share price - despite saying I was fully loaded here, I have added at this level. The potential income on offer versus the cost to buy in is just very very good at present. Yes there is risk but I do think the share is too sold at present and should come back to 5p+ in the near term.

The acceleration and speed for the next 12 months is up for discussion, but the direction is clear - up. The case is a robust engine with clear parameters and given I have a nice warm corner seat, I see no need to look for another bus for the next 12 months.

Kalan remains in the centre of things by posting the most positive, agreeable and rational of posts, followed quickly by a stinker on his t/o targets. Fair enough and the two positions are not in any way contradictory. Everyone entitled to their own targets / thresholds - I agree the 2 year forecast and there is as ever with JLP a lot to like, but my takeover targets would be a little higher - at least double digits - otherwise I may as well wait two years and get there organically (i know - execution failures etc). However a takeover would have the non-financial benefit of allowing me a graceful exit of what has been the most stupefyingly bumbling of investments. Grace is overrated.

To me, the interview does a great job of laying out the investment case for PAT. Park settlement claims for the moment and consider a potential claim win in the region of $2.5 billion (with high gold price). Our current MCAP is say 2% of that amount and the decision is potentially 15 months away. In similar cases the pennies in the pound of that settlement rise as it gets closer to a conclusion - to up to 30% - that would be a 15x from here. This allows derisking via partial sells and is the core of the investment case.

Early settlement? Not relevant to above case, but lovely if it comes - wild card like a company being bought out.

Settlement win /loss - huge risk as we get closer and there is more in the price - it is an arbitrary win lose. However canny dersiking should see anyone minded to do so achieve a free ride before any decision.

Tucking them back in the sock drawer for now.

I assumed they would use a proxy company but never heard of this myself.

Has there ever been a case in arbitration where rather than settling, the larger party simply makes a hostile bid for the listed party? pAT at £45m market cap - a £200m bid would likely succeed - fire MB - drop claim. All a misunderstanding? I may be slow but only just occurred to me.

Yes - its all a little disappointing on the share price front and so, with low oil prices now and forecast into 2026, I thought id see what was reported. Reuters in link say that yes, Oil deals are down as a result of the low oil price, but that Asisan entrants and a yoy higher gas price are pushing up natural gas investments. Who knew? Hopefully CH!

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/upstream-oil-gas-dealmaking-down-third-quarter-oil-prices-stayed-low-2025-10-22/

Disgruntled, disappointed, disaffected. Let down. Some other options there for you.

As you say Shuvlin, the void of info can be easily cleared by communication - just a forecast or a here’s the latest. We all pretty much know we won’t get it though. Lots to be optimistic about here soon but management don’t seem to be in control from afar.

Big relief to hear that news.

Pleased to report that whilst we have been chatting in the car park, the share price has driven on to its highest level since 2021 - onwards and upwards!

I would love an early settlement and business pragmatism says it is the right result - PAT get speedy money, GoR get to start mining, GoI get reduced exposure.

BUT, this is politics and civil service - pragmatism and value for money are trumped by conservatism, personal advantage and existing protocol & process. From afar, at the heart of the issue of early settlement is who is paying it? The claim is brought to GoI under the relevant treaty, but it is the decisions of a separate group, the GoRajasthan, who caused this issue. Do those two bodies communicate well, if at all? Are they politically and mission aligned? The only way I see early settlement is if GoR front the money to GoI to speed their route to mining (and brown envelopes) - is there even a process or precedent to do this?. However suits GoR to ignore claim and let GoI take the hit - there may not be a process for GoI to charge back the money to GoR - in that case it is career or political suicide to accept a $500m charge ahead of a successful claim for $2bn - so even if a pragmatic civil servant drives a settlement, the minister would ask for clarifications to send it back to the long grass - the politician would be remembered as giving the $500m rather than saving the $1.5bn.

To be clear I havent researched these links between GOR and GoI so would appreciate a view from those in the know. My above is based on 6 years commercial consulting into UK and European governments as to how the thoughts and ultimately money move and my own resulting education as to the difference in government as opposed to business orientated logic and pragmatism.

GLA

NtD

So much as I would love an early settlement I dont even countenance it in my thinking. Would love it to happen though and will be delighted to eat these words as soon as possible.

GLA

Indeed Wiggly, why? Perhaps Adonis, like many born into wealth individuals is more prioritised on saving face and reputation than in driving his wealth when it really come to it. To do other than back this horse, would impact his reputation enormously and its easier to continue working at it and kicking it (gently) down the road than withdraw - the money isnt needed for the family and in the meantime I get smoke blown in all the right places whilst I live the CEO first class life and maintain a persona (even if many close to him have a view he isnt up to it). I add this is pure speculation but relevant in counter balancing or discounting his continued investment as an indicator of success. It may simply be a necessary evil to maintain reputation, or maybe he has bouts of bad judgement when it comes to investing!

So Adonis is putting money in. Not sure that raises his stock, or lowers it to my level in that he is investing in a company that seems incapable of delivering successful revenue.

Ae they still noodling for the wire? Have we got a transformer yet? I still like the prospects here but the lack of BAU recovery is beginning to make me worry that I shouldnt have invested in this bunch of massive gasholes and wannabe gasholes.

I get the point you make Wiggly, but you inadvertently (i think) touch on a sad truism of this share. An opposing view of the no need to rush wait for CPR strand, is the fact there is no revenue and a perpetual loss making corporate platform with multiple opportunities all requiring investment. For me, this is the fundamental lifestyle company. Adonis and Co living a large life on the Chariot ticket, a ticket that has no substance in commercial success.

Why rush, why make yourselves uncomfortable - perhaps a lack of going concern (without investor cash calls) would qualify as a reason.

As a result I only trade on this rather than hold now, but Loukas, when?; Anchios how and when?; Green Hydrogen - when profit? Nothing has fundamentally changed in about 3 years.

Given JLP track record over 4 years, that isnt a high bar to be ahead of JLP on processing Copper. Saddens me to say that but results dont lie (unlike forecasts)