Member Info for NelsontheDog

Welcome ultra.

My holding is about 6% of my pf at this time. That’s a high allocation for me.

Good luck!

NtD

I agree I thought there would be more speculation - especially now we are at test phase.

I am assuming we go up on good test result - new high would be logical - 8-10p+

Then on a half decent timeline to production (ie if it can be within 6 months- 10-15p.

Just guesses before I get mauled.

I think at long last its time to start getting excited about the what if of this production test. Hopefully confirms there is a monster lurking down there in the depths.

GLA

NtD

I wish i wasnt in as I might buy now at a much better price - my average is an eye watering 26p! . However I probably wouldnt buy now on my new check list (always adding to this - been investing for 20years). Im not averse to cash raises but I dont feel TEK have control or a handle on this element. They have 4 if not 5 young mouths to feed and that is v difficult. So this would probably fail my list as its not clear what the future cash is going to be and market isnt yet back on our side. Final point, and its not a common view - I think Cliff is great - great idea and executed it well I think - however it needs a boss or at minimum hard nosed commercial / finance person to be involved imho so on the checklist it might also fail for leadership team.

But I am already in the tepid water and Im not willing to sell at this level of discount to market value.

Hi Steamy,

Sorry to see you go but can totally understand your reasoning. I had same thesis as you - e games and similarly disappointed on the Dynasty saga. I always thought the Satoshipay was the lottery ticket - unlikely to win but maybe just maybe, and so far that seems to be right as in slim chance.

Im only continuing to hold due to the Crypto bull run - if and when the run starts to froth we will see if Pendulum / Nabla / new thrird protocol have any legs at all so I am willing to limp on a bit longer.

The only new alarm bell for me is the third protocol - crypto is fast moving programmers and I would have thought that colaberation is better than development ie partner with another group already doing the elements you need - either that isnt working, or maybe our resident Neghead is right and their global trips arent pulling the connections they should be as they are not doing the job of networking correct. On the networking front, no mention of partners, no advance links to existing FX partners - it would be normal for the team to be evidencing they are making steps toward marketing what they are building a little more in case we thenk they are introverted techies by mistake!

Good luck elsewhere and I look forward to you getting back in at 1p for the meteoric rise - lol!

I really like the videos - always good to see the scale of what assets are in the possession of JLP. In case a JLP person ever reads the board though, personnel should only ever be seen using hi tech/expensive/big kit. In both Sable and Roan there is a man with a shovel (does not indicate scale) and in Sable video there are men manhandling the copper sheets. These images arent on message - that message being look at our shiny kit and sophisticated processes (we arent just men with shovels you know...). Thats about 5 seconds from a 3 minute clip.

It may be frustrating, it may be slower than expected but the money is going to flow in very soon and with that the share will be re-rated.

Mikie,

Thank you for the intervention and honest view. As a recent naysayer about LC and the comms, I agree wholeheartedly with your assessment of the future and that we (I) should give it a rest. I will cease - it is not cathartic to do so anyhow. Of key note I would say that I never lost faith in the company prospects and I think most other holders the same - never sold and will not sell this side of 20p if not 30p. That is due to the positives you and others mention. I still think this is a core retirement holding for me and I remain excited for the future.

If I was Cher (golly, where is this going...) and I could turn back time (phew), I just wish I hadn't had this as my stock to share with others. I always have a growth stock share if asked and this has not done me proud.....yet! (the current if asked tip I have is ZPHR but I don't love the story as much as the JLP one (but the comms are exemplary)- JLP disruptive value from waste is such a fantastic story and it hasnt gone anywhere. And who doesnt love a growth share anyhow.

Cmon Roan, and Cmon a host of other growth attributes!

NtD

This has always been a slow burner i think. Just because we have posters on the board as opposed to when John Lewis checked in each day, doesnt mean the pace underpinning the share has changed.

Unless we hear otherwise this is 98% likely to be a 2+ year journey, or, 2% chance of settlement.

We are just pleasantly filling time with discussions on acceptable claim size etc. Hopefully the share will move up on news of case progressing and a disclosure of its magnitude but 98% likely this is a slow burn. 2% is there just to fire our imaginations and give you justification for picking up that pamphlet on antartcia cruises or new cars etc.

GLA

I like this settlement range discussion. If offered I think I would be happy around the $200m to PAT settlement area - not sure what that is in total with our partners cuts but hard to argue against whilst we are so very much lower at present - of course i would like more but just being honest on my levels.

However I am a little more pessimistic in my overall view - I dont think the GoI will humour early settlement - that would take an official making a positive move and determining it - I dont think you get thanked for that in political life - taking positive steps that dont give a benefit headline to the maker of the decision. So my guess is still we go into arbitration in some way and this has a lot more time to run. I can wait, but I would much rather 15x and go now than lose time and bear risk for longer- its not a given no matter what laws and opinions on them are in place.

India may tear up its Australia agreement - its a superpower in the making and at some point will flex its muscles - who is to say that an international trade agreement with a non-BRIC power will not be caught in the crossfire and with that our claim withers on the vine.

Hence 15x now whilst not life changing, would certainly be a big boost and very welcome.

GLA

NrD

Been here 3 years I think now and this is why we cant lean into this yet - the numbers are phenomenal but we cant really even frame the discussions till the NOA is made with a number for the claim - that number will be a tempered amount backed by mining, accounting and legal professionals and effectively is the starting gun.

I dont believe an arbitration outcome would be a royalty based solution and personally I would not want to agree this anyhow as a settlement. Once a bad actor in a deal, always a bad actor.

So in meantime we can discuss (it is very interesting) and speculate and hope for a settlement out the blue. The rest is like trying to fly the plane from a seat in economy. I also dont want to distract Mark (the pilot) too much. He cant give us the key info yet and we have to trust in his stewardship. So far his values seem pretty aligned to what I want anyhow.

Good luck all invested.

NtD

7.8billion, not million

Those costs of 12oo/oz. Still leave 7.15m oz x $1100 profit to PAT prior to the issue. It is not PATs business that now under new regulatory conditions, India is taking more of the share of profits.

$1100 x 7.15m oz is still $7.8m.

I am sure we did have some parts to pay on the claim but perhaps our opening number is more likely $3-$5 bn rather than the circa $1bn number I was thinking?

If our potential claim at arbitration starts at $16.7bn, then the mind boggles. I would happily accept 25% today from the GoI - $4bn - or to put it into my own personal terms - rich!

Thanks for the Owais post. What may be relevant and absolutely critical to our claim is where Owais have got the 113m tonnes estimate (I am very confused - 113m tonnes v 7.6m oz). If the auction tender documents disclosed a size of the Bhukia resource in their documents, then surely our lawyers can obtain this for the latest view of the arbitration damages - this could be critical and if released by the GoR or GoI in a formal transaction process could massively uplift our claim value.

I could only see Vela managing to create this position. So if AZDblah blah has a successful outcome the rewards could 20x the recipient. However with an ongoing legal dispute firing up as to who gets the benefit the action on SP will be muted until agreed who owns - which could take years - so Vela with a foot in both camps wont see any benefit for years even when lightning strikes!

And whilst ownership is in dispute, who is putting their shoulder to the wheel to get things done? Not really a position set for success is it?

This covid AZD investment is the gift that just keeps giving - but giving in the man to a lady sense of the word indeed.

Adding my own stupid question for those with knowledge of such things. What is the typical recovery rate for the resource in a mine such as this. ie of the potential 10m ounces of gold in the ground, what is a reasonable recovery percentage - or is this already factored in the initial resource quantity?

Its not quite something to do with us, but we have to think along the lines of will Owais ever pay that 60%? No they wont and once they are fully attached to the claim and going, the games can begin with reductions to GoI commitments and additions to some of the worlds fattest brown envelopes. Thankfully this isnt our problem to deal with and they can aid our claim in the meanwhile.

YES - top up opportunity i think

A full year of unexpected delay and rework has left only the stoic strong silent types left here. We are all Charles Bronsons Clint Eastwoods, Audie Murphy and the odd Randall Scott types - as such we are not a ramping bunch and when this comes good may if overtaken by the emotion tip our hats silently to one another (assuming we will never see each other again and can risk the indulgence of over familiarity).

Its not just the oil that needs to be extracted from the West for this to be won.....

With big increases in revenue to come plus an evidenced revenue to date, for new capital are we not reaching a point where loan financing may be appropriate as a third way of funding. With the new pits bought you could even link the resource levels to the loan - plus the resources in our other secured waste, plus the substantial facilities we have built. If possible I think the time for loan finance is here rather than dilution - we are confident we are leading to enormous revenue inflow increases, so the risk is small and in worst case a later capital raise can pay off the loan if the free cash flow doesnt.

If LC can gain a substantial loan backed by the Tjate title - I will say all is forgiven!