Member Info for NelsontheDog

I very much like the way the rns is phrased - giving stepping stones of value.

Looking at the potentially larger size of the claim- the new bidder is saying he can sustain giving 65% of the gold to the government. That implies worst case they make 65%x $17billion of gold profit. That may be our opening salvo claim size - $11 billion! Sure that needs a present value discount as the payments are over 20 odd years at least so let’s say a discount factor reduces it by 1/2 to get to a net present value - $5.5 billion.

Agree your point Frogkid in relation to rude behaviour. I dont think we need to call names on who - it just validates behaviour. Its the differences of view I believe that bring most of us to the BB's (or at least it is for me). We dig around or just jump to form our nuggets of opinion and often then clench them tightly. Its only in the fullness of time that you then see if your nugget was pulled from a crack in quartz and bears gold, or, was just pulled from a crack...

I like this board in particular because there are varying views, usually polite posts and I usually feel most are holders of the stock and therefore have more in common with me than against me.

Just adding a couple of more points;

36-2 flows. Presumably if acidity flush doesnt free up the gloop, then the well would be prepped in a methodology more akin to fracking and as such production should still be achieved. If that is so, then on production a revision to recoverable reserves should be possible and as such (assuming they increase) there will be options for resource based lending to expand, somewhat alleviating the cash and debt issue. If that is true then the criticality is by how much the reserves rise, ie the recoverability assessment - there will be a rise in reserve either way?

One final point I believe our insurance necessitated that Zephyr front costs and then are reimbured by insurance - that has an impact on cash. In turn as a company buying assets, premiums paid on purchase of assets - goodwill - are written off to profit and skew the otherwise underlying profitability.

What is absolutely certain is that production is key. Key for cash, key for profit, key for reserves assessment, key for lending, key for credibility and most likely key for external parties to bow into the room.....

Hi Seek,

Thank you for your view and finances summary. I am positive on sentiment here overall but do acknowledge the point on 16-2 -it was handled poorly and brushed under the carpet somewhat.

Until August test after acidity there is still risk but less risk I think than we had a year ago - hence my frustration at SP this week.

The party line is that gas treatment works needs to be appropriately sized for the opportunity but 16-2 does haunt - we will have a much better view in a month or so. We faulted the BoD for not calling out the salt at 16-2 and now we are calling them out for calling risk on this well - a little hypocritical but thats a typical trader view. As an investor I appreciate their cautionary warning.

I dont think the above is delusional - oil stocks are a gamble but i do think this is very close to coming good (there maybe by your terms this is the delusional bit!)

Hi Gallmat

Im sure you are right and with your dealings have a much better view than me in my armchair. To be honest if i had the calibre of person of Mark available as a negotiator / deal maker I would absaolutely let him run - within the parameters agreed. My point was meant to be more that LCM like us need to get to payout and as the ultimate funders can have a large say if not right of veto - money upfront gives you a very very strong voice.

Good stuff - hopefully that extension signals the way fro MITECO to grant the permits asap - then we can power on to double digits and beyond (well double digits - beyond is maybe a little far!)

We have lawyers and advisors funding this phase, key of which is LCM- they will be calling the shots on timing to go as fast as possible whilst in no way risking their aim at the big pot of gold at the end of the rainbow so to speak. Mark will form part of the process but LCM in the driving seat. Fortunately their goals are pretty aligned to ours as shareholders, so frustrating as it may be, this isnt a sham or an Aim lifestyle company - LCM get nothing but bills till GoI / GoR pay up - they are highly motivated and will be laser focussed - if they believe this cant be rushed, it cant be rushed, if they say go, we go. In other words we as shareholders dont need to bark and pester Mark etc - we have got some pretty fierce bulldogs in place to do this on our behalf and as such can sleep easy imo. Just need to manage patience.

I think the approximately in the "approximately 4 weeks" is about to start doing some heavy lifting. Dont ask for further guidance - it will be with us shortly....

Stocktease!

My guess is that the operatonal update is being held to allow for a positive on Roan. I am now fairly relaxed - it will be what it will be, but if it were me I would want enough time to commission the electric component and then a period of time after so that I could give weekly throughputs rising - that way I dont get caught on the electrical issue but forward face to when we anticipate hitting operational capacity (and then keep back a little for an upside if it occurs).

ie the comms are we are ramping up production after full build and pushing onto expected capacity of xxxx by xxxx. We will see.

In the meantime there is plenty of other stuff - Chrome expansion, other circuits expected, and of course our UAE mega deal - if they can drop news of that it could really supercharge the news.

I understand that point IslandG, but Adon's prior posts have always been informative and on point - this post is more out of character and who knows? - however if i had inside knowledge there is no way I would allude to it anywhere, but especially on a share BB.

I will not rely on it but add to the pile of hope already in abundance here. Equally, the appearance of some FUDdy duddys trying to lower the price yesterday for their buys also tells me we are not as yet doomed.

I confess I am a little upset by the reaction this last few days - something needs to come out to explain the change in sentiment and also the businesses desire to seemingly downplay the news. For me it will be either a raise of funds, or an announced partnership involving issuance of shares (Adon?). I just hope this phase is shortlived.

GLA

NtD

I was just wondering the same on listing. Money for salt drill, infrastructure costs and more drilling perhaps?

Quite disappointed here but the long term should still give back plenty here.

Really hacked off with the price action - what has happenned to the small cap market in the UK - totally bizarre.

Adding to the conspiracy - maybe Colins noticable attempts to remain dedpan and not his usual grinning self are also around trying not to cause any froth that could make sp rise - I am now wondering very much if a partnership deal of some nature is in the frame and involves a partner taking a percentage of shares at around the 5p.

Feels a little like the SP was dropped yesterday so that a strong rise today in Share price would leave it in the low 5's - I am probably overthinking but why would you want to manage SP to mitigate rise due? Maybe a partnership of some nature is closer than we think?

Mention of strategic partnership considerations to develop the paradox. O took that as big news - wever referenced it before but that felt like a real statement of intent comment. The team seem to be well versed on deal making so lets see where that element goes in the mid term.

As a trivial aside - it felt like Colin was deliberately trying not to do his usual grinning like a cheshire cat approach - only really cracked on saying goodbye. I take that as a good sign - wants to look steady for the mid cap large cap industry players he is going to be going into discussion with imho.

Exciting times!

Very happy with that. Still we wont see a plan till a second test in august so a little longer to understand the route to production plan. However as Stally says below 1350 boepd on a choke - that seems pretty good.

I would hope that the market takes not of this and our share price at a minimum gets back into the sevens - where we were before the original 36 crumpled - not sure i will sell any but its about time that we had a less risked price following the high output and the higher condensate and low water.

Great news and I hope the oilers on here can provide a more technical based review today.

If this closes back at 5 then that is the mother of all tree shakes and should be investigated for market manipulation as either

a) there is news tomorrow and this was a shake to buy shares more cheaply, or,

b) there is not news tomorrow and this was to trigger short stops (in the most aggressive manner I have seen in some time).

The next RNS may see us finally back on track after the delays.

I am hoping that in addition to the well test results we have a lot more on the options or decided route to production (hoping this is needed). Prior to the blow out ZPHR were always 1 step ahead in deals, plan and comms and hopefully this next RNS will see that return.

Very excited for the test result but moreso for the dates we can start selling any production (again, assuming a good result there).

In the meantime I am very surprised at the share price - like Northern I was thinking we hity double digits with good result and a clear within 6 months route to production.

It may be a long week of 7 am RNS checking in store.

Just highlighting we should be getting an operational update for the end of year. It was 20th July last year. V busy at moment but i wonder if it will be this week.

I would expect that our FD has the bones of the report ready and it is just if JLP want a positive post year end update that could see this delayed till there is full Roan commissioned in order to draw a line under that element.