Member Info for NelsontheDog

Hi Kalan,

Not all labours effect is inflationary. IMO Demand will be suppressed as wealthy look to hide money and not put it out into "risk" when there is an as yet unknown need for more tax take. Hunkering down whilst you await the new economic conditions is never good for economy or investment. On that basis you could argue that an interest rate cut today would have no effect - not till budget anyhow.

I dont have too much concern on his leaving - even if there is friction with Leon. Whilst I agree CFO's are 10 a penny, good ones are not and great ones are even rarer.

I hope they pay top dollar for a good one with a mandate given that allows them to become great. The role regulates and controls the board - its more than just checks and balances - especially with a charismatic headstrong and mildly chaotic leader already in the frame - a poor CFO will be risky, a great one effortlessly supports and adds steel to the company resilience on all fronts.

I have been ill with Covid this last few days and whilst not truly suffering I am having the most odd reality like dreams. Last nights offerings were a recurrent view of there being a huge riot on my street with a police riot van and cordon right outside my house - kept repeating and also another in which I wake and discover EUA is sold when I log on and check RNS's.

So real and very disorientating - to the extent that I checked the curtains on getting up to see if the riot was there....

*coat.....[exit stage left - no dignity now left to save!]

Sorry . Lue not Lau, I will get my cost, lol.

See Kinva Lau,

Excretia agitation of the highest order so far.

You sound very intellectual and learned in your prose but essentially the "pivot" you raise is present in most growing companies - not that fascinating and the professorial approach slightly slips when you call any holders view as "hopium" and slate the board in another forum. The stink on this board is coming from the lau.

The PGM council video posted here (thank you) also alluded to an emergent reality that ICE cars are not reducing in the way forecast by market with Hybrids accounting for the new "green" cars, not electric. As such forecasting a higher demand from ICE cars for longer.

Do we actually have any verification that ENOG CEO made those comments - printed in an unauthored report does not mean he said it.

And thats the clever part - if it is a slur its deniable (but you can hold that denial for a while, and in the meantime its hard to respond to as he may deny saying it. Very clever, but i hope AP responds to the press report forcing a rebuffal or escalation by Enog - sitousery of the highest order with big stakes for us holders.

Cmon AP, get your fighting trousers on this morning - they are trying to make a mug of you. ENOG CEO is either with you or against you right now - call him down off the fence!

Part II - as to where Leon fits in if we start to buy rather than create. Well I think he fits in amazingly well - his past project performance is sub par at best but his deal making abilities have always been absolutely Platinum plated Sorry) - more of his time here, and less time getting continuously kicked in the pods delivering projects in a harsh environment and he may gain a new boost of life from shareholders. Ie he could become a boardroom pioneer rather than a field one.

If we have a bolt on strategy for growth and a top top M&A man at the helm the sky is the limit.

From the RNS's it does appear Thutse 2 may have slipped (from August to end of quarter terminology). I agree this is annoying and damaging to the JLP reputation but its 10% of Chrome output x 9 months production x 30% of forecast profit (Numbers need fixing) so circa 2% of forecast x 1/12 (1 month) slippage. Therefore I hope Neal or any other analyst isn't sweating too much yet. Neal appears to have tackled this on copper by only adding steady state assets to the forecast and I can understand why given the multiple delay occurrences.

I have now aligned my position to follow Neal - from being project focussed and critical to the separation of steady state operations from project pipedream, sorry, pipeline..... from a romantic to a numbers focus

JLP almost now (with Roan up to capacity) have enough scale that the underlying flows are good enough to float our share price via cash flows. As such I am going to list the projects but start to think of these as operationally relevant rather than strategically relevant - ie I will rely on the steady state Neal forecast only and just take heart that projects are in the pipeline and coming (I'm going to totally ignore delivery dates etc for the sake of my blood pressure and understanding).

What I would say will become relevant very quick with this approach from a financial return perspective is that buying existing production rather than commissioning our own projects is likely to be cheaper given our project team performance (again an observation, not laying blame). ie as underlying performance gathers scale, it becomes an asset management excercise for the entity and in this sanitised light, different tactics to expanding metals output via inorganic growth may come to the fore.

IE we may be seeing the maturity of the company and the removal of reliance on hard charging pioneers at boardroom level and the beginning of business managers as per any scaled business. A sure sign of becoming a smaller large business entity.

This is head over heart thinking and as a Factory Cost accountant as my original skillset i will always be in my happy place looking at production but that isnt the future of my investor mindset here.

Well, the volumes are back to lower levels but the PEN price is still knocking on higher levels. My assumption is that as PEN is used more in apps and actual transactions, the volume will rise and the price. However it seems its not a hot potato yet, even if it may wrapped in tinfoil and near the fire.

I am bizzarely optimistic on this at present but that may be as much hormonal as it is based on any empiric or qualitative information.

Id like there to be an announcement of a credit facility secured by the assets in SA and Zambia. Then we can go at a relative speed in this key time of development.

In regards to IRH - My feeling is that JLP are not rushing into this rather than IRH slowing - maybe JLP would rather develop their own agreements on copper and fill capacity that way. The IRH model means halving if not more than halving our marginal earnings, whereas the bolt on small site strategy allows us to fill capacity with 100% of proceeds.

The issue becomes when JLP want another big processing plant but from a strategic point of view, what does the IRH strategy do for us? Lower margins for ever with JLP sharing its proprietary knowledge in return for financing? Surely there are better deals on offer?

I am sure I am oversimplifying but IRH and large caps dont usually deal unless they can get the lions share of deals - we may be inviting a hungry man into our food store because he has a weeks worth of food - but then we have to feed him forever. I dont want that distraction personally and I hope Leon and co might be forming the same view.

So - can those wiser and more sage, remind me why I should love the IRH deal?

*1st Line - Can't follow

I like Leon's enthusiasm but after a few years - I can follow what has happenned, is to happen and when it is to happen - it washes over me. His determination to not acknowledge deviation from past plan makes it hard to grasp the underlying facts.

Hence the FD presentation. Now we have a forecast based fully on what is already installed and ready to go. Ie fact. In place. In Existence. So a dry forecast meeting where he states the forecast dynamics for each element (based on what exists) would provide a very powerful baseline of the underlying details - lets face it - if it werent for Seis and Gray and others on this board, we wouldnt have a clue.

Once this dry comms is in place, Leons next FIF (Future is Fantastic) presentation has a basis to start from and is easier to understand and therefore has more impact. Ideally we then get a two heads presentation,.

1. Neal - What we have and what that means. Factual, timebound, specific and measured.

2. Leon and The art of the possible - dynamic fast paced growth building on the hard won learnings that now physically sit on our balance sheet as testament to the pioneering and scientific expertise brought to bear over a sustained period of time, etc, etc....

So I topped up - 4.9p on the nose buy price. Not a big top up but I am already quite overweight on this share - but this drop will not be sustained given the forecast for copper given at the last update.

I would like to see the FD break his expected FY25 forecast Revenue into the expected current view of PGM's, Chrome and Copper so we can see the % dependency on each. We have to move from the PGM model and also in doing so seperate ourselves from our more flat footed strategy wise competitors in that area.

I emphasise I think the FD should front this for market credibility - without Leon even on call. After 2+ years of Leon flannel all I hear is substantial... transformative...., Jubilee know how driving operational expansion, etc etc. I am not saying it isnt true.... but a change in voice and style and a drier forecast style review may be welcomed, allow market to digest the impact of the work to date in our revenue streams and begin to mend some bridges in our comms in the short term in relation to FY25.

Im pretty appalled by the share price and it does bring with it a sense of disquiet for sure - what is the market factoring that I am not? We have many down views on this board providing bear views but mostly they look more like attempt to improve entry position than informed.

What I am struggling with is how much is due to concern and how much is simply a void of money in the market. It was bad enough on aim prior to Labour, but the uncertainty of where their tax rises will land appears to me to be further stymying the market.

However I think this project is good - its onshore so should be okay even with falling oil price and there is a route to production emerging.

We need to conclude the partner / buy in / investor stuff so that the next development steps can be clearly set out I think - hopefully this can occur during this month and we can then see a path to production itemised.

In the meantime it appears this is our level and I do find that throughly depressing. I aim to wait however.

GLA

NtD

With the greates of respect Buttermilk it seems a little ridiculous to call copper a pipe dream. Years of development and millions of pounds of r&d and fixed assets with existing revenue and from RNS an outlook for more.

By all means you could validly state that copper its unproven as yet in the reporting cycle but pipe dream is plain ridiculous.

At the back end of last week moving from $2000-$3000 per day on volume to two days $60000-$80000 per day. Its dropped back for weekend but I will be interested if that volume returns - no idea what that means for satoshi cash but I think projects are go at last - whether that’s with a bang a clap or a fizzle we are going to find out with Nabla in process of rolling out slowly, and Vortex seemingly close.

After the egames debacle it’s the last hope I think. Either we make it backing the great white hope, or it’s going down attached to the great white whale!

Gla

NtD

And so I would expect that if they have decided on the partner approach they will efficiently achieve this. As in most commercial dealmaking, timeliness is as crucial as the numbers within it. I am optimistic with their track record at Zphr that we will hear news pretty quickly - even if the first step is simply partner on further 36-2 drill and get infrastructure ready to bring to production.

In the interview CH states they are looking at all options including a non-op partner - my guess is they are in dialogue with a financier type person for this element that would see ZPHR maintain full production control (or they are saying it to get an operator to lean in quicker). The down side of that is that ZPHR maintain full production risk and costs therein (without the injection of professional expertise a mid operator can bring).

I dont mind the route, but coming back to the first point pace is important here. Oil and gas has to flow from Paradox - soon!

Great result - the acidity improvement has big implications to the potential for this well and from the RNS the whole field. Feel mighty relieved and hopefully share price boosted by news also.

From the experts here, how much time and expense to add the horizontal extension discussed - circa 900 feet additional horizontal drill - i presume a specialised drilling unit is required?

I would like to see this occur prior to farm in if we have the funds - then moving to production is more feasible I think.

Every step counts....