Member Info for Neilius

“This one?
Baron Investments
@barondaytrading
Highlighted #RCH “

Guys, your names look new? Also, take care where you take your trading advice from because your preferred Twitter account buddy bought #RCH then he owns Reach PLC (a publisher?) rather than Rockhopper #RHK.

Still maybe not a bad thing as #RCH seems to have hopped up a bit lately...

It’s not going well is it! Lots of stuff on Twitter recently too...

“ Be extra careful folks I smell a pump and dump”

It’s a little overt tbh. I’m not sure they understand the scrutiny this forum gets but seen to have moved on from Hurricane Energy.
That said I’m quite happy to watch some cheery uplifting posts (however overly sunny they are) roll by rather than the endless depressing crap of late.
Now, if they can pump it up to, just slightly more than, 32p then I won’t argue with that either...
Ultimately the term is DYOR though...

Considering a “company liquidation value” only I was meaning to work out a sliding scale of OM award v share price. Has anyone done this or similar?

Would the board be allowed to buy shares if they knew internally an award was imminent?

I think it’s worth keeping in mind that we, RKH RIs, are definitely not the people Tony was talking to during this interview. He’s just haggled a huge deal to sort his company accounts out and balance the books, from there PMO will be a company with management time to concentrate on things other than rolling finance over. He’s a man who has shown he wants to grow the company’s production. He’s discussing paying down debt with his current balance of operations, finding other reserves in areas that they’ve no infrastructure isn’t any cheaper to develop than FI plus costs of FEED etc (which we know can be expensive!!!).
One thing I was reminded by a poster on the PMO page was that if they sell, say, Zama for a few hundred million then that debt repayment timeline either shrinks...or they have some new capital to invest.
Undoubtedly SL is some time off but medium term prices will rise, PMO will clear their feet, Italy might find some loose change...

Having watched the video Malcy basically gave Tony a free pass on Sea Lion saying that SL won’t be of interest with POO sub 50 USD and given the more immediate financing news this isn’t surprising

But...as a positive, Tony stated that banks are using 55 USD as a conservative price for future POO...that’s nicely SL viable territory, good to get that validation. He mentioned other territories but from recollection none of these would add as many bbls p/day as SL. That said all these guys know that they basically dare not mention SL as they their every utterance is sliced and diced by us lot...

Cyan2
I’d agree with all that though PMO should be less stretched once their refinancing is done and as it’s a longer term solution they have then management will be freed up to think about something other than refinancing every ten minutes.
Another variable is the US election, it’s going to be quite a sliding doors moment and pros and cons for RKH whoever wins. That said, trying to find something positive in amongst all the rest of this ****show is quite hard!
RKH is pretty much an excellent example of what happens when a company loses control and then momentum to outside forces. The board has made numerous mistakes but have ultimately burnt off the cash pile and steered this company to being at the whim of the Italian (!!) government to pay a bill and hanging precariously from the shirt tails of another oil company that’s finances are/were stretched to the absolute limit.
The only thing I find amazing about RKH is that a bunch of folks turn up at forums almost daily to chat about a share we get about 2 updates a year about...that’s worth next to nothing.

Hi Cyan,
Yes, there is a lot of information in that presentation and if my prediction that the oil price will rise around 15 USD once demand increases in the medium term then this looks like a plan that may work out.
I’ll be honest the fancy financial jiggery pokery they’ve done isn’t my bag but my bar stool financial reading of it is they are having to pay quite a bit of interest on big loans but the overall debt is reduced and the loan periods are noticeably to around first oil Sea Lion. I guess having to stop doing smoke and mirrors and having their toes put to the fire to actually come up with a proper plan for the loan people rather than kicking a can down the road every 6 months or so gives everyone a bit more confidence maybe?
A multitude of ways to read this as any report but I’ll take this, especially PH2 being back on (if they do PH1, they won’t wait that long for PH2!!) as a wee win I reckon!

One thing though, and maybe this is just the way these things go, but where is RKH’s RNS? They surely should be issuing the RKH relevant information in parallel??

Oops, forgot the link!!!

https://www.premieroil.com/sites/default/files/presentation/20201h-results-presentation.pdf

The PMO report is on the link below (hopefully!), I cant recall what was said last last time as regards schedule but given some reports of Sea Lion’s imminently demise I’m not sure whether to be happy, disappointed or maybe just relieved..?
Sea Lion is not completely discarded, that’s the “good bit”, farm our planned for the rest of this year, FID is now Q4 2021 (read that as kicked hard into the long grass), with first spud of development drilling Q1 2023 and first oil 2025....PH2 is back in the cards for 2030...
I do notice that of all the developments planned the FI sector has the most reserves though.

In short, bar OM, time to get the slippers back out of the cupboard...at least it’s not competent canned...maybe the farm out will bring a change of heart...

Ok, PMO having a rather rough day of it, I’ve never owned PMO before but just bought some at 27p...and...and given the news today, I’ve absolutely no idea what that company is now worth...

Off to stick my head in a fridge and cool down...

Just reading the PMO shenanigans and unsure how her will pan out but, from a RKH perspective, it appears PMO have reduced their debt loading and arranged loans over the longer term. My view is that is positive for RKH...or am I missing something?

Yes, RKH is a binary situation, all or nothing really, if the SL project actually started to move forward I think it would gain a lot of interest. I agree on the oil supply comments, the Saudis have wanted to expand their market share for years and OPEC also don’t want sky high prices either. Given the $/bbl needed to fund these countries it’s no secret that a 65/75 USD/bbl is around the range they’d like to maintain and can adjust the taps to do so, it was the American shale that was latterly holding the price down and it’s expected it will cost more than that to get shut in US shale wells back up and running.
As regards RKH and PMO, it is a straw to hang onto is that the OPEC economics also happen to work well for PMO snd RKH. The only thing missing now is demand or rather a vaccine, and then demand.

@Cyan2
I’d agree with that, I don’t think 49 USD is enough but it’s getting there (I think they reduced it to a 35 USD p/bbl cost). Ultimately these predictions are guesses but observations about the US shale (this collapse has been long predicted by many but COVID forced it into an earlier grave than expected) and that also the world has now seemingly accepted that any real objection to oil price monopoly manipulation type discussions are at such a high level they are acceptable. My view is that if the various dictators stay in charge then they presumably have learned (!!!) that temper tantrums don’t make good economics.
The US president may change this year, if it’s Trump then I guess the status quo will remain, if it’s Biden I presume that the US oil industry won’t get much help. I presume a renewed thrust to renewables but underlying that there may be opportunities for new supplies, especially, as we found in Italy, ones with a, relatively, enthusiastic local government.
This scrap heap of a year might produce more upside than it was possible to consider when there was -40 USD p/bbl...

Hi Folks,
One for the long term guys here, I’m not trying to ramp but just watching what are hopefully the green shoots of another commodity cycle. The below was from Rigzone on the 12th of August, the latest EIA oil price projections for 2021 are below.
“Looking further ahead, the EIA now predicts that Brent spot prices will average $49.53 per barrel in 2021, which is a slight reduction on its previous 2021 projection of $49.70 per barrel. “
It’s not hard to see that these sort of prices are heading towards SL sanction level prices. Certainly they would mean Premier would get more cash to reduce debt and more likely to sell Zara for a decent price.
I’ve also been reading numerous articles about the American shale drilling industry shrinking. This was previously always spoken about as being a source of oil and gas that could be turned back on quickly as prices rise but this appears unlikely now as banks foreclose companies and service companies are closing their doors (Halliburton selling of yards etc).
So...for all us grizzled, disappointed and slightly mad holders who are still here haven broken just about every rule of investing to HOLD whilst waiting for the mirage to become a lake...(or even a puddle!!) there might be, however faint, a light at the end of the tunnel yet...

“This time next year Rodney...”

All best, let’s hope OM comes in soon, (as in this year...).

My view is that it will either multibag, be bought out for a decent increase on the current price or disappear into a puff of dust.

Found The Times article.
It's behind the paywall but it was on the 1st December by Sam Chambers and is called "Premier oil battles against the naysayers"...

I'm sure I read a negative story about PMO in The Times last weekend as well, maybe another one who should take care about who they listen to or claim they have knowledge of. It's hard not to come to the conclusion there has maybe been a concerted effort to damage PMO.
As a further thought it's hard not to come to the conclusion we are nearing a tipping point for both companies. It's either a round of news of further extensions and the usual guff we have been getting for years about kicking the can down the road (which will kill even Nigoil's enthusiasm for this share) or it's going to go full bore bonkers. It's the binary situation we all know but it's apparent the answers to how this will all work out will come soon.

As another comment, a bit of a Sunday evening thought, I've noted a few folk making (not unreasonably) fairly muted "oooh this might hit £1" predictions on the future share price sometimes sparking a bit of a commentariat pile on of name calling.
But...given the share price previously hit more that £5 on less information and no confirmation of FID it does allow for a momentary lapse into a thousand yard stare out the window....

From PMOs Twitter feed at 16:47, 15th Dec, 2019

Premier notes today’s media speculation that a certain group of its lenders are demanding the further disposal of assets. This is factually incorrect and misleading. Premier continues to expect to conclude refinancing discussions in Q1 2020.