Member Info for Neilius

@Daikihaku1
That’s the best summary of “Life as a RKH investor” I’ve read!!

An actual fact to chew on, even with a +70 USD price the US rig increased this week by 5 rigs. 5…
OPEC+ managed to stay together, there will be stresses and strains but can anyone see this lot thinking that they’ll just throw in the towel and just pump themselves to <40 USD barrel?
No? Me neither.

Gents,
There is simply no news and mixed with low volume is taking its toll. There will be allsorts of folks trying different things to get the share to fluctuate not hard at suck low volume either.
No one knows what the judgment is but I’d say that, at minimum the court has not taken this long to decide to not give RKH anything and would at least cover their original investment of 29m Euro/USD or Bitcoin (be good if it’s the latter) but regardless whatever the news is, as Ovets says, you’d be mad to sell now. We are all, pretty much, underwater here. Just keep calm, get off this forum for a couple of days and go do some gardening or something.
Arguing, getting upset and name calling isn’t getting anyone anywhere nor will it change whatever the news is going to be in the next two weeks.
We’ve waited years for this, chill.

Hey @Godders99, last chance to scoop up sub 10p!??
Cheer up dude, look at it another way, the share price has doubled since Sept last year..!

I’d agree that basically those in are in and aren’t committing any more funds. I’m guessing most/all are underwater, some seriously. Those who aren’t invested, will, if they’ve any sense, only commit serious funds on the news rather than taking anything other than beer money on a punt now.
So we wait, again. Monday is July the 12th so we have 3 working weeks before the announcement is overdue.
Looking back at the posts I think the Argentinian government rattling its cage is most interesting. If SL was going to be potentially green lit then, I think, the U.K. government would, by some sort of diplomatic channel, mention this to them. With all that is going on in the world I find it hard to believe that the subject has come up on its own.
Anyway, all will be revealed for OM this month (suck a short time to wait!) and then the rest before the end of the year I reckon.
Tin hat on again, strap in, when it happens it could be bumpy!!!

The oil price may drop/crash but I think that those that due to the OPEC+ and US frackers working in tandem that, unless they fall out, they will pump to suit demand but not pump to the point the price drops low. Why would they? MBS, Putin, frackers etc have tried all that and surely have learned their lesson. My observations of the weekly US rig count is that there are a 'few' coming on line now (9 last week) which isn't suprising at prices in low to mid 70s.
So, considering SL, it is an interesting change, someone sort of mentions this below that the game is changing, HBR management are now maybe looking at SL with a realisation that they would rather negligent to not be pursuing SL. In the next 6 months the discussions about SL are going to change from "IF they will develop SL" to "When will they develop SL" and then "Why aren't they developing SL". In short in 6 months time they are going to start looking incompetent if they haven't and the long grass waffle will have to be replaced with a FID and project timeline or people are going to be asking questions as to why an out and out oil company is dragging its feet.

@CitizenTS, same, this is exactly what I’d have thought they’d be doing. For me this is news that SL is no longer on ice, the amount of FEED work having been done Premier engineers will be able to HBR management exactly what it’ll cost them to do any number of ways to tune the capex/opex, after that comes to decide how to deal with other partners and we all know that needs cleared up by September and notably RKH are having that meeting around then.
Q3 may be very interesting…

70USD per barrel and the US has only added 5 rigs this week. I’ve noted before that the big players have no interest in rocking the boat but I do wonder what the OPEC+ (and US frackers) target price range is? 80 USD would be getting toppy to my mind, even at that level, a relatively high price, is in the medium and longer term destructive to the industry as it justifies even larger budgets and momentum towards renewables. For RKH and SL the project is viable at oil prices well below today’s prices so it is hard to see what rational could be used to not be moving this project forward. Frankly, at a minimum, I find it hard to believe that any CEO worth their salt has not got a team actively looking at this project to get up to date figures as to what it would require to complete phase 1.

I’ve been fairly absent from here for a bit so I have maybe missed discussions about the meeting between the board and shareholders in September. With July presumably giving clarity as regards OM then surely September is where clarity as to Harbour’s intentions should be known also... it’s been a long hard wait but, for good or for bad it seems that we will find our answers out soon enough.

On the 23 rd of June....

Will they mention the elephant in the room???

Hi there,
The US rig count hasn’t increased much over the last few weeks, it has been pretty much flat.
Bloomberg with a review of the upcoming OPEC+ price negotiation issues over the next week, Iran potentially coming online with 1.5m barrels being one issue and the increased consumption, and when and how to fill the gap, being the other...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-28/opec-talks-to-offer-clues-on-next-phase-of-oil-supply-revival

Hi @Muchaboutmoney,
Yes, frankly the numbers could get very silly indeed. Your 180m USD = 127m GBP / 458m shares = 27.7p per share...I know folks will frown and say it doesn't work like that but...RKH with 180m+ in the bank has got a little room for manoeuvre and nothing like a bit of positive news to get some momentum again.

Hopefully not simply a manoeuvre into a larger more expensive office!!!

As an addendum to my earlier post it’s worth noting what Edison said in their last report (thanks to Glen for the reminder they exist).
It makes interesting reading as to what their predictions were in Apr 2020. Oil price predictions between 40-60 USD/Ppb and a 50m USD payout from OM (fees deducted) would be 8.5 p per share.
Their valuation was 24p....oh, how I would like to see that one day...

We don’t know when anything will or will not happen but I think that if SL is not green lit for the current commodity cycle then I am not sure it ever will. Harbour/FIG can’t continue to deal with it as the elephant in the room either, it’s all very well for Harbour to use the resource to boost their reserve numbers but saying it is project that is on ice due to the oil price doesn’t cut the mustard when we no have an almost monopolised oil price that seems to be being steered to remain between 60-70 USD. As oil economies get comfortable with this price they will become to rely on it and going for the quick buck doesn’t seem to be on the minds of US frackers anymore and it’s not like Biden can ask his oil industry to hurry up and pump more...
But back to SL, it’s viable at this price and, this price should be the lower area for the next cycle, can Harbour ignore it and put it on ice? Yes. Will it look sensible to do so? Maybe not. With squinty eyes and a slightly (!) biased look at it, it can appear to be a bit of a no brainier.

RE: RE: Vote him out now!!!Sun 19:57
****Remember Cut, paste add name and holding to list ****
Orient: 2million
Spacehoppa: 500k
Surfit: 500k
Bootledoger: 125k
Steve0 500k
Pre2rcd: 2.6million
Flipper: 135k
hewaits: 1.1m
markednmbr1: 455k
Daikihaku2: 200k
LaticsRule : 75k
LSEtown 750,000 ish
Godders 3 million
Ovets 800k
Glen 3.5MM (MM=millions)
LTT 350K
mike33 180k
kr2009 250k
Blinker 240k
Ephemeral 100K
CroftOriginal 167,005
Neilius 354k

Definition of most long term RKH shareholders:

“ I'm a spinless looser. I'll never take my money out. Too scared to crystallise the loss. Too scared that as soon as I liquidate this goes up by a factor of ten . I wouldn't be able to forgive myself. I don't for one second expect it to happen. I'm completely irrational”

If it’s any consolation you aren’t alone...! The only thing I’d add/ask is how many have told their better halves how much they’ve lost on this??

The “RKH funds are running low” is a comment I’ve read a few times, but RKHs overheads are minimal now and OM shall come in at some point plus PMO have said RKHs part will be covered until first oil (interesting to see if that agreement is sustained) but, as it stands, and as much as there is wear and tear to RKHs bank balance there should be enough cash one way or another to get this the line.

Frankly, if HE say “na, we will keep this on ice for a couple of years” then RKH share price is dust regardless of RKH balance...

My reading of this is that Sam or someone has been bending the ear of these clowns for information and updates as they are frustrated as the rest of us. Not surprising really, OM should be making cash and driving the company forward but it’s on ice because of this (and a formerly skint PMO)...

So we will get “still thinking about it” updates once in a while now...yay...

Up 6 this week, that’s a rise of 15 in the last 5-6 weeks. In short, nothing to see here...

I was a bit disappointed yesterday with the closing price and then looked back at the, roughly, 15% rise over the week and decided that it wasn’t that bad after all!

Rig count in the US is up 9, not surprised to see a rise given the prices over the last month but at the same time this is not a large increase. See how this rolls out over the next week but I think that none of these companies are pushing for a sub 60 USD/bbl rate.

750k by 09:30...