Member Info for Neilius

Momentum...we all know the logic, the potential is there, but sometimes, when the time is right, the board or management could put their shoulder to the wheel and buy a few of these damn shares with their own cash. Just to give things a bit of a shove...use that half a mil a year for some good, hell, he might even make a profit...

A lot of resistance at 10p, the last rally in price last year stalled at this level also before drifting down again. Not a share trading technical person but the next level up from here I see is pre-Covid Feb 2020 levels of between 16p to 20p.

Or 5.5p depending on how full or empty your glass is...

It’s looking like this might push through 10p today, we’ve had so many false dawns before...is this sustainable or will it cough and then trundle down again? A fair bit of volume so far today...folks trying to get in sub 10p while they can...

Been a few discussions on this lately and it’s possible that 20p would be achievable by the settlement received from the OM arbitration alone. Say adding 13p to today’s share price of 7p would take a payment of around (I know this company valuation would not happen like this but I use this example for scale) 60m to RKH (after fees).
Not impossible by any means.

Premier has some interests in Brazil (Ceara Basin), as well as another Mexican play so she could have been referencing those locations too.

Just a passing nod to the 350m GBP(?) claim mentioned which, if granted, would be around 72p per share...
Or after reading some old news reports the other day the original cost to RKH was 29m (can’t recall currency...) but cost plus actual money spent was mentioned being ball parked at 40-50m USD (30-36m GBP) or 6.5p to 7.2p per share...

That’s quite a broad spectrum and it’s all a guessing game but presumably any payout would be somewhere in between?

I agree with a lot of that but the one thing I noted was clearly stated about UKEF and their withdrawal from and new support for oil and gas projects was that this was limited to foreign projects. It was implicit that U.K. projects would be still considered.
But, as a wider point, if Harbour move to get UKEF support that inherently means they have considered SL, and at some level, consider it worthwhile.
We should have an answer to the OM by around the end of Q2, maybe some idea of Harbour’s thoughts by the same time?

Oil price...
I can’t see US shale producers getting much assistance or support from Biden and the recent consolidations of companies means that increasing production over simply making a profit to pay investors a return has swung towards profit...so I don’t see a huge driver to simply increase production there.
OPEC+ will gently open the taps as consumption rises, I’m not sure where we are with contango storage plays but I reckon at the current prices most will have been unwound by now.
Iran...if Biden signs back up to the previous deal then that may increase supply...no doubt they will happily play politics with the price but what is their capacity to pump now anyway? They’d presumably not want a low price either.
Bumps will happen but the US shale market was where the balance of power was held and prices capped by their almost mindless drilling and expansion. If that’s curbed then I can’t see the price receding much but the gulf economies and oil sweet spot of around 60 -70 USD/bl being more likely than not.
As per 2020, anything can happen but the above...? Thoughts?

Hi Buffit,
The license issue I did not know about, interesting. I still think this could all be bought out and green lit in a rather shorter time period than anyone has really mentioned on here. The logic of it all is falling into place as far as I am concerned. 6p is therefore ridiculous.

Going back to a point in my rather wide ranging previous post was that if Harbour (new name being used) decides to green light SL then surely the first thing they do is buy RKH?

If not, why not? They could do this without even announcing they intend to proceed with SL...

100m in the bank would be around 22p on its own, plus the logic for Sealion over Zama makes sense given that all SL needs is for someone to green light it (God forbid some bright spark thinks they want to re-design it all again!!).

The only thing is that I can’t see RKH surviving, they are bound to take it out. The only question is, when and for how much?

I always thought it would be post OM award but what if they take a gamble and just buy RKH at a premium to the current share price but factoring in that any low OM award would be essentially be offset by their inside knowledge of their intention to green light SL?

RKH is stupidly cheap at the moment, with the Premier Oil mill stone gone from around its neck this share, surely, can’t be honestly valued at a slight premium to the RKHs cash worth??

The oil price is above 50 USD, I’ve been in 3 international airports this week snd they are still quiet...and the US rig count only went up by a hand full of rigs. The new owners of US shale lands are wanting a high price for oil as much as the rest of OPEC+ are...no one is in any mind to rock this boat. As for chat on here about electric cars snd things, yes, all going on but before Covid hit the annual consumption of oil was still rising not declining.

I’m no ramper, I always try to read and consider this share in particular as balanced as I can (I’m is long term we but in no hurry etc) but 6p for this share is not where we are now. I can’t see these levels lasting.

Well, I hope so anyway, Happy New Year to y’all!

@Ovets
We should maybe ask LSE if we could get your post pinned at the top of this chat page and if folk read that first then it would save everyone a lot of time and energy.
I’ve found that by filtering some/all you mention I do get a lot more from this site. I notice the regular, but sane, posters are slowly realising that the easy thing to do is just not engage with the trolls and this makes the filtering work even process better.

I was surprised to see a rise these last two days, is this due to people buying after the price settling down after the last small spike?

@MikeJE

Wishful thinking? Maybe, maybe not; some analysis of how the transfer to a ‘green’ energy might play out below. It’s hard not to see how RKH and the other small oil producers might find a gap in the market to fill.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Could-Big-Oils-Shift-To-Renewables-Be-Good-For-Prices.amp.html

Hi Ralph et al,
Not wishing to get into an argument but that job is advertised as having a closing date to apply of the 3rd of November 2020.

Are these small trades automated?

Slience from the board and the share price starts its inevitable slide.

It’s been a positive couple of days but it looks like the rise is losing steam and let’s face it, we’ve had “light at the end of the tunnel” moments before.
This is where I don’t understand the lack of comment from the board? Even an upbeat commentary about noting the new arrangements are being looked at but appear positive or some sort of thing. It’s just the endless silence that kills any sort of momentum. Nothing...bar updates on the director share bonuses rather than purchases etc.
Come on board, say something!!! Anything!!!

A huge change in circumstances and an open goal opportunity for the RKH board to be active and drive the schedule forward.
Given experience I hope this isn’t one of those weird days where we end up in the red at the end of it!!!

@The Bear

No worries, all the best...