Member Info for Neilius

This share been slowly rising for 6 months and the news today did nothing to dispel the growing positive sentiment plus, I think, this share’s price has been overly slow to recover since Covid. It was consistently over 20p for years and that was on the basis of having a skint PMO as a partner and now we have properly funded HE. Nothing revolutionary to say a share is worth what people will pay for it but RKH has been basically priced at/or rather near, cash value for the last year. A bit of a punt at actually pricing some of the reserves the company owns isn’t surprising with the increased likelihood of FID.

@pysch8
If Harbour issued a RNS stating something positive about FI and SL I don’t think the price would stop at 40p.
Frankly, I think that all the companies involved in this process (RKH, HE, PMO, FIG, UKG plus plus) are very conscious of the fact investors are watching this very closely, and have been for years, and are super careful to barely mention it eg FIG statement about their new pier doesn’t even mention, or barley mentions the oil industry.

As I’ve mentioned before I’ve been watching the weekly US rig count to see if there is a build up of rigs that may bring the oil price down. The US frackers held the balance of supply pre-ron.
Well, the count is only up 1 more timing this week giving us an increase of 5 over the last 4 weeks or so and still they have only half the rigs working they had a year ago with a similar, if not slightly lower, oil price.
I’m just seeing a headline in The Times saying oil execs are keen to keep the price up too.
For RKH this is all good...

Watching to see if RKH can drag itself past the 10p is like watching paint dry....

Just a short note as I just realised I have been reading post after post of useful and interesting comments and research from a wide range of people with very little in the way of manufactured arguments or nonsense.
Thanks to all, this is the way it should be!

Perfect!

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-total-oil-idUSKBN2B00P6?taid=6045f5b71863800001748b09&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Or in RKH terms also known as 11p...

A good day at the end of what has now been steady trend doubling of the share price in the last 6 months, the next ceiling to break through is the one tested previously at around 10.37p. Maybe this coming week...
The other thing I wanted to mention was my contention that the US fracking industry business model has changed. With the oil price firmly in the 60s there were only 4 rigs added this week, which is actually 4 in the last 3 weeks and, as I’ve mentioned before, the ‘total rigs’ count is half of what it was pre-Covid. I can imagine that there will be more rigs coming online this week but I’m intrigued to see how many.

Good to see the licenses extended but even better to see that it appears that the project itself is far from dead and is looking very positive.
We have all known that this is a binary play, it’s all or nothing, and God knows we been close to the nothing a few times, but this is actually looking genuinely, without standing on your head and squinting your eyes, like things will progress.
Awesome!
Awaiting a classic RKH day...Oil up, positive RNS, waiting for numerous posters asking leading positive questions, the odd dark message about the world ending from some others, really high volume, ends in RED!! ;-)
Joking aside I hope that this is the first step on firm ground towards FID!

It doesn’t seem to like this 10p area...this time last year we were around 13p (woo!) and were trundling down to end up at 4 or 5p.
I can’t see why, with a sustained oil price of 60+ USD, that it should not continue trundling up. No Premier debt wobbliness any more either.
Fingers crossed for a green finish today...

@Bootledodger
I was about to write the same, everyone wanging on about Mexico and it is 12% of Harbour’s 2c reserves whilst the Falkland Islands is 43%.
That said, the way all these companies tip toe around trying to avoid mentioning FI or SL it’s kinda the elephant in the room...or, alternatively, the fifth elephant...

I’ve been taking a look at the weekly Baker rig count and two weeks ago exactly no rigs at all were added in the US...this week? Yep, not one....
Fracking may be continuing but the guys running the show in the US now are working to a different business model than a year ago when there were 394 more rigs working (or double that there are today.
In short, unless OPEC+ crumble then oil around the current price is here to stay I reckon...

The fluctuation in volume on this share is quite something, 3m yesterday, 0.5m today...but price still up...

A good day where I find I’m checking the stock app on my phone more than I normally do and having a slightly elated feeling about not being quite as diabolically up to my neck in this share than I was this morning.
Yay, only the cost of a decent second hand Ferrari to go and it’s gravy all the way...
Ffs...

15p?
I’d agree with that and said something along those lines a wee while ago, and that was just based on the OM issue never mind the half a billion barrels at 70 USD a pop...

Are we going to punch through the resistance at around 10p tho...big volume...

Even this guy seems to think recovering the investment and decommissioning cost is understandable and without lawyers costs, probably a chunk, at 35m that works out at 7.6p per share.
As for the further ruling we appear to be waiting on or the 275m (60p!) is anyone’s guess!

I was mulling this earlier as well and am of the same opinion. If this goes to 6p I’ll pick up more for sure, just a stupid price tbh...

Aaaahhhh FFS!!

At least 15p but up to 17p...!!!

I disagree that we have “no news”. We were informed that the OM award will be finalised by mid this year (only award to be finalised, all court arguments complete and RKH won).

What we don’t know is how much will be awarded but it’s presumably not less than what RKH paid for OM 29m (can’t recall currency), or the 40-50m they spent in total (including buy price) and RKH have sued for 350m that takes into account list earnings (noting Cairn just won a similar battle with India and was awarded the full amount).
Noting there will be lawyer fees will cost a fair bit but...and I’ve written this before tbh, what would these figures roughly mean?
Well say all GBP for easy maths and 458,000,000 shares.
29m GBP = 6.3p per share
50m GBP = 11.0p per share
350m GBP = 76p per share

Take your pick, but give the price before this announcement was around 6p snd it’s now around 10p suggests to me that there is a rational investment reason for folks to be buying shares up to 15p indeed (6p plus 11p).