Member Info for nberzins

If I wanted a few more weeks to get the BFS out of the door if it was tomiss the January deadline how about a few wheezes like delisting from Aus and have a meeting to change the company name. Just saying.

I would be disappointed if the BFS was not available by mid February however. I am going nowhere but would like the plan laid out soon as.

Intriguing RNS today concerning a change in the company name. Does dropping the 'rare earth' element of the name signify a change in direction or maybe an ambition to position the company as more than a miner.
Are they looking to go further up the food chain and become a vertically integrated organisation in the magnet market? In any event I will be interested to see how 2021 unfolds here.

I suspect that was some finger trouble in entering the trade as 8p may have been more likely. But I would hope to see 9 or 10p more generally when the elections are out of the way, or any resulting potential disruption settles.

I can work it out, and I do get it. However I would expect a competent management to explain the value proposition and the expected return on investment even if this stretches 5 or more years hence. If they can communicate this effectively then it would transform the company; if not.....

I am disappointed with the performance here. SD came on stream a year ago now which was meant to be cash generative. Indeed the mantra is how this is a cash cow that should be swimming is dollars.
The realty is quite different. Their accounts show the following cash position in million dollars :
2017 $25.844
2018 $17.345
2019 $11.454
2020 Circa $9.600

No surprise there is little appetite to invest here and drive up the price based on the supposed value. If there is value here then they are not able to monetize. As a long suffering holder I am not convinced that this is about to change any time soon.

Have to agree China. I pretty well pressed the return key as her indoors said we had a deal on Brexit. Bearing in mind that the EU has nothing in play at the moment, to my knowledge, and we are a 'local' tariff free and sustainable supplier then why the hell not.

The other thing I omitted from my observation of the progress over the last 5 months is that I based some of my calculations in August on Lynas. Their share price has risen by more than 50% since then which would potentially lift other credible rare earth plays by a similar amount.

Lastly I don't want to be seen to be ramping this share - I am simply expressing my thought process and observations. Bear in mind this company has not earned a penny yet on rare earth mining so there is always the potential for things to go awry.

I aim to invest in the medium term so take the peaks and troughs as a feature of shareholding. I was fortunate enough to hear about Pensana in early August and made a modest investment by some people’s reckoning but still 10% of my portfolio, so significant for me.

At that time, I felt with a good tail wind £2 a share would be possible when the mine was in full production, which was based on the only comparator at the time, Lynas. I was factoring in a 25 – 50% dilution even though PA says that he is passionate about protecting shareholder value. Even so a valuation at half Lynas at the time including some dilution would yield my £2 target or 8-fold return.

Now a mere 5 months on how things have changed! The retirement of fossil fueled cars has been brought forward 10 years, at least in the UK. Rare earth mineral prices are starting to rise quickly and shortages are being predicted which will push up prices further. The Longonjo resource has been upgraded, Coola is looking promising and we are a few months away from the probable start of production.

With this change in the landscape and increased share price then I see any dilution dropping to 10-15%, especially with a solid BFS being delivered to the new timetable. This dynamic alone could add 50p to the share price by reducing the dilution effects.

Then the Saltend project is introduced into the mix which extends the reach of the supply chain and introduces a high margin additional business. Bearing in mind the green agenda, the demand for sustainable supplies and the likely grants, soft loans and other incentives I would not be surprised if Pensana has to put their hand in their pockets for this investment.

In short a surprisingly good Christmas gift here so far. I am sure there will be some bumps in the road, there always are but I am keeping the faith. Assuming the BFS flies and operations start without too much delay I would not be surprised if PA let’s the operational team get on with their job and seek out additional ways to extend or deepen the rare earths story. My £2 target could, in these circumstances, look pretty measly.

Happy Christmas to all invested here.

Thanks China, I felt there had to be a n explanation out there.

I am intrigued and feeling a bit perplexed by the directors shareholdings shown here. Most have millions, which is clearly encouraging. However, the one that I find odd, and maybe someone can explain is why Mark Hohnen holds a grand total of 4 shares! Blimey even I own considerably more than that.

Agreed, it was notable that China was not mentioned once directly, only by implication that the EU are only investing in sustainable rare earths.
I also presume the issue of additional shares will provide for cash flow beyond January. Otherwise generally positive; and wow an AGM wrapped up in 20 minutes flat.

Not only increased activity but some positive price movement. Something appears to be afoot.

Sounds like we are in agreement then.

Can you explain what you believe the NAV of this company actually is. From their own reports each of the business is shown with a pretty modest valuation albeit with plenty of potential. Until some of the investment is crystallized or sales and profits start coming on stream then we are only guessing.

I am invested here as I am in IT so think there is medium term value here but today whether the price is double or half currently I will accept that as fair value until I see something other than puff.

SSE is preparing to give the green light to build the world's biggest offshore wind farm as part of plans to treble its renewable electricity output by 2030.

Emily Gosden, our energy editor, reports that the energy giant expects to reach financial close "in coming days" on the first two stages of the Dogger Bank wind farm, 60 miles off the northeast coast of England. It will have 3.6 gigawatt capacity, or enough to power 4.5 million homes when completed by 2026.

The energy company's shares rose today as investors bet that it will benefit from Boris Johnson's plans for a green industrial revolution. The prime ministers wants to produce enough offshore wind to power every home, quadrupling how much we produce to 40 gigawatt by 2030.

For obvious reasons I keep an eye on Lynas being the only public comparator to PRE. Interestingly Lynas' share price has increased 40% in the last couple of months giving it a market cap of about £1.5bn.

Something to aim for in the medium term - even at half that value it is clear there is plenty of potential value here.

I agree that the upstream processing is where good profits will be made especially as we own the source as well.

What has not ben spelt out is how this additional activity is to be funded especially as they plan to do this in parallel to the mine development. Sure there are likely to be grants but this is still going to require hundreds of millions. I have no doubt the Paul can work his magic with funding or some JV alternatives.

Has this extra dimension caused delays to the BFS. In short I feel that there are quite a few unanswered questions. Nevertheless I am sitting tight on my holding for the long term.

While I am happy to see a surge in the share price today I don't see what is driving it. The volumes don't seem to be anywhere near enough for this sort rise. Is this some sort of Biden bounce with his stated Green agenda?
Anybody got a clue what is driving this?

I’ve been it IT all my working life so really appreciate where these guys are invested. From an investment standpoint this company is almost impossible to value. Their portfolio could easily be worth £100m or 2x or 3x as much, but until some of the investment is crystallised we can’t put a number on it. What I do suspect is that this company is worth way north of today’s elevated share price.

Maybe just a bit of profit taking, although with the BFS around the corner and quite a lot of the content has already been signposted it seems poorly timed. Still it has proved an opportunity to buy a few more on the dips as anything under £1 is likely to be seen as a steal fairly soon, let alone the first tranche I grabbed at sub 25p which was daylight robbery.

While we all see the uptick in electric cars it looks as if the commercial sector will drive this ( excuse the pun). All the major delivery firms are investing in electric , even my local DPD van is electric. To reinforce this see the Times article today https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/blackrock-boost-confirms-electric-van-maker-s-arrival-2sxtcq5j0?shareToken=5e0d4df8a6ce62c32eae2358eb33e496