Member Info for NAV_Mike

Im playing catch up here from yesterday, so forgive me if ive misread anything.....

It seems that after waiting sixteen weeks for the tox trials to conclude, the actual tone of this board is actually souring rather than growing more expectant? All as a result of the interview where it looks like more jam tomorrow, rather than coming to a imminent head?

Ive only had one watch of the interview, and skim-read this board, so apologies if im way off....

For what its worth, yesterday 02.10 was the highest day in terms of both volume repurchased and vwap condideration since the buyback started

Well the good thing is, we are a third of the way through the buyback, so only 77 days or so left of this dirge like share price performance.

(Yes im peed off....every day is the same)

I hope you are right, however Im seeing more and more news stories about dire predictions for Q1 next year and Brent in the $50s. Hopefully, its just the usual crowd talking the price down so they can load up, but this scenario would certainly make the Orange One happy!

Share price clinging on valiantly to important support at 207/208

I thought it was going to breach this afternoon as Brent almost went sub-$65 however it managed to hold on. All eyes on the next OPEC+ meeting at the weekend, where the talk is of larger production increases and Q1 2026 supply gluts. Ho hum

Yes thats what I suddenly realised....

It seems wrong to me that a major holder can be selling a large number shares without having to declare it

Erm.....how will that apply when they are selling but maintaining their overall %? Now im confused

Anyone know what the reporting rules are for when BASF have to report a reduction in holdings in terms of %?

Or will it all be classed as one ongoing transaction, only to be reported when completed?

......particularly when you see the wider market steaming to record highs, one cant help but sigh and think if only

(Yes I know its comparing apples and oranges, but still)

NSS

In the absence of an RNS this morning, they were never going to give anything but a very broad update. Certainly nothing that wasnt already released.

Without getting into the pros/cons of buybacks, I think chucking BASF into this mix is really going to put a handbrake on. The market will know that circa 165k shares will hit the market from them daily, add in weak Brent and it rather explains the very drab recent performance. As you intimated....not a straight forward market (and we are only a third of the way through)

Have to disagree on the share consolidation.....Whilst yes its quite possible, in my experience however, consolidations have a rather negative impact on share prices.

Depending on the price when it took place, it would also have to be pretty substantial to get the share price away from real penny share status..... 25:1 ?

So thats broadly speaking around 165k per day at current rates. Not earth shattering, but wont put a positive slant of daily trading and may explain the tight daily ranges and drift lower

Another 90k this morning, which was probably enough to drop the bid

Would be strange if non-w*****t holders were selling decent amounts this close to potential news

Bots

Are they saying BASF are feeding the shares to be bought back, or just matching what is bought back each day?

Thing is, anything other than 'trading as previously reported to the markets' would have seen an RNS this morning. Still....its a chance to have tea and biccies with the IR team :)

Possibly today, if not defo tomorrow, will mark the 1/3 completion point of the current buyback

I do wonder if the last remnants of the w****** conversions are flushing through? Probably not but there was a 110k at close yesterday and 50k just now......Im always suspicious of the larger round number trades.

Oh yeahhh.....and its back to NT to sell :(

Sekforde

Im sorry, but your obsession with the theoretical benefits of buybacks on yield is blinding you to a fundemntal accounting fact.

Without after tax profits, the company's balance sheet DOES NOT GROW, and indeed subsequently

paying dividends after that will make it contract. We have had above average yield now for ages, and what exactly has it done for the share price?

According to you accounting profit does not matter, nor do underlying commodity prices.....all will be made right by improved theoretical yield and FCF. Before the buyback started I predicted the share price would go into a sideways holding pattern and I take no pleasure whasoever in seeing that play out

I sincerely hope that tomorrow has management pulling an ace out of the hat. I really do. However I firmly agree with the three points that bots raised, and as long as they are present, will act as a major drag on share price performance

Well thats an admirable spin to another downbeat start to the week :)

Dont get me wrong, I am positive on HBR but cannot see anything to break this current lethargy, which to be honest, I think suits the buyback operators fine

Week 7 26.09.25

Total shares repurchased to date 9970893

Total vwap spend to date £22.28m

Average vwap price paid £2.2342

Average daily vwap spend £636.5m

A neutral type week where at least it didnt get any worse. Gap between share price / average vwap narrowed to 7.4p and average spend increased by £4.4k. Surprisingly, Friday was a very low volume day - the second lowest since commencement. Hard to know why as volume before the closing auction was circa 2m shares

Based on $100m = £74m, buyback is projected to last 117 days / 82 days remaining