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A couple of big issues in the UK which include lockdowns and defaults after furlough schemes end, I think this is why we are seeing a lack of progress in SP.
Optimistically I’m hoping Covid cases peak soon in the UK and a special divi is paid at around 8p (based on profit forecast and CET ratio’s).
My worst case scenario is the UK goes into lockdown and we see a housing market crash, but I feel the first wouldn’t take effect till Q4 and the latter some time next year.
With August and September offering better weather and further vaccinations across the public, SP nearing 250 is possible. At this stage I think it could be time to assess.
Good luck!
Hello,
Trying to work out what this means for the shareholders? Anyone got input?
Notice of Redemption
NatWest Group plc (formerly known as The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc) (the "Issuer")
The Issuer has given notice to holders of the $2,650,000,000 8.625% Perpetual Subordinated Contingent Convertible Additional Tier 1 Capital Notes (ISIN: US780097BB64 (the "Notes")) of the upcoming redemption of the Notes on 15 August 2021. The amount of the Notes currently outstanding is $2,650,000,000.
Upon redemption of the Notes there will be a gain to CET1 of approximately 8bps based on Q1 RWAs. This arises due to changes in FX rates since the date of issuance of the Notes.
The Notes are being redeemed pursuant to Section 3.08 of the Third Supplemental Indenture. All of the outstanding Notes will be redeemed by the Issuer on 15 August 2021 (the "Redemption Date") at 100% of principal amount, together with accrued and unpaid interest to (but excluding) the Redemption Date, and subsequently cancelled. The Issuer has notified the holders pursuant to the terms of the Notes.
@JABH thanks again for this, helpful in every sense, especially the govt buyback part.
I'm trying to get out of an airline stock I hold, to go all in on NWG due to the following reasons (open to criticism and other opinions).
The UK is going to have a bumper 3-6 months, which in that time will crossover 2-3 earnings updates (of which I expect all to be better than analyst forecasts).
UK interest rates could rise in 2022, or at least the notion of 2022 rate hikes, all good for a mortgage heavy NWG.
Further buy backs of shares to a point the private investor becomes the majority shareholder.
DYOR (Pray)
Thanks @JABH, very good analysis.
If we look at time rather than price points, what do you think about the UK's forecast for 2022? You would expect the next couple of quarterly results to offer leaps in the SP (I'm going to ignore that last one given results did not match the SP change). But then we start to hit serious speed bumps in the form of govt support for businesses being removed and then the furlough scheme ending in Q4. I'm thinking we could have a catalyst of failing businesses and unsecured personal loans defaulting across the country which would be damaging to NWG. The bigger concern is that it leaks into the property market which would spiral the SP until the bottom is found out, something that could take 12+ months.
My target price was/is 250 before looking to reduce, but still in two minds whether to change this based on your comments. If I switch to time over price, what would be safest date to pull the ship from the water?
I’m not sure the article can construed as valuable intel. He’s just stating that ‘it’s an option’ and the rest reads as very loose lips sink ships type chatter.
I’m being selfish in my response here because I’m a LTH and if BA moves out of the portfolio, surely this can only be negative for the SP? I also can’t imagine Qatar who own 25% and have significant influence at the board level would allow this to happen.
Happy to hear counter arguments.
Presuming the UK economy announces unbelievable growth figures (rising inflation and rising interest rates to follow), you’d think this share price will rise significantly around H1 results (end of July).
Question is, when to pull out? 250? 275? 300?
Anyone got thoughts on this and why?
I'm not a criminal law expert but one would presume that today's FCA evidence reveal will have a clear signal about what skeletons still exist in NWG cupboard.
I have not sold any shares because I am living in hope (dream land) that the outcome is a small fine and/or case dismissed. Even a big fine would be ok as long as it ends with this one case. My biggest concern is that today's proceeding uncover multiple claims of fraud / AML cases towards the group. If this is the case, today will be a good 5% down.
Anyone got thoughts? Inside knowledge to share?
I'm looking to get out in 2-4 trades between 230-250, feel like today is a critical moment for this to be achieved in 2021!
I see a number of posts thrown out which focus on the negatives, often recycled Daily Mail stories. Keen to see if anyone has any concrete reasons for where the share price will be at the H1 2021 results in July? Based on the figures from Q1 and the fact we would have had a full quarter of 'Business As Usual' in the UK, above 200 or below?
I am concerned about the govt support coming to an end but those figures will take time to show and probably more so in Q3 and Q4.
With that in mind, I think a price of 225, thoughts?
Please can we refrain from adding utter garbage to the board. Adding a story about a mate in the pub who said some mate of his knows someone who lives with an employee at NWG, who then said it was going bust adds no value whatsoever.
NWG 58% owned by the govt. Moved into making profit with huge cash reserves for rainy days.
I like real stories and expect some doom and gloom given the court case and upcoming defaults on unsecured and secured loans.
Let’s keep this to facts please.
Thanks
Searching for a reason, clearly someone or something lurks in the dark.
Court case end of May? My concern is that whilst it states 'one client', will it then end up turning into 10+ clients and a world of pain from regulatory fines?
The business is in better shape than pre-covid times with less exposure to higher risk areas. I think long term it will still hit 230-300 but the question is, how long will it take?