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To be clear, I am a shareholder and given the fact every single flight appears to be full for the next 9 months, I continue to think (hope) this share price will go up.
The question I keep asking myself is, where does it go before it rockets up or crashes back down? 150 / 180 / 200? Here is a snippet I read today (from 2018), pretty good read and something I thought worth sharing so we can take into account should interest rates go bonkers (IAG heavy borrowing).
"What will the best course of action be for the airlines in a rising interest environment? When they have cash, they either order more or buy out leases, but as rates rise they will have to be more careful about how they deploy their capital. In a rising rate environment, capital costs will rise and borrowing capacity for some will become a real problem."
This is probably the reason why we are stuck at 120's as the institutions are holding to see if interest rates will taper off and if they do, inflows increase for sure. If interest rates go too far up, Q1/Q2 next year could be a nightmare for IAG.
DYOR but thought this was a good alternative to share.
If you look at my previous posts you’ll see that I’m just sharing informative information so we can all make more money. If you want to be a smart ar&e, pop yourself on one of the many social media platforms.
Stick to the facts kid.
DYOR (and share)
Great article in the FT today, possibly the first one I’ve seen since 2019. Would imagine Monday we will see a big move towards 140+
https://ig.ft.com/covid-air-traffic/
I got in NWG at 120 and sold 210, I think IAG is a no brainer to hit 200 by year end and only reason to sell would be a covid variant popping up, which will happen but we hope not at the danger levels seen last year.
DYOR
Great points Takayama.
Question I think we all want to know, is the bottom coming or a long way off? I'd rather get out and back in at a much lower rate as I do not have the powder to take advantage of a possible RI. 45 mins to go, I'm praying for green.
It feels like we could be heading for a winter of banned flights, mainly from places like Italy who are rightly or wrongly, pointing fingers at how the UK has managed the crisis. At the end of the day, the big ticket is the US route and if Biden U-turns, it will be a bad day for IAG.
I got in at 170 and so it's been a bad week, the question is do I hold or get out to get back in at a lower number. I hope for a bounce today, but feel like we could easily see this head towards a sub 100 number and inevitable RI (if the US bans the UK).
What do you think?
DYOR
You make a valid point (s) Broomfielder, very helpful. I was looking at Easyjet as well but the RI and state of international travel feels like it could be a roulette at best.
For full disclosure, I reduced my holding in NWG yesterday (by half), still got a good load stocked up but I'm just super cautious about the winter period hitting the UK, Europe and US. I can't quite see how we can get through the winter without some sort of restrictions on travel, people movement and supply chain blockage.
The plan is to slowly reduce from now to the dizzy heights of 220-240. In this time all of the above is expected plus tax reform and a realization that the UK govt have to pay back the free money we gave out.
Good luck anyways and keep the info coming through.
No offence at you Broomfielder, but not sure how the promotion of the CEO at Easyjet helps anyone on this board? I would say Alison has done an ok job getting the business into profit and reducing exposure to markets like Ireland.
I do however agree with the choppy waters statement, but a lot of this is what I/you are reading in the press / FT / Bloomberg. September is always a tricky month to navigate, sentiment is negative and on top of this, we had supply chain issues contribution to a 0.1% increase in the growth for July (UK).
I'll not mention the Quadruple witching day on Thursday (gulp).
Good luck!
@JABH, did you get any update on the court case?
So my thoughts with NWG is that if you look at revenue, profit, UK economy bounce back, share buy back, streamlined systems, digital transformation and the disposal of a cash sapping Irish front - all would suggest if you hold it’ll eventually hit 300+.
The things I like to think about and welcome thoughts and feedback on the below?
When does the furlough stoppage for businesses really kick in? For example, defaults on loans?
When does the personal furlough salary guarantee stoppage really kick in?
Both of these you can control and my view is that 2022 will be the year where warning signs kick in. I can’t say the exact date but I think if we find this stock moving past 250 at pace, it’s a ticking time bomb. Not a bad thing though, if you get out and then back in.
Just need someone like ‘god’ to tell me this date.
DYOR
@Alibeme - I see you have 51 posts and all of them are IAG and all are aimed at shorting mentality. Can I ask if you actually have a position or just on here to derail others?
I look at the boards to see if anyone has news I may have missed and/or to find the positivity in an SP rise. You've made it clear what you think, no need to keep saying the same thing on different posts!
This article worries me, it feels like the start of a downward spiral. Anyone know how much they had invested in IAG?
Do you think this was factored into fridays hit or more to come tomorrow?
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/hedge-fund-odey-sells-stake-ryanair-iag-mail-sunday-2021-08-08/
@broom, what you say makes sense.
I think that this share has two plays. Short term take the bounce that a ‘first to reopen’ economy will give. I’m expecting a steady rise for the rest of the year and I’ve set a price to get out. The hardest thing is pulling the trigger because greed often wins over reason.
The second play is getting back in at the right ‘dip’ moment to ensure a longer term approach.
For me, I’m going to stick with around 250.
DYOR AND GL
I also agree. The bank has been in a state owned / restructuring mode for a decade.
The other thing to note is that I can’t think of a single company where they make billions of pounds in profit each year without seeing a credible if not steady rise in the SP.
My target is 25p (250) but that’s only because I’m frightened of what happens when the furlough system ends. If it wasn’t for that, I’d be holding for 5 - 10 years as this could very easily hit 500 in that time period (based on a continuation of good results).
Yeah, just reading the report now. It is as expected (hoped), another step forward to a regular divi and SP increase (small and steady).
I would hope to see the opening SP and closing SP move towards the double digits again.
I said this last quarter and it went down 5%.
DYOR