International Competitors26 Aug 2014 08:04
Roche: bets on discovery:
Last week, Roche was reported to be chasing efficiency, by buying the part of Chugai that it did not already own. Now the Swiss-based pharmaceuticals company has gone the other way.
It has agreed to buy U.S. biotech company InterMune for more than $8 billion to get its hands on Esbriet, the only drug that slows the progression of a deadly lung disease, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Roche has the money. The $8.3 billion price tag is less than a year’s free cash flow.
But just because you can do something does not mean you should. Roche will be paying $74 a share in cash, a 40% premium to the undisturbed price (before February’s trial results for Esbriet, the shares changed hands at $14). Can Esbriet do as well? InterMune estimates there are 55,000-78,000 IPF patients in North America.
In Europe alone (where Esbriet has been on the market since 2011), there are 80,000-110,000 sufferers. A year’s supply of Esbriet has a list price of more than $40,000. The market in those two regions alone could be worth $5 billion or more every year. But it will take until 2022 to build to that level, at which point Esbriet’s patent protection begins to lapse. Roche has bought a product with no competitors, set to grow fast. It has paid for all that potential in advance.