Daily Telegraph3 Sep 2014 08:21
BAE Systems lifted by global tension:
The case for investors holding BAE Systems as a good long-term defensive investment with income potential was underpinned by a supportive analyst note that sent the shares up almost 3%. Bank of America Merrill Lynch issued a double upgrade on BAE, lifting its recommendation from underperform to buy. At 456p, BAE shares are trading near the top of their long-term price range. During the past two decades the stock has twice climbed to just above 500p – in 1999 and once again in 2007 – and fell as low as 100p during 2003. Looking back over the past 20 years, the most obvious level of support for the shares has been around the 300p level, or down about 33%. During these moments of market weakness the company has remained a solid dividend payer. The shares currently offer a 4.6% prospective yield, while the 20.4p annual dividend is covered 1.8 times by forecast earnings per share of 37.2p. The dividend growth is meagre, with the market expecting a 2% rise this year and next. That said, 4.6% income is much better than anything on offer in certain other sectors, such as banking. However, BAE’s balance sheet doesn’t look that secure as debt levels are rising sharply – and paying dividends out of debt is unsustainable in the long term. BAE’s shares are currently trading on 12 times forecast earnings, falling to 11.5 times next year. The company looks like a good long-term bet, as its problems look like they are priced in. The shares trade at a discount of about 10% to U.S. peers and about 14% to U.K. rivals. But, while BAE Systems remains a solid hold, the shares are no better than that, with the current trading price near the top of the long-term range. BAE Systems at 456p+10.9p Questor Says “Hold”.