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There has been allegedly some speculation of ChrisOil talking a stock up when actually selling down his holding. You can look at www.*************.com for some past history of comments in this regard.
Frankly I have no idea whether that happened or not, but Chris Oil's twitter feed did seem indicate he had interests in Rockhopper. Whether NigOil or Chris Oil are in anyway related I don't know.
As with anyone on this BB you don't know their identities, their motivations or the veracity of what they say.
Rockhopper's history has sucked a lot of money out of investors, through bad luck, unfortunate market conditions etc, and it would be great if it had a run of luck now. It is well overdue. So in short I hope NigOil and every interested shareholder makes money in the best way possible, which is by positive news on development of the field, and good news on litigation.
It could be, and in my view would be usual, that if someone received a salary/fee as a Director overseeing that Company's investment, that fee would be billed by the investing company, and not the individual.
In that case the fee/salary if applicable should be off-set against the investing Company costs, in effect reducing the investing Company's total remuneration Director costs.
If this does not happen, I would think the individual is being greedy, and the investing Company foolish in the extreme.
What I liked about Captain Guns was like Mogger, he generally kept comment to the minimum.
I don't know if NigOil is really Chris Oil with another hat on?
It sounds great soapbox politics to tax a declining asset (North Sea oil effectively), and disincentive those that take the risk of eking out the last vestiges. Net result more imports, because there is no energy gap being filled by renewables fast enough.
More reliance on Norway/Putin etc etc. Less oil tax revenue. Oil companies will move to friendlier jurisdictions. Job losses in Scotland, and environs.
I realise the reference to Tullow was to illustrate the potential growth of the share price. Frankly talking about potential is great, but I think the pitch of get in now while its cheap how sucked millions out of private investor pockets in the junior oil market.
However, on the subject of Tullow and the FI, it may be of passing interest to know that Tullow once had a share of licences in the FOGL licensed area, but backed out of it early doors.
Shows you how long I have been around waiting for the FI to happen!
https://www.fig.gov.fk/minerals/home/news-archive
According to Sunday Telegraph Trainline are developing an app that will assist tarin user to claim back on delays. This will tread in an area that Tracsis has invested in through an acquisition.
Interesting to read next week RNS on prior year trading, and anything new it has to say.
Getting more worried that whilst Tracsis doesn't lack foresight on what the market might need, it lacks the size necessary to develop and market it quickly, particularly in the area of data management, and traffic app matters, where the players with big tech platforms have huge potential leverage.
Maybe its time for a slightly bolder vision if it is to continue in this side of the business.
Yes interesting, noticing in particular the reference to those those 'financing' oil exploration activities in the FI.
I suppose this could be a way of warning third parties that costs may be incurred from legal challenges over and above the normal finance costs. It may scare off some, I guess, even if its an empty gesture
I am slightly amazed that BP etc are interested in the Argentinian licensing round. After all the Argentinan Govt shafted Repsol by nationalising their interests, and then settling compensation in the lower range. But I guess Repsol must have made money over the years, and I guess it is a calculated gamble by oil companies that they will ultimately have recourse. I am sure they are looking at bolstering Govt legal assurances, for what they are worth.
Nigoil is not Chrisoil under another name.
I do note Chrisoil on twitter often references his holdings in Rockhopper.
Obviously I want the best outcome for Rockhopper and its shareholders, but it's record despite meaningful discoveries of oil, and its future has been spoilt by bad luck, bad timing, and latterly by Directors who thought the millions would last for ever, and took risks, and salaries arguably above their worth, and certainly their experience to exploit.
It obvious we are close to the last chance saloon. Fingers crossed for the best outcome rather than the worst
Interesting piece in the Twitter section of FT Alphaville on the Mexican President. As signalled on this bb he is looking to driving more oil through State controlled vehicles, but its hit a duff note with potential investors who say the plans are ill thought out, and seemed to be modelled on a State future previously chartered by the likes of Venezuela and Brazil.
So expect corruption to skyrocket and efficiency to diminish
He is swerving away to a 'Socialist' model from one where outside explorers etc paid a pretty penny on barrel production to the Govt. Basically a rinse and repeat of Latin socialism disasters waiting to happen.
Yes, the sale of the Egyptian assets was spun. I think there was a degree of panic looking at future possible capital commitments in that projects, and also seeing their own run rate of spend within RKH. So in a way they were forced sellers.
The saga reminds me (just to repeat) of the situation of Bowleven who got a pile of money from selling some of their oil exploration fields, wasted huge amounts of money on a large extended board, and general incompetence on some other drilling commitments, and yet were still looking to buy other exploration assets.
RKH at least bought some producing assets, but forgot the first law of oil assets... they have CAPEX needs that come with them. You would need a pretty significant multiple of cash to cover liabilities in the oil business, which is why most AIM explorers have practically gone bust, despite in some cases have many millions in their accounts.
No way were the board members ever going to give up their salaries. As in Bowleven they would have to be forced off. Their interests are technically owed to shareholders, but the reality is that they look after their own interests first.
We are now operating on a knife edge of cash reserves, so anyone buying more shares without some solid news is very risky, unless you can trade them out for a profit.
Apparently Uber are considering developing their nascent train business.
Scooting around Google etc this seems to be mainly linked to ticketing incentives. I see Virgin already has a tie up with Uber no doubt for train/drive offers.
Could be a bit of a worry for Trainline, but at this stage don't see much of a threat to the likes of Tracsis whose activities are more niche.
However, perhaps it is also a warning to the slow and steady approach that big platforms have scale of data or reach where they can swoop, as with the likes of Amazon/Google etc. and suddenly have a marketing lead.
Hi GE17
Interested in the Costain link to use of Vivacity analytics. Thanks for that.
Nutshell looks like an interesting app. I am not sure what advantages or limitations this has in comparison tor other app development tools etc. Getting momentum on sales is difficult for small entities. Usually, to leverage you have to either create a re-seller channel, and/or white label it for other product supplier that have access to a user base, and can offer it as an add on.
Using it in primarily transport market may be a start to develop a user base and hone its features, but you have to be careful unless this is a market of deep growth potential, that it may be labelled as a niche product.
Hi GE17You usually keep your eye on Tracsis's activities. Any feel for what's happening on Nutshell/Vivacity?
GE17. You follow the operational detail of Tracsis more than most. Do you any take on the Nutshell/Vivacity labs situation?
Art Berman may ultimately be right on Peak Oil and Shale, but he has seriously under estimated the effect of Shale on supplies.
I've been reading stuff on and off now for a few years, and there is a danger that he reverts to being like the chap with the sign: 'The end of the world is nigh'. Fact is there is too many moving parts to actually predict what the outcome will be, and for investors like us, his take has lured a lot more investors into the moonshot oil price expectation, which was the end game for his Peak Oil analysis and forthcoming Shale disaster.
Its entertaining but there are many commentators out there trying to be prophets of all different scenarios, and who knows who will be proved correct.
Looked at what Directorships John McArthur still holds, and these appear to be at Vivacity Labs and Nutshell Software. These are Tracsis investment vehicles.
I notice that Vivacity Labs have recent allotted some shares to a new investor. This was probably required because Vivacity lost £600K last year, so I would imagine that Tracsis has diluted its investment somewhat?
Nutshell Software revenues seem to be making a steady loss of around £230K.
These are fairly embryonic businesses, and may or may not survive in the long term. Maybe JM has stayed on to use his influence/contacts to help refinance these businesses, and guide them through their growth phase. He may of course prefer this embryonic growth phase as this could be a re-run of how Tracsis started.
I was always slightly surprised that Tracsis made these investments, as investing is a different discipline from acquiring and running.
I am not sure these were particularly wise investments for Tracsis, given its general cautious acquisition policy. They look interesting, and may be their growth needs a rather different structure than being partially owned by a listed company.
I wonder if Tracsis will or has quietly written down some of their investment. We will see in their full accounts later this year. If they bury it in the notes or in the detail of the EBITDA adjustments that will go against their ethos of openness.
Looks like John McArthur has sold around .5% of his shares. Guess he must have made around £800k on that share sale?
To a certain degree I would have expected some share sale having stepped down from being CEO, so not entirely surprised.
He still has 2.99% but this makes it no longer notifiable by the company if he sell shares, or to list on their website, as he is now below the 3% share threshold for notifiable holdings.
He will still be on the insiders list if he is a consultant for their M&A side of things, so will probably be a little bit constrained as to when he can sell. But he has been a consistent banker of profits in the last few years.
Never easy for Directors etc to time these matters to please the markets.
He may have said 'game changer' but it can still be rewarding at 40% of their original interest. I think the inner accountant never really believed he was going to hang onto all of it, and he will probably look at selling the rest depending on the outlook, which I guess he can monitor for a while, if he gets a farm in partner, who will put more value into the move to producing oil.
Tony Durrant has made some bold moves, putting Zama on the sale block, and farming down 60% of their interest in SeaLion.
I expect typical of a sale process there will be plenty of positivity of the potential of SeaLion now.
I sense that where TD wishes to go is to buy more producing assets in the North Sea, as of late this has been quite rewarding, and seemed to put a twinkle in his eye in the last recorded interview he made. A good accountants move, matching cash flow to asset cover, reducing debt. They don't want to be an explorer.
Where that leaves SeaLion, in terms of future development I have no idea, but they must have some confidence that there is interest in it. No doubt there will be liaison with FIG on any future purchaser.
GLA