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under Putin. He has at least two wars he is fighting and needs to Finance. he doesn't care if he sacrifices his own people or other people, as long as he maintains his tough man image on the world stage.
Putin is re-staging the cold war as if he was in the Soviet Union, still battling Us hegemony wherever it crops up. So he has a military machine has to feed, and that needs oil dollars.
So he will do whatever it takes to manipulate fossil fuel prices to fund his activities whilst carefully avoiding the embargos on production.
and when the virus comes back in a mutated form that causes a cytokine storm that mainly affects young people (like the Spanish Flu) we will have half decent music, less platforming of sensible people, less moaning about buying houses, when they spend most of their money on coffee, and on unproductive lengthy gap years, buying cheap clothes produced by sweat shops etc etc.
All nonsense of course, which I assume the previous post to be. We need a balanced society where wisdom and age are respected (sometimes they go together!) :-) :-)
Yanbu-Arabia
Its been said quite a few times on this board. Buy backs or dividends are unlikely to be allowed by the Falkland Islands Govt, who are due a heap of deferred tax (form the original Premier farm out value), and specifically restricted the right of RKH to issue same.
So, this is very unlikely to happen
Interesting article Marunam2.
Increasingly one feels that Govt's driven by headlines or opportunism make things up as they go along, and this creates uncertainty and undermines trust. The article makes some sensible points about the approach that the Italians could make in arbitration terms, but if grandstanding is the order of the day, then Italy's energy needs will become critical at some point.
Lots of businesses are looking at potential effects of potential infection. Hard to see any immediate issues affecting Tracsis, though if some big events are still being cancelled later on in the year, it may/will have an effect on their event management income, I guess.
I also traffic volumes on public transport will decline if home working/ self-isolation becomes prevalent, and this may affect revenues in their ticket rebate service etc.
Businesses will have to prepare for some hopefully short term disruption. Fortunately Tracsis aren't exposed to any debt issues, which of course brings it own pressures when revenues dip, even short term.
Whats the current betting on the level of the award for RKH, if they win? I am asking for estimates before the lawyers take their generous slice.
My guess is Euros 70m.
Having flirted for a while with being just under the magic £8 barrier, with the RNS today, it passed through easily.
Looks like someone is trying to acquire stock, but it is relatively illiquid, so mainly small amounts. If someone acquired £1m worth I suspect either one of the institutions has top-sliced, or the previous CEO who has sold some on several previous occasions.
The RNS was generally positive
Probably a euphemism for $'s (dollars)
Still its a all bit like the 'barman at Sharkey's' style of guff we used to get from the idiotic person whose username I have forgotten .
Any interesting Company in a 'hybrid' use of gas is ITM Power, an AIM company, which is pioneering certain types of Hydrogen supply. For example mixing the natural gas systems commonly used in the UK for gas central heating etc with a mixture of Hydrogen gas, thus cutting CO2 emissions from Gas use.
As Hydrogen is generated from splitting water molecules into Hydrogen with electricity, it does require power to create, but increasingly this is coming from renewable resources. So hopefully a virtuous circle at some point.
Could extend the life of our gas supply system, and help make it environmentally friendlier with no signficant infrastructure changes.
I do not hold ITM Power shares
If I was expecting a bonus, and knowing there was some sensitivity about that, I might try and salve some positive PR by making a purchase of shares to show I wasn't just troughing it.
Guarantee the Chairman will feel under some pressure to award something post confirmation of the Farm In. Problem is we only know that we are grateful for some farm in deal, not whether it is a good deal.
General value accretion may appear from the sale of the Egyptian assets if RKH shareholding in the acquiring vehicle improves beyond the completion pricing, or if the legal settlement is positive relative to expenditure made on those Med assets.
Unfortunately, that requires a bit of steel in the Chairman to assess genuine upside, rather than just feeding sweeties for a quite life.
The amounts involved are not so small as to be pathetic but not large enough to show burgeoning confidence.
The market is quite cynical nowadays about nominal purchases by Directors, quite rightly.
I would say if it was intended as signal to the market, it doesn't cut the mustard, and I suspect that maybe some of it was made in expectation of yet another bonus in the pipeline for the farm-in, so I anticipate no real net expenditure by the execs.
Sorry to be on balance negative, but its hard to be anything anything than cynical without further positive news. Execs generally feel too cushioned by 'free' options to be motivated to buy themselves.
I would like to see a Chairman take a strong position on bonuses, and state awards won't be made unless some material balance sheet improvement takes place for all shareholders, not as a punishment, but as respect for shareholders declining fortunes. Upside for Directors can be given for a genuine improvement.
The FIG has prior claim to its tax before divis can be paid to shareholders under a current agreement. As discussed on the board, there is some uncertainty of what the status of that tax payment is following the farm-in. Technically they have sold an asset I guess. If they have made a gain, more tax is due. If a loss (possible?) then the original gain on the PMO farm-out will be reduced, or can be offset.
I think FIG said the tax could be repaid out of first oil revenues, but no doubt someone will correct me if I am wrong.
In short don't hold your breath for divis.
I don't think Tony Durrant would have taken any prisoners on the terms of the deal. He wants to reduce his capital obligations on development (he selling Zama after all!) as far as possible, and have cash/oil producing assets, as simple as that. That appeals to the inner accountant in him, and means he has leverage against his bond holders.
RKH were effectively a drowning man who have been lashed to a partner that was liable to take them back to square one by giving its acreage up, or dragging out matters so that capital raising for development seemed ever distant, whilst they sort out their own balance sheet. Neither was a great option for RKH, and so they have been squeezed by lack of good cards to play.
The Med based investment strategy has been pretty awful in its outcomes so far. Whether there is some upside from the adjudication to come, and the investment flowing from the Egyptian assets deal we don't know. Fact is, development cannot easily be pursued by small companies, but the irony is that large O&G companies are not putting the spadework in for new discoveries, so if shale hits the buffers, we could end cap in hand to the middle east and Russia for energy in the mid term whilst trying to escalate renewables. Its a bit hard to call to say the least.
As well as the Argentinian element in the background, and the fact the FI is also sort of nature reserve for the South Atlantic region may be future stumbling blocks.
So no surprise that with such a weak hand the deal is what it is. Where else were RKH going to go, if this deal wasn't on offer?
Positive news. Problem is, as Navitas's accounts are in Hebrew having some difficulty in understanding their financial standing.Hope they are on a firm footing.All is conditional at this stage, until the paperwork is sorted (1st Qtr 2020).Interesting tail of the RNS that PMO could hand back their acreage if this doesn't work out. That would mean writing off their investment to date, which would not help their balance sheet, but may not be the end of the world for PMO.Hope it all proceeds as planned. Still a wild ride until the blue ink is on the paperwork
Happy New Year GE17!
New Govt, new uncertainties I guess. Hopefully there will be some good opportunities for Tracsis in the coming year.
I doubt whether acquisitions will get any cheaper, and the danger is that buy low profitability businesses at decent prices means smaller returns, unless you are really lucky. I have seen to many acquisitive companies carry on buying low profit entities, acquiring debt, and then falling into low returns, and panicking when there is no market to raise finance to service debt.
Fortunately the quality of Tracsis management have not fallen into that trap, which usually follows management wanting to please the market with activity rather than accretive finds.
There is no particular downside of building up cash waiting for good opportunities.
Hope it is a good year for Tracsis.
Regards
Following the election there seems to have been a relief Santa rally. So we have headed up to the £7 mark. This seems to pitch the PE at 22x which is probably a good platform to steady at if we can. I think it has lost some of its early growth sparkle in the market PE, so a sign of maturity pending any unexpected earnings upside.
The short was a hedge against the significant debt they hold. TD will refinance at the end of the maturity, hopefully having paid some of it off via the Zama sale. This will demonstrate to the market PMO is a solid prospect, and no doubt more than a few will be keen to get on board at rates less than the current ones.
Of course it is always subject to unpredictable vagaries, but lets face it TD steered PMO through at the bottom of the Oil price crisis. Hats off!
PMO has a current PE of 11. One main market share Oil Company share which produces strong profits, and has paid a maiden dividend, based on the current share price of around 3.5% is trading on less than 2 x earnings. BP is on a about 11x earnings
Obviously there will be a boost to RKH if it gets FID underway, and gets litigation settled in its favour, no doubt, but its still a long way from production, and cash generation.
This is no doubt due to a mixture of things, - the variability of the oil price, the perceived future of fossil fuels etc. I am sure you can think of many more factors.
So, it will be the traders riding the share price ups and downs who are likely to be the winners, unless there is a major change in sentiment.
Meant Sturgeon ;-$
Sturgess's strategy (and lets face it her party haven't got many other competencies) is to keep the knife to the UK throat, but not to plunge it in. They already have a greater share of Govt spending per head than the UK, and have raised local income tax rates by 2p in the pound above UK rates. Unfortunately most Scots are little better off, or better served.
Whilst no expert I think forced to vote for someone., they hated Labour under Corbyn, took a typically Scottish view of an 'English' under Boris. They could vote for their own Remain party rather than vote for Joe Swinson.
I think Sturgeon knows this is no vote for Independence, but it won't stop her going on about it, or about pretending that it is the Tories stopping her attempting it- all good anti-English rhetoric for domestic consumption North of the Borders.
Most political parties are useless. Let's hope the Tories do more good things than bad in the next few years.