Member Info for Mumbles2021

Lets air some dirty laundry here, whoever allowed the interim report to go out with information that didnt represent the true picture of the companies true financial position deserves their collective backsides to be kicked. The fact that the SP hasn't recovered is a reflection of how the market justifiably views that situation. It caused untold and unnecessary losses to hundreds, if not thousands of shareholders. Whether it was due to incompetence or naivety (either of which is concerning) will probably never be known. Subsequent information indicates that the company was nowhere near close to going into administration, but the damage is done. The only way that it will recover is if funding is announced. It may or may not be. Its up to individual shareholders to decide one way or the other. I have listened and formed my own opinion. Some assumptions have been made. The main assumption being that, whatever the board is, it isn't made up of liars. regarding receding announcements made at the EGM, shareholders need to accept at face value or not. You pays your money, you takes your choice.

As1971, you made a statement regarding recovery from a 90% drop in share price. You were given a real world example of company having done just that. The fact that it was a company that occupies the same space as Pensana is actually irrelevant to the answer to question asked. I wonder if the shareholders were making the same comment regarding competent management when it actually happened, I suspect not.

Definite tree shake China, some definite buying going on at the moment

DP/SP we missed you

Longonjo funding to be confirmed in a couple of weeks. Saltend will have to wait for a few months. All formalities signed off. support from the two major shareholders (ASWF and M&G who between them own almost 40%) plus Absa bank in South Africa. Combination of debt and equity for full $ 305 million. Full structure not revealed at this stage.

DP/SP that is really trolling the depths even for you. Think there have been riots in London since this event.

Tend to agree Sundry, as soon as i saw the notice of the GM on the 8th, i stopped expecting any updates until that time. whether that is right or not is a different discussion.

are you bored theo, or started smoking again and have a *** packet to do a few rough calcss on the back of. there's a few months left yet....seems that there were a couple of million of receivables due, some vat, pus majority of the debt was long term. (some wasn't). and before you say anything, no im not particularly happy with the current situation. equally i dont believe there is any chance of them going into receivership either

SP/DP, ABSA are the book leader for a consortium consisting of UK Export Finance, US International Development Finance Corporation, and World bank International Finance Corporation. in addition is the Export Credit Insurance Corporation of South Africa. the role of the ECIC to provide credit risk insurance to South African construction equipment suppliers and fabricators for the Longonjo project. Whilst the American are significantly upset at the South Africans, they dont shoot themselves in the foot that often, and certainly not over one shipment. Im sure they will express their disproval, but it won't be a broad blanket of sanctions.

Valuation, but each of the shareholders will still have to come up with the money. In the scenario i identify below, a holder with 5000 shares would have to come up with $5000 (im using USD to cover the capex req, obviously would be STG equivalent) to participate. There would be a huge risk that the full subscription would not be taken up. Then i guess you could 1/ 2 the share cost and double the shares on issue. Bu still some wouldn’t be able to participate. Would be taken up those who could, why is this different . As a consequently the small holders who dont have funds get diluted into oblivion, far more than if a placement made by a major investor at a large premium, justified by the known economics of the project rather than stock markets perception of the economics and the consequent risk premium it decides to attach to the SP. the private placement route at least ensures everyone is treated the same, which is what you say you are trying to achieve

Further to my last note, Should M&G and ASWF stick to their commitment, 38% of those 135 million shares would be allocated to them, at a cost of almost $105 million. whether they or anyone else invests in Pensana as the holding company, or directly into the OPC, it doesn't make the slightest difference to the upside you are state you are trying to capture. if you want 100% of the upside, i suggest you come up with $275M of your own

Valuation, how do you work that out whether its you or a strategic partner, somebody is still going to have to shell out another $275 million USD. the last AGM authorised the issuing of 165 million shares on a public offering on a prorate basis on the number of shares. the 165 million being adjusted by any shares already taken up. ie now there are 135 million available. so if you want an offering, you would be offered 1 share for every 2 shares you hold, and would have to pay £2 for each share you exercised your right to. The number of shares in circulation would increase from 285 million to 420 million. how is that no dilution.

Astro, you end up with 50% of a 1 billion market cap company, instead of 100% 0f a 100 million cap company, how is that losing money (and Smart Punter, i know it is currently 75 million)

Valuation, the price they paid when first jumping on board reflected the potential risk and also does now, and that's why i said they would have to price at a company valuation of $600 million or equivalent of $1 a share with double the shares in issue as there at the moment.

In respect of Longonjo. the interests according to the 2022 annual report is actually 14% angolan government and 86% Pensana. there are no other shareholders presently.

Angolan government own 15% not 19%

Responding to Tony below. absolutely agree, my own decisions have been based on considerable dilution. Assuming that both the finance packages worth $225 million are landed, then a further $225 million is required for a total capex of $550 million. whether this is by a strategic investor taking direct equity in the opcos, or private or public placement, 50% dilution is definitely likely. why would any one put up 50% of the required funding without expecting at least 50% or more of the proceeds from a project. at the moment 34% of Longonjo and 49% of Saltend are potentially up for grabs without Pensana losing their controlling interest in either project. overall that 38% of the economic interest directly plus whatever the stake held in Pensana. if the same entities invest directly in the OPCO as have in the holding company, then their economic benefit would potentially in the ASWF an d M&G be almost 62% of the net income. but to do that, they would need to value the company at almost $600 million before construction and without any consideration of what's in the ground. which is a hell of an improvement from where we are now.

DP/SP, dont get me wrong, its a decent capital raise and this is no criticism of RBW. But it was by the directors and a single shareholder agreed at an artificial price. Whichever way you look at it, there are 20% more shares in circulation, than there were yesterday. Basically the directors have bought a large stake when the SP is at an extraordinary LOW, great move for them. Be intresting at how the subsequent SP improved the overall value position of their existing stock holding. Personally i think it was probably a good move. But definitely not altruistic or described as least dilutive. The investment means that the directors and shareholder have acquired a further 16.66% of the company at a company valuation of £45 million pounds. It is a vote of confidence in their own company, but definitely well timed and opportunistic.

Eloro, my face is well straightened thank you. May be i should have spelled it out more clearly. currently Lynas and MP are already there. Compared to the others Mkango, Peak, Rainbow, and the Australians. Pensana have all permitting, processes etc etc ready to go. Consequently they are well ahead of the pack. regarding the usual comments regarding no demand outside of China. if Adamas latest forecasts are to be believed, and it was only published last month. in 10 years time, not only will the world will need to have doubled its NdPr production, but in 2033 will also need to be adding PRE/Lynas/MP production sized facilities at the rate of 3 every year. Even if the west (or even the west and China) are able to that, the question of feedstock will also need to be addressed. Im not just confident that Pensana is going to happen in the format envisaged (Longonjo/Saltend), it has to.

Hi AS, Lewis is fortunate in that he benefits fro 20/20 hindsight. Fully agree that something doesn't seem right, but definitely a hold. Canute couldn't hold back the tide, at the end of the day the west needs more projects like PRE and Pensana is well ahead of the pack