Member Info for Mumbles2021

yesterday, i participated in a saltend shareholder presentation attended by various stakeholders, including m&g, the automotive transformation fund (atf), yorkshire energy park, future humber, px group management, east riding of yorkshire council, and the university of lincoln. the pensana team was well-represented by rob ****** (cfo), will izod, alison saxby, steve sharpe, and karen brown, a commercial consultant. notably, paul atherley was absent, a deliberate move to underscore pensana's collective strength beyond individual figures.

julian hetherington, representing the atf within the broader advance propulsion centre (apc), highlighted the alignment between pensana's goals and the atf's mission.

the visit reiterated saltend's vital role and consistent standing within the project. ensuring saltend's feedstock and financing security was paramount, with a concerted focus on advancing the longonjo project.

crucially, stakeholders were very positive regarding the funding models for longonjo and saltend that exclud equity issuance at the pre level.

longonjo's independence in the absence of saltend was emphasized. the product's market acceptance expanded beyond saltend's scope, necessitating an mrec (mixed rare earth carbonate) rather than a double sulfate. the process shift towards sulfate production was contingent on longonjo's financial assurance and off-take agreement confirmation with saltend.

discussions delved into pensana's integral role in the uk's critical minerals strategy, fueled by direct inquiries from automotive leaders. while government support specifics were not detailed, substantial backing was anticipated.

the push towards magnet metals production took center stage, complementing site plans for on-site metal production and magnet recycling following saltend's operational launch. given the unavailability of wind turbine motors until 2027, the project's urgency remained low.

timelines painted an encouraging picture. longonjo's debt facility due diligence was well-progressed, slated for completion within 6-8 weeks, bolstering the team's confidence in securing the loan. this achievement set the stage for swift saltend financing.

transparency shone through the invitation to report to various boards. a conviction in the stock's undervaluation prompted me to continue purchasing.

Eloro, Africa is home to 15% of the world population and considerably more than that of resources required to ensure the economic and general future of the planet. Nobody is disputing that Africa hasn't had more than its fair share of set backs, a considerable number of them self inflicted, just as many many, if not more the legacy of colonial and then corporate interests taking precedence over the interests of the countries in which they were governing or operating in the past. Thst doesn't mean that has to be the way that they are run in the Future.

Good morning Eloro. im sure the Uber rampers have been silent because the Uber down rampers has been equally silent. Plan A hasn't been as straightforward as initially hoped. But at least there is a plan B. I see today's update for what it is—an update on Longonjo operations. Maybe not a reason for buying, but it certainly gives transparency to the current situation, hence a reason to continue holding pending financing announcements. I know you have read everything, and you know that the DD being performed by ABSA is unlikely to be completed before the end of September. So this update changes nothing but does give the existing shareholders an update to which they are entitled. However, it shouldn't concern you if you are not a holder.

AS1971, quite possibly , but I'm claiming my first amendment rights to post what I want. Can I claim top spot with this one. And is there a prize

AS1971, you have a very short memory, it's up 85% on three weeks ago!!!! Admittedly its 50% down from 6 months ago!!!

If anyone does want to go back to bed on a Sunday, having lost the will to live, this will probably finish you off. Despite the Friday close being the lowest of the week, the daily VWAP had budged at most 0.2p since Tuesday, with Fridays being the highest but 1, The spread between hi and lo being a tad short of 10% every day bar Monday when it was 14.3%. Less than 1/2 a per cent of the share issue traded in the last five days. This stock is dull at the moment, but rather than this, the previous three weeks' excitement, thank you.

Good morning Lewis, i agree with you on this, Adamas, along with other analysts, expect the supply/demand balance to tilt to the demand side by 2027. There will be nothing the Chinese can do at this stage. By 2030, demand "growth" for NdPr, is expected to be between 15,000 to 20,000 MTs EVERY YEAR. Reuters have only identified three players that can come to fruition by 2030 (they didn't name them). Not only is there room for all prospective players. They are needed...

Lewis, im not commenting, but you could say the same to SP.

China, more of these please…….

Theo, one day when this is all over (one way or the other) id love to sit down with you over bottle of Amarone (you’re buying please). Boisdales, I’ll pay for the steak…..

Theo, i should also have added, that i live in Central London (as you know) and i take every opportunity to meet the Pensana management whenever i can. They, not just PA, have always been very helpful. the one thing I have taken away from these one on ones is that they all come across as very sincere. Beleive me after working for 25 years in West Africa many of them involved assessing these type of projects for investment, you can tell when things dont add up, i dont get that feeling with this one. I have had a good look and think about what would need to done to defer $100 million to year 3. its not a reduction but a restructuring of the construction timeline

Honest truth Theo, i believe to the Angolans have already stepped into and are driving the LJ financing. which is why i have every confidence that this time it will come off.

It would appear that the reason for the devaluation was due to the government stopping their policy of propping up the currency using the proceeds from crude sales which are lower than budgeted to amortizing the foreign currency debt thus reducing the interest payable in the current high interest rate environment. This has reduced the FX in circulation leading to the recent devaluation. Before this it had been very stable from November 2022. Fitch have revised the outlook from positive to stable, the rating remaining B-. The revised Fitch report dated 23rd June can be found at https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-revises-angola-outlook-to-stable-affirms-at-b-23-06-2023

Theo, believe it or not some us do have a clue about the how it can work, maybe not the specifics, there being enough information available , if you have knowledge of how Project finance works and are able to run your own model . Secondly whilst the local currency may have devalued, the functional currency for the construction and the product is US Dollars, consequently the impact of the devalued Lwei is that Opex costs that are incurred in local currency will be lower in relation to US Dollars, From a free cash flow generation perspective this is positive and can only help in providing the cash flow required to meet the debt coverage criteria.

You have no idea do you SP, do you really think that Non-Execs such as Jeremy Beeton, or Steve Sharpe would put their name or sign of on this if it is as you say. As i have said many times before, what you say “is compulsory”, is not. Doesn't mean to say that the financiers will not do their due diligence before before making a decision. That is what ABSA are doing at the moment . The difference between my posts and yours is that I’ve lived this life. Up to readers of this forum to decide what they want to believe. I would prefer do their own research and determine what is required in a typical project finance loan structure.

DP/SP, in respect of valuing Ozango for project financing purposes, it has nothing to do with market cap as its not a listed company. It has everything to do with the potential investors (in this case the Angolan sovereign wealth fund) determining a commercial valuation based initially on expected as built costs and existing asset values, against the operating companies ability to generate free cash flow that meets the financiers debt coverage requirement during the tenor of the loan (which almost always include a front end payment moratorium during which interest on the drawn down amount will be incurred and have to paid back within the same period), followed by the estimated NPV of those cash flows for the expected life of the investment. It has nothing to do with the Share price and ultimate market cap as determined by market sensitivities. Consequently a worst case scenario where FSDEA take up a maximum option of 35% would suggest they value the Longonjo operation at $228 million at this stage of its development. Which is the expected cost of building the asset, without consideration of expected future profits. From their perspective this represents incredible value compared to the potential revenue expected to be generated.

Re your comments on build costs, i have no problem believing the budget figures determined by Wood group, who have costed based on the data applicable to the location and project. Without providing comparative numbers to enable a like for like analysis your statements dont standup. A huge proportion of development projects require the construction of entirely new infrastructure, railway lines, roads, some times over 100’s of miles, power generation facilities, power lines, some projects even require the construction of a port to bring the equipment in. These items can add many tens, sometimes 100’s of million of USD to a project CAPEX. Longonjo does not need them, , it is only 6 kms from the rail way line which os connected to a modern port. The initial attraction of the Longonjo reserve was that the reserves are virtual at the surface consequently the capex required to develop the mine are extremely low, The budget figures and what the plant and machinery required at the site are all available on the website. If you have an idea of construction and fabrication costs you can form an estimate of your own. So your statement “IS OBVIOUS TO ANY ONE WHO LOOKS” isnt obvious to me

TDA depends entirely on how the finance is structured. The expected structure for Longonjo has the 20 million ABSA loan plus 80 million from the Angolans, which will be either a loan or equity or a combination of both. Currently, the Angolan contribution consists of $ 15 million of debt. Leaving a question of how the balance of $65 million will be structured. Whether debt or equity determines the cash distribution to Pensana PLC, PRE owns 85% and will not go below 51% (or 50% plus one share). We are still determining what the discussions have been regarding the Angolan expectations are from their direct intervention to make the project work. But if the 35% maximum shareholding and $80 million contribution are converted to As-built asset cost, the project (or Market cap, without considering future P&L) would be valued at $228 million. Taking up their full equity option in Ozango of 35% would reduce Pensana's share of the cash distribution by a maximum of 40%. But this would be from the first day of positive cash flow. If it is put in as debt, then depending on the debt repayment obligations, cash available for distribution to Pensana will be reduced at the front end. Still, it will increase to 85% once the debt is repaid. Pensana favours the debt option; unsurprisingly, the Angolans favour equity. Either way, there is no direct dilution in the PRE share price due to dilution. Still, valuations based on potential future profits will take a hit of a max of 40% based on the level of Angolan Equity in Ozango. If Saltend is built, this hit could be less than 20%, with Ozango contributing 50% rather than 100% of the P&L.

China, the bots are, and are logically, more effective at lower trading volumes. Their actions have a more significant effect at this time than when large volumes are transacting. The SP direction is a consequence, not a trigger, of the BOT activity.

Maybe they could, if it becomes necessary. Current plans are for it not to be. But optionality has considerable value.

Ok, AS1971, why did you participate in what you believe to be a self-fulfilling prophecy? You ask what the point of Sundrums post was. I ask you, what was the point of the posts you made? They served no purpose other than to potentially increase your losses. I usually refrain from taking part in the pointless tit-for-tat that takes place on this forum. Preferring to post information and opinion that I hope helps shareholders to form a balanced view. All your posts since you joined this page have encouraged holders to sell before they lose any more. Why was that?