Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
REETECH, That's old news; you know that the price dropped dramatically from the beginning of the Year, having varied from 56,000 on Jan 8th down to 49K in the middle of May. Compared to the quota, China had a surplus of over 6,000 mts last; this year, they are expecting a deficit of slightly less than 1,000 MTs. consequently, the NdPr price has increased to the highest it has been since the beginning of the year. it seems that the magnet manufacturers are stockpiling now as they don't expect the prices to drop less than they are paying now but rather to increase.
Cheap option, you've got to be in it to win it, and this cost less than 15mts of copper at today's prices, with plenty of price upside expected. Obviously very little is know on the CAPEX, OPEX or expected Ciu recovery, but that's the point of rhe extended DD period. 12 months is a significant time period for exclusivity.
Ndpr prices:, and up every week for the last 5 weeks. Might find this interesting https://www.adamasintel.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Adamas-Intelligence-and-Tradium-EU-CRMA_Opportunities-Challenges-Viability-and-Next-Steps-April-2023.pdf
I did raise a question, "If Saltend has a processing of capacity of 40,000 MTs p.a., from which 12,500 of separated Rare earths are obtained. what happens to the balance, 27,500 MT's, does it go to landfill?"
Answer; "it ispredomnantly Gypsum for which their is a market". not a huge income but another revenue stream, inaddition to the lanthanum and Cerium. Together, they will probably pay Saltends wages, and have to be disposed of anyway.
Hi lewis, it should be clear that the 15 million "Bridging loan" is part of the fiancing structure Longonjo, belongs to Ozango limited and is not accessible to PRE. As at Dec 31, 4 million was already spent as you say, as of 27th March 7.5 million is spent. Since last years unfortunate interims. they have raised $10,000, plus received $1,500,000 of tax credits, (which i referred to as 2 million, and was questioned on my honesty previously). So $11.5 million, and had some debts to cover from that.
Other than that I agree with most of every thing you say. As far as i am aware, costs external to Longonjo are on close to a care and maintainace basis, except where PRE also has obligations to the Angolans and Longonjo, as per the existing contract all product ex Longonjo is obligated to PRE, and they are responsbile for markting the product, also some funds are need where PRE have work programs to comply with license obligations for the Coola and Sulima licenses and also to keep the Saltend part of the project warm. i woudnt think these are too high in the big picture. Obvious salaries need to be paid,
DP/SP, I fully support your statement on this
I should also add that loans by South African banks also qualify under the ECIC mandate not just goods, as does finance from other AFRICAN countries. However, South African content requires a minimum of 50%; overall, African content is greater than 70%. https://www.ecic.co.za/products/export-credit-insurance/
Absolutely know I have figured it correctly Theo. And you have answered your own question within your post
Excellent article
ReeTech, the question is, How long will they keep up increasing supply to exceed demand. There is no point in squandering your resources in the long term. Even a slight over supply has a devastating effect on the achievable price, as the price of future supplies take the price of the last ton sold, until such time as the supply/demand balance changes.
One thing the Chinese are not is stupid. If you were them, would you exhaust tour own supplies at 1/2 or less that from a achievable price of a carefully managed extraction as a long term policy. Then be at the mercy of the external supplies to maintain your own industry.
The Export Credit Agency is the South African company ECIC. If a project's value is 70% or more African content. And at least 50% of South African, political and/or commercial risks can be insured against. This can reduce interest rates considerably on project finance.
https://www.ecic.co.za.
Never assume anything, it makes an ASS out of U and ME
Tony, the 220 million includes 20 million contingency, which hasn't been included in the cash spend forecast.
Lewis, it was £2.07, still a huge drop. i also think touting a 50% increase from a month ago is disingenuous. What I will say is that the structure seems to have turned from a sustained depression in the SP over time, to a seeming increase in it
The guidance given in the RNS is Q1 2024, although there were aspirations for Indaba conference. Which unfortunately didt come off
At a risk of severe abuse from the usual suspects.
Based on a very recent discussion, it seems that the heavy lifting for the project has been completed, and the term sheet required for the rest of the financing to proceed has been agreed upon and signed off. However, multiple stakeholders are involved, and each has their lawyers. These stakeholders include Pensana, FSDEA, ABSA, the Pan African Infrastructure Development Bank, and the South African Export Credit Insurance Company. The agreements and contracts are currently in the markup stage and circulating among the stakeholders.
As a result, the project is not being driven solely by Pensana, as the financiers and lawyers are now performing their final functions independently. An exact date when Pensana will complete and announce the financing cannot be accurately forecasted since it depends on all the stakeholders agreeing and signing off on the whole finance structure. It could be a matter of days, but if any lawyer raises a query, it has to go around all the stakeholders for comments and signatures, which can delay the process. This isn’t unusual in a relatively complex structured finance arrangement such as this one. Patience is required, but everything seems to be on track, as previously advised.
GL, I'm begging you. Please do not take Theo's bait. He's bored!!! As far as Dar is concerned, if the preferred destination is East, or north through Suez (unlikely at the moment). Otherwise 2 and 1/2 weeks to Northern Europe or the states works fine. Trafigura are involved not through any altruistic motive but to get the cost of their logistics from the DR Congo copper projects to export points covered by other parties.
You are meant to be buying a card, and a present, plus making a dinner reservation for your better half tomorrow
Contrarian , I was trying to formulate a response . But can't get passed thinking that you really are an Ar*e with some kind of warped ulterior motive . And that any comment other than this one would be a waste of time effort
The reason is that no trading of shares would be able to occur before trading commences at 0800 on Monday, after the obligatory RNS at 0700 on Monday morning. I have no opinion one way or the other whether an RNS will be out on Monday, as I don't have any for any other day of the week. The guidance says Q1. That's all we have for now.