Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Equation needs to be asked, is Pensana one of the three they are referring to https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/goldman-says-west-needs-over-25-bln-investments-rare-earths-match-china-2023-07-06/
Regarding my question on ABSA DD uncertainty. this point is made because it isn't in the bag yet. However, despite the deal not going through the Sibanye Stillwater investment didnt fail the due diligence. It wasn't put in front of the investment committee until it had completed the DD, that it met the SSW criteria and was acceptable for investment (the reason it didnt go through, or to quote the investor, decision was deferred, was the prioritisation of funds for other more critical projects that came to the fore whilst DD was being carried out. consequently, the ABSA DD isn't expected to raise any issues, but it has to be done.
AS1971. Given you my opinion. What is yours please. Despite the title of your post, you obviously have one.
The facts are:
The actions in the last RNS are happening -
15 miilion in the bank and being used in Angola
10 million in the PLC account, covering the immediate liabilities and funding G and A costs
ABSA loan approved pending outcome of Due diligence. (The uncertainty)
A funding arrangement for Longonjo where the equity part of the 80/120 million is in place
The company is not falling over any time soon.
Regardless of past performance and I’ve been critical in the past, but always focussed on whether the outcome despite the missteps is likely or not likely. At the moment the project has never been closer or more likely to happen. Whether that is due to the Angolans taking over the show or not Pensana still own 85% of Ozango. If the Angolans wanted to play hardball they wouldn’t have fronted the 5 million along with M&G after the disaster of the interim (how in hell that got released in the way that it did still baffles me). Supporting the view that they have confidence in the local LJ team headed by Tim George and their ability to execute the project.
The above does not justify the current price action. I subscribe to the view that there has been a flood of shares onto the market from leveraged shares being closed out. Ie Shares purchased on credit with the hope of making a quick killing. The facilitators of these arrangements will never take risks, once the collateral shows signs of being underwater the position is closed out. This current debacle is the fallout from the share price collapse after the interim, and the consequent erosion of the collateral that was put in place and the inability of the holders to meet the margin calls.
The market will settle, because there are NO reasons as far as the company progress is concerned or any insolvency questions to justify the current position. So it must be another reason. In which care it will resolve itself SOONER rather than LATER
Lewis is it a prediction if you know and have control of where it is going........
If im honest Eloro, little bit too precise for my liking, if put my tin foil hat on, i could be forgiven that some serious, really serious manipulation was going on there.
But as i dont have a tin foil hat, im going to go with my previous opinions of today. But you can tell me, do i need to buy a new roll of bacofoil!!!!!!
SP, the beauty of the human race is that we have differing opinions. some we agree with, some we don't. it makes life interesting and in may cases motivates and helps in finding resolutions to problems and events that we experience on the way. if we were to take the first advice given without questioning it, where would we any of us be now. Generally, not in respect to PRE.
in this case, i don't believe this journey is over. I base this on my own research, not on the opinion of another whose own interest may or may not be vested in a different outcome to the one im expecting.
Eloro, I'm not going to make any pretence it is painful to watch. But is has to be stressed that they only crystalise in to a loss when sold.
I also need to stress that shareholders need to retain their independence to make their own decisions as to when to sell. it would appear that some, have delegated that decision making to others whose only interest is in covering their own positions with no regard to the potential of the shares being held.
There is nothing wrong with this, it is the risk that should be understood when these positions are taken.
SP for one i agree with you, it would be helpful if the board and Exco bought some shares. At this price they are crazy not to. They only need to disclose it.
if shareholders dont believe that Longonjo will be funded in the short term they need to consider their holding. otherwise hold. Im holding. As this current situation is nothing to do with Pensana as a company per se, and everything to do with brokers covering their position.
If anyone thinks that when the futures price of WTI went negative it had anything to do with market fundamentals they are wrong. it was entirely to do with traders taking long positions need to be covered at rollover. it was a temporary anomaly in which a lot of people lost money and a lot of savvy traders made a fortune. not dissimilar to the situation now
The Longonjo project finance is completely ring fenced to Ozango, which is a standalone legal entity. (of which Pensana is an 85% shareholder). The funding is all in the name of Ozango and is entirely dependant on the Due Diligence carried put on that legal entity, it has nothing to do with Pensana and is consequently totally independent of the Pensana Share price. The Angolans have confirmed backing and stumped a further $15 million to support that statement. The Angolan facility and the ABSA facility are contingent on each other, but the gearing is only 60% with the Angolans providing the balance 40%. to repeat, the SP has absolutely NO IMPACT on the ability of Longonjo to be financed.
Now to sit back and watch the comments.
Lets air some dirty laundry here, whoever allowed the interim report to go out with information that didnt represent the true picture of the companies true financial position deserves their collective backsides to be kicked. The fact that the SP hasn't recovered is a reflection of how the market justifiably views that situation. It caused untold and unnecessary losses to hundreds, if not thousands of shareholders. Whether it was due to incompetence or naivety (either of which is concerning) will probably never be known. Subsequent information indicates that the company was nowhere near close to going into administration, but the damage is done. The only way that it will recover is if funding is announced. It may or may not be. Its up to individual shareholders to decide one way or the other. I have listened and formed my own opinion. Some assumptions have been made. The main assumption being that, whatever the board is, it isn't made up of liars. regarding receding announcements made at the EGM, shareholders need to accept at face value or not. You pays your money, you takes your choice.
As1971, you made a statement regarding recovery from a 90% drop in share price. You were given a real world example of company having done just that. The fact that it was a company that occupies the same space as Pensana is actually irrelevant to the answer to question asked. I wonder if the shareholders were making the same comment regarding competent management when it actually happened, I suspect not.
Definite tree shake China, some definite buying going on at the moment
DP/SP we missed you
Longonjo funding to be confirmed in a couple of weeks. Saltend will have to wait for a few months. All formalities signed off. support from the two major shareholders (ASWF and M&G who between them own almost 40%) plus Absa bank in South Africa. Combination of debt and equity for full $ 305 million. Full structure not revealed at this stage.
DP/SP that is really trolling the depths even for you. Think there have been riots in London since this event.
Tend to agree Sundry, as soon as i saw the notice of the GM on the 8th, i stopped expecting any updates until that time. whether that is right or not is a different discussion.
are you bored theo, or started smoking again and have a *** packet to do a few rough calcss on the back of. there's a few months left yet....seems that there were a couple of million of receivables due, some vat, pus majority of the debt was long term. (some wasn't). and before you say anything, no im not particularly happy with the current situation. equally i dont believe there is any chance of them going into receivership either
SP/DP, ABSA are the book leader for a consortium consisting of UK Export Finance, US International Development Finance Corporation, and World bank International Finance Corporation. in addition is the Export Credit Insurance Corporation of South Africa. the role of the ECIC to provide credit risk insurance to South African construction equipment suppliers and fabricators for the Longonjo project. Whilst the American are significantly upset at the South Africans, they dont shoot themselves in the foot that often, and certainly not over one shipment. Im sure they will express their disproval, but it won't be a broad blanket of sanctions.
Valuation, but each of the shareholders will still have to come up with the money. In the scenario i identify below, a holder with 5000 shares would have to come up with $5000 (im using USD to cover the capex req, obviously would be STG equivalent) to participate. There would be a huge risk that the full subscription would not be taken up. Then i guess you could 1/ 2 the share cost and double the shares on issue. Bu still some wouldn’t be able to participate. Would be taken up those who could, why is this different . As a consequently the small holders who dont have funds get diluted into oblivion, far more than if a placement made by a major investor at a large premium, justified by the known economics of the project rather than stock markets perception of the economics and the consequent risk premium it decides to attach to the SP. the private placement route at least ensures everyone is treated the same, which is what you say you are trying to achieve
Further to my last note, Should M&G and ASWF stick to their commitment, 38% of those 135 million shares would be allocated to them, at a cost of almost $105 million. whether they or anyone else invests in Pensana as the holding company, or directly into the OPC, it doesn't make the slightest difference to the upside you are state you are trying to capture. if you want 100% of the upside, i suggest you come up with $275M of your own