Member Info for mrtibbles

Shame the SP doesn't reflect this, but then it won't I suppose until the markets see some convincing proof that the grade problems are being coped with and production is restored.

Yes, I thought that may be the case, perhaps he just repeated Andrew Pardey's prediction/script of 560,000 oz to the the Egyptian media without really understanding how or if it was actually achievable then?

Just about sums up why things went so wrong, I'm not saying that he isn't useful, but wouldn't it be better if the mine manager knew a bit more about mining or at least made sure of the facts they were intending to release to the media?

Thank you Mick,
Some very decent and knowledgeable people posting on this forum!

https://www.euronews.com/2019/04/08/explainer-for-feds-trillions-in-bonds-size-isnt-all-that-matters

Quite so Dasut,
Pardey should have known better that to state this, I don' know what Yousssf actually knows about mining, he may be in the post for other reasons, although he seemed delighted to announce the forecast in the Egyptian media, possibly he thought his would impress, although now he has to back pedal because he hasn't delivered!

The brokers state that the discount will remain in place until the court case is resolved in Centamins favour,!

So unless I have missed a recent resolution of the court case in Centmins favour or all of the brokers have suddenly decided to change their minds in unison then the share price remains discounted..

Still we shall see if ever any of us live long enough for the commissioners to make a ruling on Law 32!

By the way as always you expressed your views most excellently without emotion, unlike me!
Re the additional LHDR , I seem to recall that Andrew Pardey stated in one of the most recent telephone question sessions that the additional rig may also be used in actual production to try and help cope with the underground grade problems , so you are most probably right about the new production people wanting to make use of any available plant!

Thank you Dasut for your opinion and explanation, it si appreciated.
Fair comments about Josef and as you explain he really should be able to trust those in charge of actual production to give him a true assessment of the present situation on the shop floor and of forward production levels.
People like these?
Andrew Pardey, chief executive of Centamin, said: "Our 2016 guidance has been updated to reflect the strong first half."
"The key focus for the operation during the coming quarters remains on realising the potential for sustained productivity and cost improvements." http://www.cityam.com/247263/centamin-production-upgrade-helps-gold-miners-shares
Youssef el-Raghy
Chairman of mineral exploration and mining company Centamin Egypt Youssef el-Raghy said Sunday.
He said that the EMRA’s profits from Sukari gold mine are expected to reach some $115 million in 2018, while the fixed royalty paid twice a year to EMRA is worth $22 million.
In accordance with the terms of the Concession Agreement, EMRA is entitled to a share of 50 percent of SGM’s net production surplus. Raghy expected EMRO’s profits to increase if gold prices surpassed the current average of $1,250 per ounce.
The Ministry of Petroleum-affiliated EMRA has obtained $260 million from the mine since the company started dividing profits with the government in October 2016, Raghy said.
He added that the company targets producing between 550,000-560,000 ounces of gold in 2018, up from 540,000 in 2017.
Sukari mine, the country's sole gold-exporting mine, produced around 100 tons of gold since it started operations in January 2010, Raghy said, stating that the average monthly production is spanning between 1.2-1.5 tons of gold.

i am not aware of any of the long term members on here practicing trolling, although I agree that many of us don't approve of shorting or the manipulation of precious metals prices by way of the Comex paper trading, introduced by Nixon's administration, that says it all really!
It certainly isn't just me who is of the opinion that Centamin share price is discounted by 20% because of the unresolved court case, if you care to read some of the articles on the subject you will find that the majority of brokers continue use the court case as a reason to discount the Cey share price
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/centamin-eyes-end-of-legal-pains
Stockbroker Numis says: 'While by no means certain this could well squash the legal case and remove the stone around Centamin's neck.' Goldman Sachs comments: 'The overhang on Centamin (regarding the ongoing challenge in relation to the Sukari concession agreement) has been removed. We see today's announcement (Law32) as a big positive for the stock.'
Westhouse Securities says: 'It is obviously positive news for the company, and reinforces our belief that the company is likely to win its appeal. However, until the challenge is removed we are retaining our 18% discount rate on the stock.' If the ruling is made in Centamin's favour, we expect a significant re-rating in the share price as the market once again returns its focus to the actual mining operations.
From Buchanon Centamin PR " Very important for Centamin to maintain its position vis a vis the court case – it is a distraction, and yet it is the single biggest issue undermining the share price."
FROM THIS ARTICLE: Fri 18/08/2017 15:04
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-miner-centamin-expects-court-105729872.html
June 16 (Reuters) - A legal dispute that has jeopardised Egypt-focused gold miner Centamin Plc (Toronto: CEE.TO - news) 's only producing mine is likely to be resolved before the end of this year, Chairman Josef El-Raghy said.
"My expectation is certainly you'll see a resolution of that case before the end of the year," El-Raghy told Reuters in an interview.
"Our expectations are that the new government does what it has already started to do ... that it continues to adhere to the agreements that have been signed with investors."
El-Raghy said Centamin, which has a market value of about $1.2 billion, was open to buying more assets in Egypt. The company has so far invested $1 billion in the country.
"When the government turns its attention to making more ground available, we will continue to signal that we would like to be there," El-Raghy said.
So was Josef being brave [or extremely confident] to put an expectation on a court case where there's no definite resolution yet., although in the same interview he states that Centamin may buy [or rather, remains open to buy] more Egyptian assets

Quite so Rebess, Yet despite Josefs statement his brother the Sukari manager announced in the Egyptian media that Sukari would be producing 560,000 oz in 2018-19, also Andrew Pardey stated the same figures in the 2018 Q1 presentation!
If the Sukari team could produce gold as well as they produce media hype and spin then we would all be getting a good divi this year rather than scraps and promises of better times in the future if we are just patient, after all eight years isn't long for a court case based on lies and innuendo!

Please don't think that I'm not grateful for your thoughts and input Dasut, I am most grateful,
However in my view Josef had then and has now once again a responsibility & duty to safeguard the best interests of the share holders, it states this in the mission statement on the company website.
So no side stepping for Josef of his responsibility just because its awkward being two weeks before any presentation, two weeks,two days or whatever.
True the share price may have taken a hit if honesty and integrity had prevailed, and Josef had done the right thing in the first instance, but he didn't and instead he allowed figures and forward predictions to be announced that created the impression of much better sustainable forward guidance to the market and share holders than was actually possible, not only that he sold ten millions shares and decided to walk away, yet when questioned on this Buchanon stated hat nothing was wrong and Josef was just taking more of a back seat nowadays!
So when the truth came out (3 weeks after 2018 Q! upbeat forecast )that the previous 24 months or bonus production had been achieved by "high grading and this coupled with the managements failure to mitigate production by allowing the underground LDDR to fall apart, the resulting hit by the market was much more severe and far longer lasting than if the management had been totally open and honest in the first instance
I appreciate that you are a decent chap and that you want to give the management the benefit of the doubt and that unforeseen difficulties occur in gold mining, but there is little excuse for what has gone on here, the share price has been manipulated up by high grading & media hype of unsustainable ongoing guidance.
But the wheel has fallen off the LHDR, the underground mine has grade and access problems and the managements tactics and the true state of Sukari have now been exposed.
What is really sad is that the Centamin management have lost their credibility with share holders and the markets,but unfortunately it is not them who are paying the price but instead the patient and once trusting share holders!
No doubt some of the usual posters who are not whom they claim to be will pop up over the next few days telling me that mining is difficult, get over it or be patient, I've heard it all before!
I want the management to get off their butts and deliver more than promises of better times some time in the future perhaps!

Thank you Dasut,
I note your comments, but in view of Josef's reservations shouldn't he have put those building up output expectations right, instead he seems to have condoned or remained silent about their behavior and then profited from it by selling a huge amount of shares at an opportune time?

Confirms what Andrew Maguire and other so called conspiracy theorists have been saying for years!

Sadly the past 12 months or so events have has made it appear as though the company is being run mainly to give advantage and maximise the rewards of a privileged few at the top table at the expense of the share holders!

Fair comment bardill,
So perhaps now Josef has returned he should seriously consider showing his commitment to the company and its share holders by rectifying some of the damage caused over the past 12 months or so.
1.Buy back at lest the number of shares he sold, albeit at a bargain price!
2. Make a concerted effort to get the court case resolved or settled in some way.
Both or either of these actions would help to restore market confidence in the company and help boost the share price.

Very good point Rebess , it does seem like double standards!
For eight years the company management board appears to have been sitting on its hands over the court case, whilst it costs the company at least 20% of market cap, surely by allowing the court case to drag on like this the board are failing in their duty to safeguard the best interests of the share holders which they claim as being a .
Even if this had gone to the international court after waiting two years the case would have still been settled by now.
It's al very well to for the company management to want to foster a good working relationship with the government, but this situation seems very one sided and there comes a time (nearly eight years) when one has to ask "Are they having my leg up?"
I appreciate that Siko says we need to be patient, although surely even by Egyptian standards eight years waiting must be deemed to be very patient indeed?

Thank you Dasut,
I wonder is using these contractors more cost effective than using an in house team and will it mean that they may actually be producing some gold in a tighter time frame?

( if the SCC found law32 constitutional, then the case should be dismissed based on law 32, while if the SCC found law 32 unconstitutional, then the SAC should be able to rule based on the merits of the case/appeal.)

06 March 2017-05-06

http://qary.net/egypt/331304.html

http://www.s777.org/Msr/2017830.html

The available information so far is that the lawyer defending law 32 argued that the claimants, represented by Mr Khalid Ali, did not have the status nor the interest to file such case, and asked for the case to be adjourned in order to reply to the contents of the commissioners report which stated that they did have the right to file such case, also to reply to the commissioners claims invalidating the voting at the parliament which approved law 32.
He also stated that law 32 was issued to protect the economy and the stable legal positions, and did not contradict or restrict the judiciary, and all these points were confirmed in the commissioner’s report submitted to the Administrative Court
The SCC then decided to send the case back to the commissioners.

Perception versus reality speech by Centamin Chairman at conference
https://youtu.be/40a7qtAWcqk

24 April 2014, 10:33 If the ruling is made in Centamin's favour, we expect a significant re-rating in the share price as the market once again returns its focus to the actual mining operations. At its peak in 2010, the shares hit 190p.price!
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/centamin-eyes-end-of-legal-pains

However, until the challenge is removed we are retaining our 18% discount rate on the stock.'

We could certainly do with a re rating, this unresolved court case is far more significant than some people realise.