Member Info for mrtibbles

I am not qualified to agree or disagree with Kees Dekker, but he seems to nave been right about the grade problems.
I think we must also remember his findings are only based on the information made available to him by Centamin at the time.
I posted the links so that everyone could come to their own conclusions.
Would it not be a great PR opportunity for Centamin to invite him along to disprove his conclusions?
As a long term investor I am still waiting to see some proof from Centamin that things have improved significantly.

Fair comments Mizolgit!

Last year I sent copies of Kees Dekkers 2015 & 2018 reports to all the main Centamin offices for the the attention of Andrew Pardey(Who had denied seeing the 2015 report) and also to Josef & Youssef El Reaghy and copied in Bobby Morse the Buchanon PR man,
It is not unreasonable to suspect that Josef had prior knowledge of the impending low grades even before 2015 and he must have been aware of the high grading taking place to cope with them.
I suggested to Andrew Pardey that they should include Kees Dekker in one of the analysts site visits as this would demonstrate the confidence the company has being in able to cope with the low grades and to restoring future production to the promised 560.000ozs of 2018 Q1.
As you might suspect I have not received the courtesy of a reply on this matter from Mr Pardey or any other member of the Centamin management despite them having all my personal contact details.

I quite agree in the cases of the companies you mention, as I explained in my initial post.

it all depends on the particular situation with a company at the time as to if a share buy back would help the share price rise.

In our case the company has no debt and a some spare cash and is confident about its strategy, (as far as we know )so a share buy back may well result in an appreciation of the share price.

If a company is not confident about its strategy and it is in financial trouble then a share buy back may be a way to try and hide the truth and buy it some borrowed time so in those circumstances a share buy back would not be prudent.

Personally I would like the court case resolved as a matter of urgency!

I had missed that one, although is is pretty bland.

fair comments Cowichan!

Of course you will upset 'Pushmepullyou" with them, he will most probably disagree and possibly also write to Andrew!

But then not everyone is whom they claim to be!

Look what happened with Sotolo, he disappeared!

The Comex trading system is run for the benefit of the US FED and our government chooses to put the interests of its "Special friend" before those of the ordinary UK people and investors who are being scammed on a massive scale!

https://kingworldnews.com/andrew-maguire-broadcast-interview-available-now-4-27-2019/

Thanks Prof, I think I forgot to mention your name in one of my recent posts about the long term members who have contributed so much to this Cey forum over the years, so thank you Prof!
You are right in Q1 2018 Andrew Pardey called 580,000 oz on the conference call, the Sukari general manager Youssef El Raghy called 560,000 ozs at the same time in the Egyptian media.
Although the management claimed that the subsequent guidance cut 3 weeks later was due to hitting unexpected transitional low grade ore it seems that a report published Analyst Kees Dekker had warned of this in 2015, although Andrew Pardey claimed he was unaware of the Kees Dekker report (Get out whilst the going is good) this report was based on the information made available in the published company report
A further Kees Dekker follow up was published in 2018 which some may care to consult for their research
As you are aware I have always felt that the impact on underground production by the failure of the lHDR without the appropriate spare parts available or a credible back up was an appalling failure by the management to mitigate production risk.
I am still of the opinion that although LHDR are expensive not purchasing a spare until the complete prolonged stoppage of underground production has been proven to have been a very false economy, especially when considering how much spare cash the company has,
The market has been particularity severe in punishing Centamin for their errors and omissions of 2018 and Centamin's PR and communication with it's share holders and the markets has been sadly very lacking.
However I am delighted to see that hopefully things are turning around for the good at Sukari and I hope that these improvements and increases in output will be sustained!

Best

Tibbs

The ADVFN board has some strange ones on it, some of them are so full of themselves and like to make out they are some sort of market expert!
The ADVFN board is not at all user friendly and many of the members appear to be more interested in bragging about how they got it right again rather than actually contributing anything that may help other board members.
Just as on here some of the members on the ADVFN forum are not whom they claim to be, but are actually working to an agenda set by others.
But despite all this I am sure that everyone on here is really glad that you have decided to stay Hedgehogg!

I wonder are if you are a friend or relation of Sotolo by any chance, because you are both so similar in so many ways!

I wonder are if you are a friend or relation of Sotolo by any chance, because you are both so similar in so many ways!

Hi Dasut,
Very fair comments!

Quite so Rebess, I agree.
I am glad that others have recognized that Andrew Pardey is not at all in his comfort zone making these presentations.
Centamin needs to radically improve its communications with investors and presentation need to be fronted up by someone who can excite and inspire!
I wonder if Cowichan has received any answers to his questions yet?

A switch to primarily using solar at Sukari after initial development costs may have the potential to reduce AISC by a considerable amount

Resolute's proposed power plant here

https://www.rml.com.au/uploads/7/2/0/8/72081691/181126-rsg-asx-new_solar_hybrid_power_plant_for_syama_gold_mine-final.pdf

The Sukari plant is somewhat bigger than the Syama plant -by comparison processing around 12m tonnes per annum. Syama is under 4m tonnes perf annum.

Your worried about AISC and POG and yet you invest another £200k?
What about your future divi it will be pants if any at all?

http://www.mining.com/10-mines-still-making-good-money-if-the-gold-price-falls-50/

Question 01.12.2016 With the potential of fuel price increasing and the price of gold dropping and considering that profit share has started is Cey still positioned to make money above $700 per oz?

Answer Yes. If gold falls below $700 per oz then the profit share goes down to almost nil. Above AISC costs then we are in free cash flow which we share.
The rise in the oil price is not enough of rise as to what is in the model anyway, and the rise (or fall) is done on a quarterly basis anyway.

Question 06.10.2017 Will the AISC fall further from its present level when Cleopatra is fully operational?

Answer
Cleopatra is an exploration decline and will only become production if the resources are economical. You should not factor that in as yet until we know. Drilling and assaying is ongoing and we went through exactly the same process with the Amun/Ptah decline, it is the same orebody, but Cleopatra is accessing a part of the orebody which is not well understood/pre-drilled.

However, re AISCs, these will rise and fall in relation to the ounces produced (more produced/lower costs, less produced/higher costs). Clearly if Cleopatra does come in, though there will be reasonable cost involved in the development work (moving all of the rock for crosscuts, drives, ventilation, emergency access, stoping panels, etc) the head grade would have to be at a level which is justifies this expense and yes, the AISCs would certainly come down.
But in the short term the increase in production will come from using the Amun/Ptah decline more efficiently and raising production from 1mtpa of ore to 1.2m or 1.3mtpa, improving the throughput of the plant from c.11.5mtpa, and better grades out of the open pit. All of these factors, excluding anything from Cleopatra, would drop AISCs further.

I seem to recall Andrew Pardey stated that the forecasts have been based on gold @ $1250 on several occasions

I think you forget that a share buy back would send out a the right message to the market and especially at at this level it may well increase the share price considerably.

So the shares held in any ISA if sold would not be subject to CGT , however large the profit.

the larger dividend in the past was due to an additional one off payment and this has been wiped out for long term holders by the drop in share price.

The dividend this year is nothing special and the share price is pants!

Why Buy Your Own Shares Back...?
A buyback usually reduces the number of a company’s free-floating shares because connected or long-term shareholders rarely sell. Company leaders usually claim that they think the share price is undervalued at the time of a buyback announcement. Such claims can rarely avoid the presumption that there are not more profitable investment opportunities available instead.
In some countries, buybacks happen purely as a tax reduction strategy. This is often the case if capital gains are not taxed or if they are taxed at a lower rate than dividends. Therefore, management may choose to distribute cash through a share buyback rather than a dividend.
According to Bloomberg data, 2018 recorded $800 billion in gross share buybacks, up from $530 billion in 2017 As well as contributing to bull markets, they also make it easier for company leaders to hit quarterly earnings-per-share targets and hand out bonuses based on stock prices. Bonuses that could have been put to other use. Buybacks have outdone capital expenditures in recent years while wages were nearly flat and at record lows.
http://valuationmasterclass.com/impact-share-buybacks/

I absolutely agree Cowichan!