Member Info for mrtibbles

re "Many mines would need to be built."

Under present terms that is'nt going to happen, not one of the companies who won the last round of concessions has even started to do much apart from complain that the terms of their concessions are not commercially viable.

The only gold producer Centamin's which according to some enjoys a supposedly favourable profit share agreement in its present form is not as profitable ,especially with the low ore grades, the cut in output and the increased AISC.

Good interview Cowichan,
Once again it highlights just how much Egypt is being held back by outdated and completely out of touch attitudes and the urgent need for change!

So what is the probability of this change taking place I wonder, past experience is that there are lots of fine statements and proposals and then nothing happens because whatever is proposed is deemed to be unconstitutional or undemocratic.

Interesting paragraph though - Let's talk about the mining industry in Egypt, and how this sector is really suffering now.

Unfortunately, the terms that were set to explore gold ore in 2016 didn't help a lot. This sector and its laws and regulations need to be totally restructured in way that can attract investors in similar countries like Australia, South Africa, and Morocco.

I have always said that Law32 has done Centamin no favours!

Lets hope that Sisi gives those obstructing change a kick up the butt!

We need that court case settled!

We also need some better grades and production output fully restored at Suaki performance at Sukari including some decent ore from Cleopatra and some real evidence that there is actully going to be soem ore coming out of Burkina Faso.

Trumps selfish oil embargoes against Iran & Venezuela have pushed up the AISC and his home policies and trade tariffs have not been good for the POG, but Trump is an inward thinking greedy politician who is far to bigoted to change and so we probably have to wait until he gets kicked out or loses the next election for any change.

Sorry typo below in 2nd para so I am correcting here

As Tornadtony stated we are all grateful that Siko has been good enough to pass on the information about events in Egypt which as many of us long term investors have come to realise is usually open to very wide interpretation or the probability of happening,certainly on official matters of the state.

Having said that Siko's past information about the company has tended to have been nearer the mark and more reliable,

Please Mr LSE web master can we have an edit button on these pages,
Thank You!

As I listened o this programme on Saturday evening I was reminded of the how differently things have turned out at Sukari when compared to what Siko's contact had predicted.

As Tornadtony stated Siko we are all grateful that SIKO good enough to pass on the information about events in Egypt which as many of us long term investors have come to realise usually open to very wide interpretation or probability of happening,certainly on official matters of the state.

Having said that Siko's past nformation about the company has tended to ben nearer the mark and more reliable, which may be why unfolding events at Sukari in 2018 came as such a surprise and disappointment to us all, Siko included no doubt!

To be fair to Siko he made us all aware of some comments made by a previously reliable source which he accepted in good faith, there is no way of really ever knowing what the motives were for Siko's contact's comments, so it seems right that we should assume that the comments were made with sincerity and good intention at that time.

As Tornadtony already stated it is up to individual investors make their own decisions on the accuracy or reliability of any information,although as pointed out in this radio programme investors also need to consider the probability of which way an event will turn out!

So based on our past experiences of Centamin & Egypt what is the probability of good times coming, now this is where it gets really difficult!

The Risk Makers
Archive on 4
Experts have dominated the prophecy business, but risk takers deserve better. Why, in the risk game, it is better to be a fox and not a hedgehog.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0002rq8

But is the price so ridiculous, some are of the opinion that its about right after taking into account the guidance cuts, the increase in AISC and profit share?

This years divi is pants compared to what was paid in the past.
No real news regarding if the the Sukari output is restored or if the ore grade quality has improved.
The Court Case is still in limbo.
Law 32 is still being kicked down the road.
Lack of any real news on Burkina Faso.

I really don't know what to think anymore though after such a disappointing 2018

Thank you Siko, I hope that you are well!

I understand that you posted in good faith what you were told by a third party, your Egyptian contact.
Yesterday In view of the depressing situation on here about the dropping share price and the remarks made by someone who was selling out about the ftse P/E ratio, profit share etc I thought I would try and give others who were concerned some hope!

After all as far as I recall when your Egyptian contact made the comments to you they didn't apply a time scale of exactly when these good times were coming, from our experience thus far the good times may arrive at any time in the next year or few years!

Also to be fair to them they may have been as uninformed as the majority of share holders about the "Unexpected low grades", certainly they wouldn't have had an inkling hat the LHDR was about to suffer such a catastrophic breakdown at the time they spoke to you.

As many of us long term holders are aware any news, opinion or rumour in the the media or just in oral circulation in Egypt is always open to wide interpretation!

I am sure that you will agree though that Cenatmin have not helped the general mood by adopting a policy silence rather than one of support to its share holders,

Remember that what Siko told us!

So educate us all and tell us why are you intending on buying back in?
Rising AISC
No result ion for the court case for probably two decades!
Management has lost market trust
Ongoing grade problems!
Price of gold dropping with no respite anytime soon, according to some!
Dollar rising!
Surely this share is a FTSE 250 PE stinker and might get kicked out?

Please don't think me rude but I have always believed that a persons average is best kept confidential.
After all there is no way of knowing if I would be telling the truth in any case?

I was giving a comparison about the situation in Egypt as it was then, what the share price was at that time when compared to now, at east the company is still producing more gold than it was at those times even with the cut in production.

Like a few others on here I am a holder of over a decade and can remember the share price being at these sort of levels when there was rioting in the streets and political upheaval!
Its also worth remembering at that time that the Capex was still being repaid and profit share hadn't even started!
So considering that the Capex is now fully repaid and Sukari is actually producing gold albeit at a reduced rate as far as e know there is no justification for the share price being his low.even allowing for profit share.
The market and share holders have lost faith in the manegment and until that faith is restored this share price is condemned to go lower!

Trumps sanctions have caused gold sale!
https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-04-16/Venezuela-Sells-400-Million-In-Gold-As-Metal-Hits-4-Month-Lows-Coincidence-Analysts-Weigh-In.html

Yet not so long ago the world Gold Council was claiming that there was a glut of real gold?

I agree entirely Rebess, Centamins performance since May 2018 has been abysmal, although the resulting drop in the share price may well not have been so prolonged or so severe had Centamin reassured and supported it's share holders rather than adopting a policy of silence!
Centamin once had a reputation of under promising and over delivering, sadly since last May it has acquired quite a different reputation!

Quite so Cowichan, far better environmentally to have these mines operated by professional mining companies who also pay royalties and taxes to their host countries governments.

http://uk.stoxline.com/q_uk.php?s=cey

It is depressing, despite what some say about there being far too much doom and gloom on here all things considered it's really hardly uprising !

What would they suggest that we all start celebrating each time this share gets a spanking, it would mean mean a party every day at this rate!

Who would have thought last May after Andrew Pardeys Q1 announcements that things could be so bad!

In fact I felt better when the revolutions were going on or the mine licence was suspended, at least share holders knew more about the situation and had more hope than they do at present!

Forget that, there has been a news blackout imposed on shipments since May last year.
Remember not everyone who posts on here is who they claim to be!
Although to be fair what they actually ship is nor a reliable indication of actual gold produced.
Keep the mushrooms,thats us in the dark!

All this share gets now is spanked down, I think we must accept that if the manegment don't have any good news soon that it will just keep dropping to possibly the level it was when the license was suspended?

Still we mustn't be down must we should put on those rose colored specs!

The court case has only gone on for eight years after all the commissioners cant be rushed over Law 32 they have only been considering it for how many years now?

Perhaps Siko will post some good news to cheer us all up?
He did say that good news was coming, admittedly there wasn't any timescale!