Member Info for mrtibbles

Hidden deep inside the American National Archives there's a highly classified document once considered as the most sensitive on Earth. In 1930 America crafted an elaborate plan for war with the "Red Empire" - the most deadly enemy. But America's enemy in this conflict was not the Soviet Union, or Japan... it was not even Nazi Germany. Plan "Red" was a code word for a massive war with Britain and all her colonies.
The plan came up during the great depression, amid expansion of evil regimes around the world, and at turbulent times when even some in America have been deluded by dark forces. This documentary will reveal how such an astonishing document came to be written and who would have won if it had been put into practice. It will show how America's greatest ally almost became their deadliest enemy.
Ward didn't a break out between Britain and America in the 1930's, but there were times when they came closer than you might imagine, as American journalist Peter Carlson was to discover. He was on a visit to the American National Archives in Washington DC when he found himself entering a strange and unsettling world.
Lying untouched for years the plan "Red" contains detailed preparations for a massive war between America and the British Empire. It shows where they would fight, what troops would be needed and how the battles would unfold. Throughout the plan the Americans refer to themselves as "blue" while the British are "reds."
The British Empire at the beginning of the 20th century was the greatest the world had ever seen, but this did cause some resentment. We now think of Britain and America as having a special relationship. After all they did fight side by side in two world wars. But at the start of the 20th century the two countries have been at each others' throats for well over a hundred years, and much of the fighting had taken place in the British dominion of Canada.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2tQ04JAsnQ
https://topdocumentaryfilms.com/america-planned-war-britain-revealed/

America has always been arrogant towards the rest of the world and desperate for the dollar to knock the pound sterling off its pedestal as the world's reserve currency.
My mother in-law is German she once support to told me as a child she remembered her grandfather said that the Americans had regular meetings with high ranking Nazi party officials as the US saw it as a way to convenient way achieve their aims of world dominance.
It seems though in any war with the US wanted Hitler the British to win which obviously was'nt part of the American plan, although as it turns out America achieved its aims of bankrupting Great Britain with the lease lend agreement of unseaworthy ships and Tommy cooker tanks.
https://topdocumentaryfilms.com/america-planned-war-britain-revealed/
Trump is an example of US arrogance, although he has really shot himself in the foot with his foreign policies and trade tariffs which may well have accelerated the demise of dollar dominance of the world,

Kees Dekker's thoughts on the post An extensive and up-to-date look into the gold mining sector.

- I fully agree that we are at, or close to peak gold production. This has favourable implications for the gold price in the medium to long term. It should outperform inflation.

- precious metal sector the only sector not in a bubble? Maybe not, but is currently heavily overvalued. The industry is a consistent destroyer of value, sucking in every year large amounts of funding in return for nothing. No to minuscule dividends and hardly any growth, soon to cease altogether (i.e. peak gold). Even in the last boom cycle it sucked in fast amounts of money. In a study of the ten largest producers this was 7% of their revenue! When they cannot deliver dividends in such times, when then?? Ah, you mention growth? That was all ephemeral; the moment the gold price dropped their “reserves” dropped again.

As long as investors are suckers letting management develop sub-economic projects the gold price remains (relative) depressed. Only when stricter criteria are used new projects will be proper cash generators, covering overheads, reserve replenishment AND dividends/share repurchases.

Someone posted this in 2018,
An extensive and up-to-date look into the gold mining sector.
https://wsw.com/webcast/dgf18/keynote6/slides.pdf
For me three points of interest really stood out:
1) The major's gold reserves have been in a steady decline since 2012... I can hear you all saying 'well, duh...'
2) the major's share of total worldwide gold production has fallen from 50% in 2007 to only 40% in 2018... that's because there are more players in the game
3) if you look at the total aggregate market cap of the top 200 gold companies (now this includes streamer's like Wheaton precious metals, etc.) you'll find the industry isn't far off its valuation highs, the investment dollars are just more broadly allocated/less concentrated... probably not what some of us wanted to hear!
Still, I'm in the camp that argues Centamin is vastly undervalued... it has big potential, big reserves & big cash generation... just not a big following
Relative Value
Mining is tough and none more than gold mining.
The rationale for the proposed Barrick-Randgold merger illustrates many of the challenges even for the largest and best financed.
Yesterday Reuters reports on struggling gold miner Avocet.
All in Avocet has lost 99.3% of its share price value since it floated at 1200p p share in 2007.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-miner-avocet-hints-possible-063018713.html
Precious metals are the only major sector not in a bubble and thus wildly under-owned and out of favour.
This will change and when it does expect investors first to target the high quality miners with a solid cash balance, no debts, and a working development plan. There are very few of these companies and Centamin is one.

Kees Dekker's thoughts on the above

Hi Dasut
Due to your years professional experience and understanding of the mining industry you raise some some very pertinent questions regarding the future strategy for Sukari.
I have to agree that far to much emphasise has been placed on creating the impression that Sukari is this magical cash cow that will just carry on increasing its yield whatever!
Its pretty obvious that Youssef was appointed as general mine manager because of who he was rather than his actual mining industry knowledge or mining ability.
As Kees Dekker once remarked when he was a geologist on the mines the mine managers were almost demigods, in charge of thousands of employees. they were in those days also almost invariably mining engineers!
After the ongoing problems from 2018 onward I think it fair to say that whilst Andrew Pardey and Youssef have done an admirable job of promoting the myth of the Sukari cash cow neither of them were up to the job of running the mine properly!

In comparison to many African states Eygpt is now a very stable jurisdiction.

Thank you Mark,
Do you know the exact nature of the NHS hold up, ie, staff shortages logistics,, bureaucracy?

Hi Bob,
Thank you for the update it was only a very brief announcement on the World Service in the early hours, didn't mean to cause alarm.

I suppose you might say in some ways the UK has been treated as such when it suits the US!

Thank you Mr Gnome for the explanation re sampling the ore.

Yes, tougher lock downs in the UK, although they are still allowing most schools to open as normal which is causing some ongoing concern.

Mass insinuations starting in some areas using the new Oxford Vaccine, although this is produced in India and according to the BBC World Service the Indian government wants to take priority on produced vaccine. to inoculate their people first.

Sorry posted twice in error!

Mining Analyst Kees Dekker opinion
The specified maximum pit wall angles are comparatively low, which could be due to a number of factors: substantial unconsolidated overburden and/or unfavourable fault and joint structures relative to the pit wall. Being a dry climate, the groundwater level should be deep and hydrostatic pressure on the pit wall should not be an issue. What is exactly behind the pit wall failure is not clear. Either there are shortcomings in the study and guidelines, or management has cut corners and did not stick to the protocols and guidelines.

The volume of the deposit is not determined by number crunching, but the geological model defined for the deposit (wire frames) within which the number crunching of the samples are performed.
The model can include several domains for which there are different geostatistical parameters when doing the number crunching.
For a resource estimation to be reliable it is important that the geostatistical parameters are valid. This is in addition to the deposit having inherent characteristics making it suitable for modelling.
For example, if the coefficient of variation (= standard deviation / mean) is very high, the average grade is determined by only a very few, very high values. Resource estimates for such type of deposits are much more risky than for deposits with a low CV, even when the competent person did a lot of top cutting and/or other measures to limit the impact of these very high values.

In the case of Sukari the competent person for open pit resources used multiple indicator kriging (“MIK”). This is typically used for deposits with a very high CV. Ordinary kriging does not work well, requiring usually a CV below 2, achieved by manipulating the data by cutting the top values.
If the promoting company relies on the few very high value for a decent average grade they will push for another estimating technique.
MIK is used to allow inclusion of the very high values.

Geostatistical analysts will argue that the method is valid, but I have my doubts. The Moose River, Brucejack and Sukari deposits for which they have been used, all gave reconciliation problems.

Hi Viable,
Thank you for flagging up the link to that report on open pit movement, no doubt some of our former mining professionals and still practising geologists on here will find it especially of interest .
I shall pass it onto to several well informed contacts and also Centamin if that's OK with you?

Hi Dasut,
Moving house is no small task, so it's understandable that you haven't been in touch ,It's good to hear from you again though because I sensed your disappointment in your post just after the RNS regarding the production cut due to instability in the open pit wall.
The RNS must have been disappointing to say the least to all share holders , but I would imagine especially so to you when considering your professional commitment and involvement from the early stages of the Sukari project .

Keep well!

Tibbs

At 11pm last night the UK finally and officially left the EU’s single market and customs unions, which according to Brexiteers propaganda GDP will soon push through to new highs , the NHS’ first £350m cheque will be popping through the letterbox, huge new manufacturing bases will be spreading through the north of England quicker than the coronavirus and the likes of India, Australia and Canada will be banging on the door demanding to sign up to a new Empire 2.0.!

What will be the reality, because it will certainly affect the POG one way or the other!

Hi Mr Gnome,

Initial Reaction of Kees Dekker Geologist & mining analyst after the RNS announcement of the pit wall weakness
"It reads as if management was greedy in terms of planning too steep wall slopes and/or insufficient expenditure on geotechnical studies in the past."
Article from Seeking Alpha (Journalist Mr Taylor)
https://finanz.dk/centamin-egypt-the-worst-is-likely-over-otcmktsceltf/

Response of Kees Dekker to Seeking Alpha article-
"Mr Taylor may well be correct, but his views do not seem to be informed by having a long term vision of the mine plan.
All is predicated on assuming expedited stripping in the short term will solve all problems in the long run. Maybe, but I do not know whether this is the case.
There have been indications in the past that stripping was well behind what was required in terms of the long term plan.
Then there were indications they had problems with the actual strip ratio versus forecast strip as per guidance for the year, which could be because of difficulties distinguishing between ore and waste based on their resource model."

Kees Dekker did flag up his concerns to Andrew Pardey from 2015/16 onwards but Mr Pardey chose instead to sweep the concerns under the waste pile and carry on compounding the bad practice in order to pump up short term output rather than implementing timely remedial actions to safeguard and increase long term output and avoid the present situation in the open pit.

Tibbs

Daggermal,
We all need to ask more questions, that is how we learn and are able to help and educate others at the same time!
Glad you decided to join in the conversation!

Hi Dasut,
Considering your past professional knowledge of Sukari operations I was hopeful that you would pop in to share your opinion on the production/operational strategies you feel should be put in place.
I am certainly of the opinion that there will be no half measures or compromises on the best strategy forward with Martin Horgan in the driving seat!
It seems the right type of people are now running things on site and the right kit is being brought in to get the job done properly, but in as shorter time frame as possible without cutting any corners .
As you say it will be very interesting to hear what Martin Horgan has to say at the next update, although he must realise the stakes are very high and more shortcomings are no longer an option!
Best wishes to you,
Tibbs

I agree its best to have the correct facts but it also needs to be kept in mind that so many analysts have based their forward estimates and conclusions on information from those that may well have ulterior motives and that doesn't just apply to Centamin, but in all areas of the market.
Although in Centamins case how many of the analysts do you suppose have actually visited the mine, not many and those that did when Pardey was in charge obviously didn't ask enough of the right questions ,, such as " Why are we up to our ars(e)'s in spoil ?"," Why are the open pit walls so steep?," " What happens if the one and only LHDR tries to self destruct?" "Why is there only a single way in and out of the underground workings?" etc,etc,etc.
But they didn't !
however, there now seems to be a CEO who has grasped the nettle from the outset and is putting things right, this alone is indeed something to be optimistic about!

Market analyst Paul Mylchreest of ADM Investor Services International Ltd. in London today published a report arguing that for more than two years gold has been pushed down as part of a two-pronged trade boosting the Japanese stock index, a trade hedging its gold short with silver futures. Such a trade, Mylchreest writes, would be both "cynical" and "really clever" even as it created systemic risk. Mylchreet's report is headlined "Long Nikkei/Short Gold -- Profitable, Dangerous, and Missed By Everybody?" and it has been posted at GATA's Internet site here:
http://www.gata.org/files/FulcanelliReport-Mylchreest-Nikkei-Gold.pdf