Member Info for mrtibbles

Sukari Underground
Issues: Throughout 2016 Centamin achieved outstanding grades as high as 10g/t, significantly above the ~6g/t reserve grade at the underground operations. The underground ore sources are split between stoping activities in the Amun and Ptah ore bodies and ore from development activities. However through 2017, 2018 and much of 2019 mined grades fell, primarily due to a recurring problem, dilution.
Although this brought additional volumes this was far outweighed by the grade dilution and disruption to mine planning. After peaking at >10g/t in early 1Q16 the underground mined grade bottomed at 3.9g/t in 3Q19. Plans for operational improvements in 2017 took longer than expected, and throughout 2018/19 mining was affected by lower grades due to excess dilution in the stopes. The Sukari deposit is hosted by significant porphyry in a shear zone that is prone to
failure. The net effect of this was that whilst underground volumes increased,average grades dropped, lowering overall underground gold production
Solutions: In the underground ops the main hurdle has been overcoming ground control issues. To abate this issue Centamin commissioned a CRF (cemented rock fill) plant in 4Q19. The plant uses waste rock from the underground mining operations mixed with cement to fill the voids in mined-out stopes. This has greatly increased the stability of the mined-out areas, with dilution rates dropping from 30% to <15%, thus preventing waste rock from diluting the ore. Centamin is alsoin the midst of a major ventilation upgrade at the underground mine that will enable more active headings and help to stabilise output as the mine gets deeper.
With Sukari being infrastructure-constrained underground, this work will help to enable more headings, more consistent operations and provide platforms from which to carry out exploratory drilling without impacting daily operations.
Improving operational outlook post 2023
The downgrades to 2021-23 production from the open pit due to geotechnical issues and lower grades sees lower but increasing production for the next 2-3 years, also the life of mine review has provided more visibility and confidence for investors in the medium-term recovery in output at Sukari, which was lacking previously.
Open-pit: Due to the geotechnical issues within the open pit and the sustained under-stripping by previous management, Centamin has earmarked a 120Mt contractor stripping campaign over 4 years as part of the pathway to previous production levels. As such, ore will be sourced from the lower-grade Stage 4N and Stage 5N (0.7-0.9g/t) sections of the open pit in 1H21, with supplemental volumes from low-grade stockpiles (0.5g/t) available as needed. Centamin expects to resume mining in the higher-grade Stage 4W zone in 2H21.

Thanks Mr Bond, all is not lost, far from it, there seems to be a very capable new management team running Sukari now!

Sukari Open Pit
At Sukari the uppermost part of the orebody is an oxide resource before
transitioning to a sulphide orebody at depth. The open pit supplies the vast
majority of material to the processing plant, but at a low average grade, therefore
consistency in mining is key to sustained production and any deviation has a large
impact on total production.

Issues: Difficulties first appeared in the open pit as the transitional zone between
the near surface oxide ore and sulphide ore at depth yielded lower grades than
expected. In 2017/18 mined volumes rose from ~3Mt a quarter to peak at 6.5Mt
in 3Q18, however average grades fell from >0.8g/t to 0.5g/t in mid-2018. In fact
for all of 2017-19 the open pit failed to achieve reserve grade. This lead to
previous management focussing on short-term production/cost goals that resulted
in the stripping ratio falling below planned ratios (3.7x actual vs 5.9x LOM). This
exacerbated the geotechnical issues due to steeper pit wall angles and increased
dilution rates led to higher mined ore volumes at lower grades. In 2H19 mined ore
grades began to migrate towards the expected reserve grade, in turn raising the
average feed grades. However in 3Q20 part of the pit was shut down due to pit
wall instability as a result of inadequate stripping ratios and high groundwater
levels. This has reduced the production rate of the open pit for the next 2-3 years
as the company rectifies the issue.
Solutions: Centamin has made several beneficial changes to operations including
mining with smaller benches to reducing the risk of wall failures and additional
infill drilling has also been carried out to better understand the orebody. In turn
this has benefited mine planning, which has been centralised, allowing better
mining fleet productivity and optimised blending at the processing plant. Overall,
in the new management has embarked on a more disciplined approach with
emphasis now maintaining medium- to long-term production rates rather than
focussing on meeting short-term targets. With regard to the recent instability
issues, Centamin has outlined a dual-pronged plan of attack to unload the hazard
by mining from the top down and dewatering the area using boreholes to lower
the water table. Centamin has also made the decision to hire a contract miner to
undertake a 120Mt stripping campaign at Sukari that will focus on the eastern pit
wall. This operation will be away from the main mining activities and use its own
waste dump, thereby keeping Centamin's own equipment and operators free to
continue production work, providing consistency in Sukari's output.

Pleasure Mark,
I am as disappointed as everyone else at the past performance of Pardey and various short stayers in senior management, possibly Pardey and other Sukari senior management weren't really rumbled by the board because Jersey is so far away and to a large extent the board understandably relied on Pardey's's version of events rather than the reality.
It seems that there were also some senior management appointments that weren't working in the best interest of Centamin, thankfully these people have now gone!
I do wonder about how experienced in mining methods some of the analysts were that were chosen attend site visits at Sukari in the past. possibly they were only shown carefully prepared area's, or perhaps they didn't have the technical experience and training to reorganise that all was not well and so didn't ask the right questions.
I have a mining analyst in mind whom Pardey broke off dialogue with in 2016, but the new management regime have restored dialogue with, so who knows perhaps this analyst will be invited to visit Sukari in the future providing their other commitments permits.
So I am very hopeful that Martin Horgan and his team will turn things around and Centamin will actually be able to deliver on its promises at last!, lets hope we hear some encouraging news on progress made very soon!

Restoring Sukari's 'tier 1' status should comfortably deliver 25% growth & >20% cost reduction!
The poor performance at Sukari over the past 3 years is predominantly due to operational missteps on the part of previous management!
However the proposed changes over the past 12m and the recent life of mine review provided
much-needed detail on the pathway back to sustained production of ~500koz (+25%
vs 2021).
Unfortunately for share holders it will take time for new manegment to establish an operational
track record; but keep in mind the issues at Sukari are transitory (not structural) and this tier 1 ore body is set to deliver significantly better financial results in the future.
The exploration portfolio offers significant additional volume growth potential
CEY has 12Moz of gold in resource split between its brownfield Egyptian tenements
and greenfield in West Africa.
Recent issues have highlighted the vulnerability of a single asset portfolio and this has accelerated Centamin's intention to start up another asset, bearing in mind that Centamin is only interested in open-pit projects with a grade >2g/t and an 8-to 10-year mine life.
Also either organic or inorganic growth can provide important asset/ geographical diversification and this would drive a re-rating!

Opinion of a well informed acquaintance of mine, who may not exist of course (re Mr Zambian)

Thank you Awax,
Don't forget to give these people a like on youtube, they deserve it for exposing what so many are ignorant of.

If you haven't already done so then watch the web presentation below it explains some the reasons why gold wont rise until the BIS, FED, the bank cartel & central banks allow it to.
https://kinesis.money/webinars/

Our politicians and the big banks are also taking taking advantage of the Covid pandemic to defer the implementation of the final stages of Basil 3 , the former so they can carry on printing money to fool the electorate and to try to cover up years of failed political and monetary policies and the latter to try to get out of the hole they are in due to the bad market trading practices that have left some bank trading sections over exposed to short paper positions. (Scotia Bank and others)
https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/w-024-7065?transitionType=Default&contextData=(sc.Default)&firstPage=true

Frustrating , but unfortunately this demonstrates just what a farce is the claim that the markets are transparent and free of any manipulation , true they are regulated of a fashion,but in reality by those that are running the system for their own ends, the house always wins!

Some interesting points from a train acquaintance
Dividend Policy
Since 2014 Centamin has paid a regular dividend to its shareholders, according to
its dividend policy, and has been able to maintain these payments due to its strong
balance sheet.
The current dividend policy pays out a minimum of 30% of Sukari net cash flow after government profit share as a dividend, while maintaining a minimum $250M cash balance. Once growth capex (currently West African exploration and 2021 projects at Sukari) has been accounted for, any excess cash is then returned to shareholders at the board's discretion. With net cash currently above the $250m threshold, looking forward we assume dividends are broadly in line with FCF and, indeed, Centamin has outlined its intention to distribute a
minimum dividend of US$105M in FY21, subject to approval.
In the event that Centamin progresses with one of its exploration options in West
Africa or via M&A, it has indicated that initial funding would come from cash on
hand (1H20 $320m).
However if Centamin were to develop a medium-sized mine (>$500m capex), we would expect the dividend to decline to the 30% minimum net cashflow from Sukari (after government profit share). Whilst this would detract from what we believe is an attractive dividend yield vs gold peer,; assuming the potential growth projects have robust economics, we believe lower dividends but additional volume growth and, most importantly, assets/geographical
diversification would be a net positive for the investment case.
At spot commodity prices we project a 2021 dividend yield of ~5%. A $100/oz
change in the gold price impacts Centamin's dividend yield by ~1%, therefore at
UBSe base case of $2,100/oz we estimate a 2021 dividend yield of ~8%.
Earnings sensitivities
So an estimate on a US$100/oz change in the gold price would impact 2021e EBITDA by ~US$40M (~15%),
2021e FCF by ~US$20M
(>110%) and NPV by US$0.20/sh (12%)

Hi Mr Gnome,
Well it seems that once again the USA has deposed a dictator they didn't like and made things far worse by creating a power vacuum in the region!

https://theecologist.org/2016/mar/14/why-qaddafi-had-go-african-gold-oil-and-challenge-monetary-imperialism

Agreed Cowichan!
I have sent a couple of tweets to Centamin stating share holders need to be updated on these projects and in Egypt we need progress and production, not excuses !
Also stated that the board must be aware that Youssef isn't up to running Sukari properly and its time to appoint a suitably qualified Sukari general manager

Autonomy, that has usually been the case, although in this instance other forces (BIS ,FED, Central Banks) are at work to make sure that gold stays down, watch the video presentation I posted yesterday on the First weeks trading of 2021.
Things are getting so dire now that those running the market don't try to conceal what they are about, because the have to try to get things in better shape before the final part of Basil 3 becomes mandatory law.
The LBME a complicit partner in the manipulation of the POG cartel has been desperately lobbying to be exempted from the new Basil 3 regulations because it it will have to actually supply real bullion on demand rather than paying clients a premium to accept paper settlements.

'Clumsy' the bloke is an utter liability, they need to find him something else to do !

Yes Rebess, our trust has been broken now so many times over the years it's hardly surprising long term holders are suspicious.
If the El Raghy brothers had been as competent at managing the open and underground pit as they have been at selling their shares just before yet another cut in production is announced then things might be quite different now!
Over the years the El Raghys have crowed about how they have the best people, that Sukari is the best site and how the guidance will be increasing year on year and yet the reality is a mine that has been allowed to degenerate to an near unworkable state through mismanagement,incompetence, complacency or intention.
Recent event certainly make it seem as though they have had the share holders legs up!
Ironic really when considering the outstanding court case is based around the idea that foreign investors are taking advantage of Eygpt, it seems that exactly the opposite is the case where Centamin share holders are concerned.
So what's the excuse going to be this time if bad news is released I wonder?
Just hope that Martin Horgan is allowed to do what is needed to sort things out and that it the mine is able too function as it should before too many years have elapsed!

Rebess, Centamin need to be promoting the positive things that are taking place at the moment to rebuild confidence in the company, unfortunately Youssef's uncontrolled and ill considered press statements are having quite the opposite effect.
Centamin need to find him another job, or perhaps suggest he take a back seat ,a very long way back from Sukari, the bloke is a liability in his present role!

The laptop wont be there Mr Zambianminer, it will have been picked out by the official tip "Tatters" and sold onto someone who may have got it working again or broken it up for parts, probably deep cleaned the old hard drive or hey chucked it and replaced it with another.
Perhaps they found the bit coins, if they knew what they were, if they did, would they tell, I doubt it, but possibly the HD has been dumped elsewhere?
But lets say it did by slim chance it ended up in the main landfill site, if it did it may well have been around the tracks of a Cat 955 dozer or had the blade of a levelling bucket through it, not to mention being subjected to burning and heat.
These type of tips generate huge amounts of heat below the surface and quite often burn as all the different materials and substances break down.
In the late sixties my father a licenced scarp metal dealer started another business(this was the forerunner of the big bins of today) using tractors and trailers to dispose of industrial and factory waste which was taken to landfill sites.
So to cut down on journey time and reduce wear and tear on the newer tractors from going over he tip they would change their full trailers to empty ones at the tip entrance where they would be picked up by a tractor fitted with special off road tracks to be taken and emptied.
In those days none of the waste was sorted, just buried, so during summer holidays my mate and I would earn some pocket money by working for my father at the tip helping the chap emptying the full trailers and in between my mate and I would "Tatt" on the tip filling our sacks up as the day went on with all manner of items that we would later weigh in as scrap or sell at the junk shop.
My mate and I were not alone tatting, there were many other kids and adults doing it, I suppose it was recycling in its early stages!
Quite rightly nowadays none of what we were doing and certainly not by those so young would be allowed, but I regard it as part of my education in the university of life.

Local authority tips and landfill sites have on-site operatives that ensure that most waste items are sorted prior to any actual landfill, the the type of staff, especially the sub contractors are eagle eyed for anything that may have some value, some of the staff employed by the sub contractors are low paid and so they supplement their income by constantly searching through the waste for things that may have some value, something like a laptop would likely have been picked out and sold on on either for spares or even repair.
So whilst the laptop might still be there, I very much doubt it!

The First Weeks Trading webinar explains the manipulation by the BIS and the cartel so that shorts can be closed and physical gold picked up at a discount prior to a predicted rise in the POG.
There are also real concerns over the future viability of Scotia Bank as it is now stuck with rather too many short potions !

https://kinesis.money/webinars/
In the first instalment of gold and silver market analysis of the New Year, Andrew Maguire highlights the important stair steps and anticipated prices for gold and silver over the next two quarters, and breaks down the impact of official intervention on the first week’s trading of 2021.

The precious metals expert answers some of your questions, addresses the concerns around the supposed bearish nature of the latest COT report and explores the diverging market influence of strong physical demand and new US dollar strength.

I think the difference is that Rio Tinto is of gargantuan proportions in comparison and so although the implications and costs of this mess are sizeable and serious, the effects on Rio Tinto overall will be negligible and the market will take it in its stride, not least because Rio Tinto will have its PR department on the case.
In comparison Centamin is a minnow Company dependant upon a single source mine where bad mining practice has been allowed to carry over the years creating so much uncleared waste the open pit is almost unable to function safely or produce the promised guidance and a totally inept general mine manager making damaging PR statements to the Egyptian media!!

However, Al-Rajhi told Masrawy that his company has not yet been notified of the sites where the drilling operations will be carried out.
Egypt had signed an agreement with Centamin, an Australian company, to explore for gold at the Sukari mine, which is a huge gold mine located in the Red Sea Governorate, and is among the 10 largest gold mines in the world.

They need to put out some better PR on this .

Here is the article.

Related topics
CNBC: The quality of the gold from the Sukkari mine has become poor
Centamin expects to produce 420,000 ounces of gold at the Sukari mine in Egypt in 2015
Centamin expects to produce 420,000 ounces of gold at the Sukari mine in Egypt during 2015
The development of gold production in Sukari mine since the beginning of 2020 and expectations of its decline (interactive shovel)
Centamin expects to produce 420,000 ounces of gold at the Sukari mine in Egypt in 2015
Centamin aims to produce 430,000 ounces of gold from the Sukari mine in 2021
Nermin Abraham will be published in Masrawy 01-12-2021
Centamin, which is responsible for managing the Sukari mine for gold ore mining, expects the mine's gold production to decline this year by between 4.9% and 11.6%, compared to production in 2020.
Eng. Yousef Al-Rajhi, General Manager of Centamin Egypt and Managing Director of Al-Sukkari Gold Mines Company, revealed to Masrawy that the target production of raw gold from the Sukari mine during 2021 has decreased to between 400 and 430 thousand ounces (an ounce).
Al-Rajhi told Masrawy that the total production of the mine reached 452.3 thousand ounces (an ounce) during 2020, compared to 480 production.
5 thousand ounces in 2019, a decrease of 5.9%.
The Centamin Company announced last October that it expects gold production from the mine to decline during the fourth quarter to 70 thousand ounces compared to about 120 thousand ounces (preliminary estimates) in the third quarter of the same year, and compared to about 148.4 thousand ounces during the same period of the year. the past.
The company returned its expectations, according to a previous statement, to its decision to immediately postpone the surface mining operations in one of the mine areas after monitoring movement in the aforementioned area of ??the fourth phase of the Western Wall, which may threaten the security and safety of workers in the event that mining continues.
The company said postponing mining in this area is a precautionary measure to protect the health and safety of the workforce and the potential for diabetes in the long term.
According to what Youssef Al-Rajhi told Masrawy, Sukkari mine operates 24 hours a day, despite the Corona crisis, and production was not affected at all by Corona, whether in the first or second wave.
Al-Rajhi stressed that the company has taken a structured approach that includes a set of precautionary measures to prevent the emerging corona virus, whereby periodic checks are made on workers by conducting a "pcr" analysis, taking into account the current crisis management plan, business continuity plan, and emergency response measures to ensure worker safety. .
Centamin is among 11 foreign and Egyptian companies that were announced to win last November in the first bid put forward by the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources to explore for gold during the year 2020.
However, Al-Rajhi told Masrawy that his