Member Info for mrtibbles

Intersting article that explains how BOJ drove down the POG
If we cast our minds back to September 2012, we had the announcements of “QE3” by the Fed and the“Enhancement of Monetary Easing” by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The initial reaction of the gold price was positive,which was hardly surprising, although it turned out to be short-lived.
The subsequent collapse in gold has been counterintuitive, especially when the demand for physical gold bullion has remained strong as we show. It has also given the impression that the impact of monetary policies which are “loose”, to a degree which is unprecedented, is benign. It is much too early to reach that conclusion.
Major upward moves in the Nikkei and coincident weakness in the gold price can, in most cases, be closely tied to BoJ policy meetings for the past more than two years. This is especially true when BoJ meetings have included announcements of more aggressive monetary policy in support of “Abenomics.” We cover examples of such price moves which followed BoJ meetings in January 2013, April 2013, October 2013, May 2014, August 2014 and October 2014.
A number of unpleasant ironies are immediately apparent:
? It is helping to drive up equity prices in the country with the most rapidly expanding credit bubble and credit bubbles don’t tend to have happy endings;
? It is simultaneously driving down the price of the ultimate safe-haven asset and thereby silencing price signals relating to market and financial system risk;
? It appears to be a leveraged trade, obtaining the leverage via ultra-low rates in the repo market. The latter is a source of systemic risk which is known to regulators but remains unaddressed; and The logical conclusion is that risk across the world’s financial system is even more under-priced than market participants realise and many believe it is woefully under-priced.
We are in a global credit bubble in which the multi-trillion dollar expansion of central bank balance sheets, their imposition of near zero (or even negative) interest rates and control of entire yield curves (directly or indirectly)are at the cutting edge.
This has encouraged more and more speculation in risk assets which, in many cases, is being enhanced by leverage and without a commensurate sense of heightened risk.
Japan is the “cutting edge of the cutting edge” of this expanding global credit bubble!

Mr Zambianminer,
I can't disagree with anything in your statement, thank you for also making me aware of the Osborne's Black Rock link, amazing when considering what minor offences the employees working in the lower ranks of government get put on a disciplinary for. or even sacked!

Hi Sotolo,
You really are a "Job's Comforter " about Centamin , wonder why considering that you can't stay away from the share?
I think you are splitting hairs for some reason, lets face it even £1. 90 isn't that bad and is quite justifiable even now, but certainly as the true potential of Centamin and Sukari becomes more apparent to those that influence the market to some extent.
You need to go back further though, these were over a pound when the Egyptian revolutions were taking place, at now least the mine is able to share the profit, whilst in the past the profit was paying off the AISC, but that aside, you know reason for the rise in AISC (Pardey crap) , Martin Horgan explained the reasons and also that the AISC rise will be mitigated to some extent by cost savings and increasing production as time goes on
Recently a well informed acquaintance remarked that it was such a pity that Martin Horgan wasn't the Centamin CEO five years ago, because if he had been the share price would now be several times it's present level because for years due to internal indecisiveness and company politics Centamin had been operating with the hand brake fully applied!
All I am able to say is that if Martin Horgan achieves what he hopes to in the ongoing negotiations with EMRA then there is every possibility of some very positive effects on Centamin's future production, which will be good for Egypt, Centamin and share holders alike!
Also it is worth remembering that there are lots of other iron's in the fire at present in other area's outside of Eygpt!
Siko will no doubt be keeping us informed of these important Egyptian developments

Cont-
This is the reason that Len McCluskey, General Secretary of trade union Unite, has described Osborne’s 2015/16 asset sell-off as “the sale of the century”.
For the duration of Osborne’s time as Chancellor, he and David Cameron mistakenly pursued an ideological assault on the public services and the welfare state, while cutting life-critical funding to support people dealing with sickness, disability, old age, and in-work poverty due to poor labour conditions – the Cameron/Osbourne government slashed taxes to wealthy individuals and corporations whilst selling them the nation’s assets at bargain basement prices!
Not only did this mean the taxpayer losing out on the profits available from the sale, but also their cost of living rose exponentially as formerly non-profit public services become profit-making cash cows for private interests!

The legacy of George Osborne, a toxic one indeed and one of the main reasons our NHS was ill prepared to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic!

Bown's gold sale may have been unwise, but it pales into insignificance when compared to the cost of George Osbournes incompetence as UK Chancellor!

Whatever your view on Gordon Browns gold sale George Osborne's record must make the worst Chancellor in UK history!
When George Osborne launched his austerity programme in 2010, he promised short term pain, in return for long term economic stability – stating that the country’s deficit would be closed by 2015.
He failed, miserably!
George Osbournes years of crushing austerity made the UK’s current account deficit worse than it was in 2010, it is worse than during ANY period since records began in 1955. Furthermore, the Chancellor continued to miss his own targets on reducing the fiscal deficit (taxes versus spending), all while clocking up more debt in his first three years in parliament than even New Labour managed to in the previous 13!
he will also have sold off more public assets than any Chancellor in UK history – outperforming the most ruthless privateers of the Thatcher era.
George Osborne privatised £37.7bn of public assets since becoming Chancellor in 2010, and is scheduled to fire sold another £20bn by the end of 2016
To put this in some historical perspective, the combined privatisation of Margaret Thatcher’s most prominent chancellors, Geoffrey Howe (1979-1983) and Nigel Lawson (1983-9) amounted to £55.8bn (in today’s money) between them over a decade. Osborne sold £57.7bn in just six years with zero internal opposition.
Thatcher’s final Chancellor, John Major, sold a further £9bn of public assets. This means it is not only possible, but likely, that David Cameron will have privatised more public assets upon leaving office than any Prime Minister in UK history.
Since 2010, Cameron and Osborne’s fire sale has included:
Northern Rock bank, nationalised during the Financial Crisis, was sold to Virgin at a £400m loss in 2011
The profit-making Royal Mail was sold off at a £1bn loss to the taxpayer in 2014
Osborne sold off the first tranche of the government’s £45bn stake in RBS in August 2015 at a £1bn loss. 60% of the shares were purchased by hedge funds.
His final sale of RBS shares lost the taxpayer a staggering around £22bn.
£22bn lost from RBS shares could have payed for either:
103,000 nurses for 10 years (an annual starting wage of £21,388)
946 primary schools (an average cost of £3,700,000 each)
147,000 affordable homes (an average cost of £150,000 each)
40 state-of-the-art hospitals (based on the £545,000,000 cost of the new Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Birmingham)

CDSDI 1962
https://www.dividendmax.com/united-kingdom/london-stock-exchange/mining/centamin-di/dividends
https://www.centamin.com/investors/shares-dividends/dividend-information/

Hope this helps as a starting point!

Also thanks to Lukee for the info!

Hi Lynny,
Around a decade or so ago I was persuaded by a very persistent director of Logic Investments to open an advisory CFD trading account and to transfer to them a substantial part of my share portfolio to provide a margin for leveraged CFD trading.
Cutting a long story short Darren of Logic investments was only interested in earning trading commission by getting me to trade as many times as he could in any 24 hr period.
Logic investments clients funds were used via a link to the live trading platform of Saxo bank and to be able to witness in real time the rising of leverage and trading charges with the falling value of your portfolio faster than it can can be sold to try and end up square and even then going into the red for many thousands of pounds on a Monday morning open up is something I would never want to experience again, or ever wish on anyone else.
In order to free myself again I took the hit paid off the debts and closed the Logic /Saxo accounts.
After this sorry episode I went back to rebuilding my depleted equity portfolio by conventional share trading and investing, but certainly never ever shorting, that in my view is unethical .
After my disastrous experience with advisory CFD trading I felt I would like try and help other private investors avoid some of my mistakes by getting involved in some investment forums.
After visiting and seeing what goes on in the majority of forums I happened to come across this one which seemed to be inhabited by more likeable, more helpful and well informed people.
It was always my intention to help make this forum more like a friends table in the local where the discussion is open ended and informative on wide range of subjects, because most are all relevant at some time in one way or another.
So if I have helped you and others in some small way then I am delighted!

Tibbs

Thank you Razor's!

Must remember not to watch Boris Bullsh*t when he makes his public address about this latest wonderful achievement (not!)

As usual Cowichan finds some interesting info!

Thank you Siko for the interpretation!

Hi,

Pardey turned out to be a devious stinker who misled the share holders for many years over future guidance and the state of the Sukari open pit, I find it hard to accept that Josef and Youssef were not aware of the way that waste clearing wasn't being carried out in order to concentrate on the high grades to bump up the figures!
Pardey denied all knowledge of the Kees Dekker 2016 report findings on the telephone just after the 2018 mess up and when I questioned Pardey about the failure to have a supply of essential spare parts on site for the sole LHDR he cut me off!
There are copies of the correspondence between Kees Dekker & Pardey where Pardey disputes the findings in the 2016 Kees reports, but when asked for the information to back up his claims of inaccuracy he ended the dialogue and totally ignored all future correspondence from Kees.
At least we now have a CEO Martin Horgan who appears to want to do he job properly and tell the truth to share holders, unfortunately yet again the share holders have to take a hit and wait for the recovery!
You may recall in the past before stage 4 was completed, before any profit share or divi the Cey share price hit £2.00, so when considering that even despite some production guidance cut the mine is producing more than it was at that time and the high POG and even allowing for the profit share the Cey share price should be higher than it is being held at now.
I have often thought of you in the past when I have taken a G&T or two with my well informed acquaintance in one of the pubs like The Viaduct Tavern or The Trading House as there are often workers from the City taking an after work drink.
Don't let nurse Rachet grind you down , carry on on enjoying a few dram's, after all what's the point in life if you can't have a bit of what you enjoy now and then!
Best Wishes Market!

Tibbs

Hi Viable,
I had a look back and this official explanation from Sept 2019 may be of some help to you.
From Centamin-
With regards to index inclusion, Centamin (through our LSE and TSX listings) is a constituent of greater than 90 global primary indices, including NYSE ARCA Gold index, GDX Index and GDXJ Index which are three of the largest global gold indices, and countless secondary/buy-side indices (ie. Blackrock, Standard Life, Dimensional, Legal & General, Barclays).
Passive investment (ie. index funds, algorithms, etc) represent an important and valued part of our shareholder base. However, we believe liquidity and constructive shareholder engagement are important share price drivers and thus, strategically, Centamin targets actively managed investment (emerging market, specialist, generalist, long/short and/or income funds, etc and retail investors), as opposed to passives, which tend to reduce liquidity and limit shareholder engagement due to being largely operated through computer systems. Over the last 12months Centamin have successfully increased the actively managed investment, within the top 20 shareholders, by 50%, enabling constructive engagement with a larger part of our investor base. During this same timeframe, Centamin’s liquidity has also increased by c.30%, making the shares more attractive to short and long term investors in these very challenging markets.
It is important to also remember that our shares are fully fungible between both our London and Toronto listings. Due to this fact, as with many other dual listed companies, the trading volumes tend to migrate towards the most liquid/ traded exchange. In the instance of Centamin, that is London/LSE.
Greater than 90% of our global shareholders hold the LSE shares.

Tibbs

Viable,
If I recall correctly I believe the TSX trading volumes tend to be much lower, although to be fair Cowichan and Marmot may be able to provide a more accurate idea of the influence the TSX has on the Cey share price.
A year or so ago Cowichan put a great deal of personal effort into trying to get Centamin to consider changing the way the company is listed on the TSX in order to give it a greater prominence and make more Canadian and other TSX investors aware of the potential of the company.
Cowichan did appeal on this forum for other share holders to support his request in writing to Centamin, but unfortunately a very small number actually took the trouble to put pen to paper as it were!
It's useful to be able to vent off on forums at times, but it needs a concerted effort by a number of share holders in writing to the company to stand a chance of achieving the desired effect!

Over to Cowichan

The original post dealt with the Brexit deal and so my post was relevant.
I appreciate that those who haven't been members of the forum for as long as some of us may not be familiar with the way that members have always discussed and debated all manner of subjects, this helped to keep members strong through some really trying times.
Others may do as they wish and I and will continue as I have always done.

New rules to speed drone adoption
Federal officials have launched new drone rules that could help open the skies for widespread commercial deliveries, allowing operators to fly small drones over people and at night under certain conditions. The regulations will give the FAA and law enforcement a handle on what's actually flying around in the skies, requiring remote identification technology to pinpoint them from the ground.

Meet the "Remote ID" standard: The new rules eliminate requirements that drones be connected to the internet to transmit location data, but they must broadcast remote ID messages via radio frequency broadcast (meaning they can be used in areas without internet access). Drone manufacturers will have 18 months to begin producing drones with Remote ID, and operators will have an additional year to provide Remote ID.

Other rules: For at-night operations, drones must be equipped with anti-collision lights that can been see for three miles. They must also "not cause injury to a human being that is equivalent to or greater than the severity of injury caused by a transfer of 25 foot-pounds of kinetic energy upon impact from a rigid object" and "does not contain any exposed rotating parts that could lacerate human skin upon impact with a human being."

Quote from FAA Administrator Steve Dickson: "The new rules make way for the further integration of drones into our airspace by addressing safety and security concerns. They get us closer to the day when we will more routinely see drone operations such as the delivery of packages."

Stats: Drones represent the fastest-growing segment in the entire transportation sector, with currently over 1.7 million drone registrations and 203,000 FAA-certificated remote pilots.

Some history: UPS (NYSE:UPS) won the government's first full approval to operate a drone delivery airline back in October 2019, while Alphabet's (GOOG, GOOGL) Wing became the first company to get certification for a single-pilot drone operation. This past summer, the FAA granted Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) permission for delivery trials, while Walmart (NYSE:WMT) jumped into the drone delivery race in September.

All aboard the $2,000 stimulus bandwagon?
The U.S. House of Representatives just passed a bill called the CASH Act of 2020 that would increase the amount of second stimulus checks from $600 to $2,000 after a call from President Trump to increase the payments. That puts him and Congressional Democrats on the same side of an issue, though it remains to be seen if Republicans in the Senate will follow suit. Strange times indeed.

More about the bill: The CASH Act would also boost the amount awarded for each dependent to $2,000 (e.g. a family of four would get an $8,000 second stimulus check instead of a $2,400 payment). It would also include an additional amount for older children, elderly parents that have moved in, or anyone else that one supports and can claim as a dependent on upcoming tax returns. Moreover, the legislation retroactively amends the law authorizing the first round of stimulus checks (under the CARES Act) so that all dependents would qualify for the extra $500 payments allowed for children age 16 and younger.

FAQ: Is the stimulus check taxable income and how will it effect my tax return? The direct payments will not factor into income-tax liability, and won't influence, offset or factor into the size of your refund.

What will Senate Republicans do? The situation is fluid, so stay tuned for imminent developments. So far, there are some Republican senators who back higher stimulus checks like Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), while lawmakers could also be pressured by constituents who are struggling financially. President Trump is also behind the effort, which may be enough to trigger support for larger payments.

The options: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell hasn’t said whether the Senate would take up the House bill, make an attempt to vote on a different one that could increase direct payments or simply ignore the legislation. The silence could be interpreted as a lack of support for the House bill due to the price tag of the increased payments, which would cost $464B, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation.

29th Dec 2020
More stock records seem to be in store for today, with futures ahead by 0.5%, after the signing of a COVID relief bill that lifted reopening plays like cruise lines, airlines and casinos. Megacaps led the major averages on Monday, while nine of the 11 S&P sectors ended in the green amid continuing support for the Santa Claus rally.

"The market right now is clearly foaming at the mouth," said Charlie McElligott, a market analyst with Nomura Securities, though the rapid gains seen this year are dividing some investors on how to proceed in 2021. The S&P 500 is up 15.6% for the year and the Dow has advanced 6.5%, while the Nasdaq has soared more than 43% despite the pandemic.

The bears: Ominous parallels have been made between this market and the internet bubble, and a correction could at least be in the cards. Valuations are also stretched beyond memory with margin debt at records, while traditional stock metrics and fundamentals have gone out the window. Runaway shares for recent IPOs like DoorDash (NYSE:DASH), Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) and Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) could additionally cause some alarm, especially when the companies aren't profitable and CEOs express bewilderment over their stock prices.

The bulls: Assurance from the Fed that it will continue easy money policies, keeping markets stable and interest rates low. Retails investors, who have piled into the market this year, also seem to be a driving force for the market's upward trajectory. The contentious presidential election is now over and a national vaccine rollout further signals the start of an eventual return to normal.

Does the old Warren Buffett maxim still hold true? "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

Hi Razor's ,
As always thank you for your update,
Strange to be celebrating that all this time and public money has been wasted on getting a much worse trade deal than the one the UK already enjoyed.
True Boris , Farage , Jacob Rees Mogg, Gove and all the other cabinet parasites have done very well out of selling the Bexit myth to the people, but in reality in 2021 the people will have lost so much including their right to unfettered travel or even to live Europe to become prisoners of a "Little Britain" governed by a dictatorial and inept cabinet of greedy clowns.
Sad sad 2021!

Not a bother Viable, you are very welcome , please don't hold back on any questions just because I have been in Centamin a long time, I won't be offended and if I can't help in some way then no doubt one of the other long term members may well be able to provide the information.
As you may have concluded the journey with Centamin has not been without it's rough patches to say the least, so much of the usual trading chat, opinions , charts and expert predictions more often than not prove to be as useful as a chocolate teapot when it comes to Centamin, it really is a contrarian share.

Tibbs

Viable, this is old information so some things may have changed, however it may be of interest to you as you are invested in both companies.
Offshore Leaks
https://www.imd.org/research-knowledge/articles/the-four-tiers-of-conflict-of-interest-faced-by-board-directors/
https://offshoreleaks.icij.org/nodes/82006106
https://twitter.com/CapitalDrilling/status/1021939160330817536
Both the Cey COO Josef and Youssef El-Raghy general manger & director of Sukari are both listed as directors of Capital Drilling who provide all over ground drilling at Sukari.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/207814/capital-drilling-lands-contract-renewal-for-centamins-sukari-mine-207814.htmlSun 21:06

It appears that Capital Drilling forms strategic partnerships with companies, which includes drilling for equity for a range of companies, not an uncommon practice in the drilling industry
Possibly It may have been a good commercial sense for Centamin at the time to help Capital become established in a shorter time frame.
Capital has rapidly expanded into West Africa, including Burkina Faso and Cote D’Ivoire and it may be just coincidence that Centamin is also expanding operations in the same region.
http://www.capdrill.com/about-us/strategy

Hi Sotolo,
"Many a true word spoken in jest!"
How many what turned out to false promises did Pardey make over the the years whilst knowingly cutting corners by failing to clear away the rubbish and all the while creating pit walls with the a potential to bring Sukari production crashing down!
Pardey is a mining professional who chose not to carry out his duties in a professional manner, but chose instead to weave a web of deceit to the share holders whilst Josef took his profit and a back seat whilst looking for opportunities elsewhere.
The present situation seems to prove that the analysts that visited Sukari in the past on several occasions were possibly not that well experienced in mining techniques, or weren't shown every thing, or failed to look in the right places, or even ask the right questions, if they had then surely the failure to clear away waste materials or the steepness of the open pit walls would have been questioned before .
I realise of course that some analysts may have accepted what they were being told was the truth just as we share holders have done.
Only fours months or so ago I recall posting some highlights of analysts reports predicting £2.90,but then they had possibly accepted what hey were old about Sukari in good faith and not thought to question why the many years build up of waste hadn't been cleared up.
I suppose we must take some solace in that there is now a CEO in post who gives every indication of intending to do things properly and to be more honest about the facts of the situation.
2020 has been a depressing and disappointing year and 2021 looks to be no better, most probably much worse in many respects, certainly after the mess our present deceitful UK government has created which unfortunately may well take many decades to rectify to some extent, fortunately with luck Sukari will be sorted out far sooner in comparison !