Member Info for mrmoagi

The point here being - and it is not a subtle or not so subtle deramp or ramp of Tlou is - there is an endless array of energy and feedstock and power generation opportunities in Southern Africa, and no doubt the rest of the world, which Tlou is participating in and also in direct competition with.
Faced with this plethora of investment opportunities, is starting small and building steady eddy a good strategy (it might be) or should one shoot for the stars knowing that you will land somewhere in between that better strategy. Maybe both will work; maybe neither will work; a Ministey responsible for Energy Security releasing an IRP saying 10MW of new CBM feedstock for power generation in 5 years time does not scream that they are determined to fast track CBM imo.
And Tony and Tlou shareholders - can we all survive the slowness until then. Macro issues - they need to be considered. Tlou announcements have been exceptional about presenting the micro issues and how things should proceed - save that they ignored that the people in charge of timelines were never mentioned in the announcements.
And my comments are formulated using the benefit of hindsight for sure. Yes there were some great announcements, and I was as excited as everyone at the time. And after that, we all shared the disappointment of slow death by a thousand cuts....
But that is history and now there definitely is momentum in Botswana, and I very much hope (for the sake of my Mark-to-market) momentum for CBM.
What I am looking for next is - some change in emphasis in the narrative coming from company announcements. If that remains all hippy hippy shake shake, then sadly my optimism will be short lived.

And another:

The key to unlocking value of Kabanga Nickel and enabling the full beneficiation of new era metals in Tanzania itself is an environment-friendly hydrometallurgy process that eliminates smelting and thus slashes the need for electricity.

The Kabanga Nickel Hydromet process takes ore to refined metals at lower capital and operating costs cutting carbon dioxide (CO2) emission by 80% and eliminating sulphur dioxide (SO2) emission altogether.

Another:

South Africa plans to launch three procurement rounds for 6 800 MW of renewable energy over the next year, as well as a combined 5 000 MW of new coal, gas and storage, a presentation by the governing African National Congress (ANC) showed.

By way of example:

Jodi Power Limited rents out, operates and maintains a fleet of containerised 1MW and 2MW diesel generator sets to African mines and other large consumers for short to medium term periods.

Continued: Fly ash works very similar to natural pozzolans and since the mid-20th Century has largely replaced natural pozzolans in the United States because of its availability and very low cost. However, market dynamics are changing the quality and availability of fly ash. As a result, natural pozzolans are becoming more common again.

In designing a concrete mix, many different properties must be considered and balanced. The most basic property is compressive strength. Concrete compressive strength is generally a function of the cement characteristics, water to cement ratio (w/c) and properties of the aggregate. Increasing the amount of cement and/or reducing the amount of water for a given set of materials generally increases the compressive strength. Fly ash pozzolans help reduce w/c ratio because of their spherical bead shape.

There are many more properties of concrete which can become important in certain environments and structural applications, including: alkali-silica reactivity (ASR), efflorescence, freeze/thaw resistance, lightweight/heavy weight, sulfate resistance, low heat of hydration (in mass concrete), and shrinkage. Engineers design the concrete mix to provide the best characteristics for the lowest cost. Pozzolans can improve concrete performance in many of these areas by reacting with unwanted compounds and making the concrete stronger, less permeable, or more dense; resist cracking; or by delaying the chemical reactions to reduce heat.

Concrete in its most basic form is paste (cement and water) and aggregates (rock and sand) which is plastic and malleable when newly mixed and strong and durable when hardened. Many people interchange the words “cement” and “concrete”. Technically, this is like interchanging the words “flour” and “cake”.
he cement is a powder that reacts with water to form the glue (calcium silicate hydrates or CSH) that binds everything together. Portland cement, the primary portion of paste in modern concrete, is made by heating limestone and other minerals to very high temperatures, then grinding the mix into a fine powder. Unfortunately, this high heat reaction produces CO2, both as a result of burning the fuel for heating and the chemical reactions in the limestone. Although it varies from cement plant to cement plant, every ton of cement creates about a ton of CO2 emissions. It has been estimated that 5% -8% of the man-made global CO2 emissions are from Portland cement manufacturing. Portland cement is also the most expensive component in concrete.
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Modern concrete also contains Supplementary Cementitious Materials (SCM) to improve its properties and reduce cost. The most widely used SCMs function as a pozzolan. When water and Portland cement react, calcium hydroxide (CaOH) is formed as a byproduct that is detrimental to concrete strength and permeability. Pozzolans react with the byproduct to form more CSH glue. The two most common pozzolan SCMs are fly ash and ground granulated Blast Furnace **** (GGBFS), also called **** cement. Fly ash is produced by the air pollution control systems from coal burning power plants. Fly ash often replaces some of the Portland cement and improves the workability and permeability of the concrete without a significant loss of strength. **** Cement is a nonmetallic byproduct developed during iron production in a blast furnace. When rapidly chilled by quenching, it changes into a glassy particle. When ground into a fine powder, these particles, like fly ash react with the CaOH to form more CSH or “glue”. Other, more expensive SCMs include silica fume and meta-kaolin. Because of the relatively high costs, these products are typically used only in very special mixes in which high early strength or very low permeability is required.

The purpose of message boards is to discuss the company. In doing that, the science I am guided by my research, some of which I have shared. We probably all have a good sense of the micro detail of Tlou; the macro story is what has held them back these past few years. Masisi is finally getting his hands around the macro environment in Botswana, which is promising I believe.
These are the things I like to talk about and share. It may be interesting for everyone, no problem. I do not, will not, get involved in is justifying my views or size of my positions with fellow posters. Whizzer, there is surely a higher purpose here for you than sack the board sentiment or arguing with fellow posters because you take issue with what they post.
Mr Smith, since you clearly are an elderly person, many here know the history of Tlou. You dogged admiration of the CEO is admiral, but as all quality investment managers will warn, past success will not guarantee future success. Just ask Neil Woodford.

I expect Masisi investment opportunities are more likely to reference the Coal to Liquids PPP, the hoped for reopening of BCL mine and smelter, opportunities for precious metals exploration and production, the 5 GW solar farm partnering with Namibia being structured by Power Africa, additional coal projects (although likely he won’t want to speak directly about those). CBM may get a mention but that will likely be best we can hope for, given the IRP is for a Ron Weasly 10MW by 2025.

By the way, headlines are easy to find about Southern Africa opportunities; just sign up for the daily Creamer newsfeed. However then be prepared for an endless flow of real and wannabe projects. One thing that is real however is the power generation space in Africa is a massive market and investment opportunity. Can Tlou become a participant is their challenge.

Product trials with cement companies takes weeks to months; not days to weeks. They need to trial in different sample composition, length of time to set, etc. And just because Sunshine sent the batches, that doesn’t mean the trials started shortly thereafter.... especially as this was getting towards December and year end period. Hence it wouldn’t surprise me one little bit if the trials were only just starting in January.
Perlite though should be an easy one for Customer Acceptance Testing trials.

Apologies, I meant to say I don’t know anything about Sekaname other than they and Tlou are the 2 CBM players in Botswana and both are preferred bidders for the 100mw tender. But then they were also the only 2 invited to tender. I assume there would be merry hell to pay if anyone else now got introduced into the first CBM mix being developed by Govt.
My biggest anxiety for Tlou isn’t Sekaname. If CBM gets going, they should both do ok assuming they can deliver on their tenders - to be awarded a preferred bidder must surely mean they submitted something other than a sheet of blank paper with their name at the top.
But look around Southern Africa. There are simply massive LNG gas projects being financed regularly in Mozambique and a rehaul of S African power plants and their feedstock. Botswana has not been energy self-sufficient probably ever; and dependent largely on Eskom but also probably needing to secure alternate supplies in the short term. How long is it going to take Botswana to get Morupule working (if ever), get new coal plants built, get solar farms approved built and supplying into the grid. Per the recent IRP20-40, about the same time as they are planning for a small amount of CBM power generation. I have a concern that the Govt are simply paying lip service to CBM - 10MW by 2025 is pathetic really - and these other more understood sources of power generation will overtake CBM eventually.
But then again, I am not disputing the huge gas resource there. But just because it is there doesn’t mean it is going to get to market. Something of a step change is needed from Govt towards CBM - letting it bumble along with small targets for next 5 years is a great concern.

My personal view is that Tlou and Sekaname are fighting a lost cause in pursuing CBM longer term. I don’t know how many years they have been pursuing their dream and whilst it appears at the moment their is more light on their respective horizons than for some time, ultimately coal resource is Govt owned who will push that source. Once solar and PV gain momentum, that will accelerate since that is where funding can be sourced. Gas and CBM will gradually peter out over time. Tlou might make a go of solar, but the risk is there CBM sinks an already leaky ship. I have no idea who or what Sekaname are, other than they are a local Botswana outfit.
But foreign listed companies with projects in Botswana are increasingly the vogue think, so if Tony has any ability to ride the bull wave, we should see higher prices. How much higher is the fun part.

Agree Myfirstmillion. Tlou continues to foster the confusion around the interim 2mw with BPC, which is entirely separate to the 2mw to 10MW submitted under the 100mw tender.
I continue to believe the interim 2mw will never happen because it won’t be relied upon by funders - the cost and capex for transmission line connection is simply too much for such a small and wishy washy award (from an insolvent and largely disorganised parastatal).
African Energy is busy negotiating with BPC for a connection agreement to the Bots transmission grid, and for a Use of System Agreement related to the use of Bots transmission grid. Part of their 300mw power project. Yet another listed company with big plans for power generation down there - they have been banging their heads against thick doors for quite some time. Others are making noise again.
Arguably if Tlou doesn’t get things moving soon and quickly, it will be a project so insignificant that funders will ignore due to real and serious alternatives close by.

This is little I agree with here - but that doesn’t make one right and one wrong.

The recent IRP 20-40 mentions 100Mw CBM
Power generation, which surely must be the original 100mw tender. That is a stand alone tender with 2 parties awarded Preferred Bidder status and who will go forward to negotiate the PPA with Ministry /BPC with negotiations coordinated by ALSF.

The interim 2mw is whatever it is - a favour, a throwaway, a distraction.... It is something between Tlou and BPC and details of timelines, pricing, term of supply have not been released. It would not surprise me if this interim contract was superceeded /overtaken by the outcome of the 100mw PPA. Only time will tell.
Why? Because Tlou will not be able, in my opinion, to raise the necessary funding to execute on the 100km poles and wires transmission line on that contract alone. It is therefore a distraction - but only time will tell on that.
What I genuinely do expect is that 2021 will be spent negotiating terms and details of commercial contracts. And since funding will only be secured based on that, little field work will be done in the interim.
This project is for those with time on their hands, years to wait, patience in abundance, and plenty of fund raisings ahead.

The 2mw is a short term contract negotiated directly between Tlou and BPC. I don’t know the term of the contract but I suspect it is relatively short since this contract is in essence a proof of concept. Remember TG said it was given to them as a favour for delaying so long on the 100mw tender. So I am not actually sure the interim 2mw contract can technically be called a PPA - just thinking aloud. I welcome being educated.
The 100mw tender is however a true sense PPA, to be negotiated by Govt, Ministry, BPC and the 2 IPPs. African Development Bank legal arm are appointed as Govt advisors to get this done - the RNS mentioned this would start soon. About bloody time I hear from the back rows.
What I don’t know - both Tlou and Sekaname were awarded Preferred Bidder status in 2019, and they are the 2 potential IPPs to win outright the 100mw or do they carve this up between them. This has never been made crystal clear by Tlou announcements or Tony interviews.
I assume since there is narrative about Govt behind CBM that both can share the 100mw. My point is more that much has been said and written in the past, creating confusion (for me at least) and if Govt and Ministry are truly mobilising now, then hopefully we will see clearer, more realistic release of information as time passes.
It is just a massive shame Tlou issued so many shares these past 3 years basically to pay Head Office salaries. Still, the cost and returns of delivering 10MW of power can be readily estimated; and financiers will assess the relative attractiveness of the opportunity. Tlou is starting to look attractive since it has a chance now - but it is still a punt. As my first post couple days ago - Govt needs to demonstrate how they are creating jobs for the local hard hit economy.

I have some limited knowledge of PPA contracts - they specify the amount of power the IPP is contracted to supply to the Offtaker. In this case, it will be BPC - who isn’t the most reliable and solvent client. The price will have to be commercial in order for Tlou to show the contract to potential project lenders, so it is naive to think significant funding will be agreed before the PPA itself is in near final form. This is why Tlou has been unable to secure funding - why they keep saying funding is almost arranged is concerning since either they are happy to be misleading or they are not very knowledgeable.
There is also parsimonious info about commerciality of Lesedi 3 and 4 flow rates. If the company keeps putting out incomplete or inconsistent info in its announcements, this again speaks to management and their desire to communicate clearly with the owners of the company. Let’s hope Tony has made this a New Year resolution.

While your post is sensible, your title is not. There is no shortage whatsoever of stock here. Despite you and the Twitter group trying to persuade otherwise.

Used to be invested here but got bored with the bipartisan views and squabbling, so found better ways to spend my time. Govt has 3 years left until next election and the pressure must be on them to show progress in creating jobs and improving the economy. Tough before covid; doubly tough after covid - but covid induced state of emergency has maybe given Govt a window of relative quiet to get their strategy better formulated. Khoemacau is a huge copper project; news is awaited on the new owners of BCL mine which will help the town of Sibeli-Phikwe re jobs; ReconAfrica news; Kavango Resources news; Power Metals progress and others now coming to the fore augers well for capital market activity increasingly focussed on Botswna at long last. Ride the wave. I fully expect TG and team will be licking their licks at the improving environment and prospects.
I will happily depart as quickly as I reappeared if folks start being disrespectful about other posters views. Life is too short - I have no desire to engage with Donald Duck types on message boards.