Member Info for mrmoagi

I believe this is the question to ask now - rather than get dragged yet again into the vortex of Whizzer complaining about the useless Board etc.

My view - assuming anyone is interested - the funding for Phase 1 and 2 is from project Lenders. Who are only going to lend when there is a PPA they can essentially bank with a lending institution. Yes I know a chunk of that is needed for the transmission line; but the transmission line could take a year (maybe more) to build to Serowe (I know, others think it is easier and will be quicker) but there might be significant upfront costs to be paid &/or whoever is going to do the work maybe wants to see a cash reserve amount available so that Tlou doesn’t run out of cash half way through. Not saying this is the case - just that it could be.
So whilst TG knows the PPA could take another 2 or 3 months or longer to conclude, he wants to get these first steps dealt with and get the transmission line part of the project moving now.
After all, connection to the grid is also a large part of the proof of concept that CBM works in Bots. And with connection to the grid all important for a number of reasons (not least of which, for TG to entertain selling the business), get on with that now given the PPA negotiation has started and presumably is progressing.

Mate, first up - don’t believe all that is written. Even you are not that stupid. Second up, if I bought all those shares of late, do you think I got most of them at 4p or closer to 2p....
Now, my advice to everyone is - try to make money here. Not hurl abuse and insults at fellow posters. But then, the Tlou clique are quite unique - you seem to need a common enemy to distract yawl from the bouncing around by Bots Govt and Tlou mgmt. I mean, it has to be somebody else’s fault rather than what stares us all in the face, and has been for 3 plus years. Some saw it sooner than others; some still refuse to see it; and some are just getting on and doing the best they can as the cards continue to be dealt.
Longer term here - we will all be fine. Just that the generational wealth accumulation some idiot mentioned somewhere is unlikely to match their lofty aspirations.
Come on MFM - move on lad.

Time for Tony to reappear on Proactive later today I imagine.

Good one MFM, you made me reach for the chuck bucket with that.

I guess a lot of these questions will be answered tomorrow then....

And yes, to have phrased the RNS in this way, and for the Book Build to end up not being successful would imo be an unmitigated disaster. Which I most assuredly do not expect to be the case here.

Like I posted earlier today - Tlou is a Strong Buy. Can’t help think of Gary Player today.

MFM - why do you believe /say the 100MW tender will be awarded to one of the Bidders? There is nothing to say (that I have read anywhere) only 1 will be awarded here.
And if CBM works for one of them, it can work for both of them, and many more thereafter. The gas is a valuable resource for Botswana that would in part help them break from their Energy dependence on SAfrica, so for me anyways, I fully expect both the Preferred Bidders to the 100MW tender to be awarded something.
I posted quite a few things here today, and much of it was tongue in cheek. But I being serious when I say here - the 100MW tender isn’t one v the other. There is plenty of room for both Tlou and Sekaname, as well as Strata-X and others that want to play in the ‘sand pit’.

Hahahahaha Mr Smith thinks someone doesn’t know what a joke is. Massively, absolutely massively entertaining.
This is the funniest afternoon evrrrrrrrrr!!

The punters are coming back. Progress is being made. Govt are getting things together. The 100MW PPA negotiations are progressing. Funding may be announced soon, as per recent company updates. Conversion of Orapa 90MW peaking plant to gas is on the cards. Load shedding across southern africa is set to remain and likely increase in the months ahead. Botswana is on the cusp of a new gas industry and Tlou is in the driving seat with a great management team who are well experienced.

It is Green for Go !!! Get on board !! Shares are tightly held so very little free float available. Don’t miss the boat this time around.

Tlou sees 10p quickly with some half decent news on progress of the PPA imo. The pieces are finally in place for some fun here.
However, imo again, this talk about Tlou getting the full 100 shillings is nonsense. But it doesn’t matter what my opinion is - the pump has been primed and I bought half of all the shares traded recently between 2p and 4p, so let her rip boys. Time to talk Tlou up. 10p in the blink of an eye. You know it makes sense. With some luck, some old friends will start reappearing here and it will be just like the good old days.
Mr Smith - best leave 2009 commentary where it was filed. Deep in the archives. There is a full decade and more since then; life has changed; the internet has changed; best you book yourself in for an Extreme Makeover. Time for new ideas; time for new energy; time for the new Govt to deliver for the people - they have less than 3 years of current term left; time to pull the finger out and show the local populace some new ideas thinking and job opportunities; time for Botswana’s star to start shining brighter; time for everyone to get excited about Tlou’s prospects (oh I already said that).

Part of an article on Why Africa. General interest only but I see an increasing number of these types of coverage expressing increasingly bullish investment sentiment. Politics in Botswana is what has hampered development there for the 2010-20 decade, where hopefully the pace of change now accelerates.

Continued:
A love for dark horses

The dark-horse in Southern-Africa is Namibia. Everybody loves to visit Namibia and with its wide-open spaces and stunning scenery, the country is a tourist dream. But it also has a strong agricultural sector, great infrastructure, and a decent port. President Hein Geingob of the ruling Swapo party regained the presidency in 2019, and although there are some murmurings amongst the youth, the politics in Namibia remain stable. Namibia’s other great asset is its mineral endowment. Diamond mining has always been the mainstay, with uranium and gold mining in a close second place. There are several early-stage gold exploration projects being carried out in Namibia, and a whole range of copper, graphite and rare earth’s projects. Canadian firm Gratomic plans to launch commercial operations at its Aukam graphite mine this year, while another Canadian company, Deep South Resources, is continuing exploration work at its Haib project and Trigon Metals is optimistic about their Kombat copper project after 2020 exploration boosted its resource base. Namibia is on a good wicket. The beauty about Namibia is its transparency. What you see is what you get in Namibia, and there are no unknowns, unlike in Zambia, which is Southern Africa’s big unknown.

Lungu faces backlash.

While Zambia’s finances are crumbling, there are fears that the presidential elections might turn into a bloodbath. If the incumbent President Edgar Lungu wins against Hakainde Hichilema, he faces possible legal action. The Law association of Zambia and other civil movements in the country plans to challenge his candidacy. According to the opposition, he will rule for a third term if he wins. Lungu came to power in 2015 during the reign of Michael Sata, who died in office while in his third year of rule. Lungu says his first two years in office does not constitute a full term. Lungu has been drumming up support by targeting large multinational mining companies and threatening with measures resembling resource nationalisation at a time when the copper price is heading for renewed highs after a flat start to the year. Lungu’s government has been in running battles with several mining interest during his tenure. Despite a few projects in the pipeline, it seems that everybody is playing the wait and see game in Zambia. It is highly unlikely that the country will move forward before August or until the political battles have run their course. Nonetheless, the copper crushers continue to hum up north, and large operations like First Quantum’s Kansanshi and Sentinel mines are keeping up with production targets.

Although change has been slow in Southern Africa, the region holds immense wealth that can only be unlocked if the countries truly transform. Nevertheless, the wheels are turning, and it will be worthwhile keeping an eye on Southern Africa in the next year.

08 March 2021 – The Southern African region as a collective could be immensely powerful if the most influential countries within this block got their act together. Change has been slow, but there are positive signs that the Southern African giants are stirring.

Botswana, the crown jewel.

Botswana, arguably the uncrowned champion of Southern Africa, has had its ups and downs since 2019 after President Mokgweetsi Masisi took over from President Ian Khama. Covid-19 delivered a shocking blow to a country that depends on the diamond and tourism trades. Both these sectors were hard hit world-wide, and Botswana could not escape the calamity. But Masisi has made it his aim to diversify the economy and Botswana has ambitions to be regarded as a high-income country by 2036. There are several projects to keep an eye on. The government has invested in a special economic zone around the capital, Gaborone’s airport, which is due to be completed later this year. Pandamatenga, in the north of the country, boasts an impressive agro-processing zone and construction of a grain storage facility with capacity to hold 60 000 tonnes should also be completed this year. New mining projects include Cupric Canyon Capital’s Khoemacau copper project close to Ghanzi in the deep Kalahari which is on track to start operating soon. The expansion project at the Morupule Coal mine close to Palapye in the south is set to be completed by the end of the year, and there is a host of other oil and gas projects punted to come online in the next few years, which will improve the power situation in the country significantly. Meanwhile, the opening of the Kazangula bridge in the far north will provide easy access to Zambia and the rest of Africa, which will boost trade. Botswana is bound to bounce back hard in the next five years, as is South Africa, if it can get its house in order.

On a knifes edge

South Africa is by far the largest economy in the region, but President Cyril Ramaphosa is hamstrung by a divided and fractious ruling party suffering from ideological dystrophy. If Ramaphosa gets it right and manages to get rid of those holding back progress, the country will thrive. If not, South Africa is in trouble. Nevertheless, there are plenty to look forward to, especially in the mining space. Exceptionally high platinum prices bode well for the country (the largest producer of platinum in world) and new projects to look out for are Ivanhoe’s Platreef project and The Platinum Group Metals’ Waterberg project. There are a range of expansions and acquisitions in the pipeline, and the platinum space in South Africa could become extremely congested in the next couple of years. Meanwhile, all eyes are on ASX listed Orion Minerals’s Prieska and Okiep zinc/copper/nickel project in the Northern Cape. The Government has promised to encourage exploration in the country and if it pans out, South Africa might just again reclaim its title as the mining king of the world.

MM point about power outage in Botswana is well made but black outs are a common occurrence there for past decade. It does seem that Govt is now and finally more inclined to do something about the undue dependence upon SA for imported power, given the increasing unreliability of Morupule B. Solving this will take a few years but ‘every journey starts with the first step’ hence why I am finally becoming rather more optimistic about Tlou’s chance of success ahead. This day has been a long time coming!

The African Continental Free Trade Area (ACFTA), which came into effect at the beginning of 2021 with a market of 1.2 billion and combined GDP of $3 trillion, could contribute $76 billion to the world economy, according to World Bank.

However, trade between African countries will most likely to be hampered by lack of adequate infrastructure key in facilitating business. Africa, particularly the Sub-Saharan region has been grappling with the question of funding its infrastructure, and lags behind other regions in the world in meeting infrastructural needs.

As highlighted by African Development Bank in its 2018 economic outlook, one of the key factors ******ing industrialization has been the insufficient stock of productive infrastructure in power, water, and transport services that would allow firms to thrive in industries with strong comparative advantages.

The continent’s infrastructure needs an amount of $130–170 billion a year, with a financing gap in the range $68–$108 billion, according to African Development Bank. Africa’s infrastructure deficiency is well-documented, and has been subject of interrogation by development partners for decades.

Mr Smith, my question was directed to MM.

What ‘reports’ are you referring to MM?

Thanks Mr Smith for your valued contribution. It of course provides a level of variety not always available to posters as lucky as us on LSE board. Always good to know the sun will rise, and then set, and no matter where it is on its daily traverse, you will always be here for us all to ensure the conversation never strays too far off what you want to talk about.

We know what TG said - Mr Smith has reminded us all on this multiple times. Did Mr Smith ever stop to wonder if, when TG said what he said, did he expect to have to wait an unforeseeable 5 years before things might finally get going for Tlou.....
Because I am pretty sure TG did not expect the last few years of false starts .....
If I could respectfully request something of you Mr Smith, that would be that you appreciate that the greater majority of posters following Tlou are pretty aware of the history (good and less good) and actually what I believe most of us would like from here on is to talk, exchange views and debate what we see happening ahead (hopefully good but ignore Govt slow progress at one’s peril).....

Bigjeff, why do you think that? Donkey called Tlou a negative in 2017 and for best part of 3 years. If you had read and understood his posts recently, you would have noted his tone changed to something rather upbeat as things were gradually moving in Botswana. He called Bots inefficiency on the money; others sought comfort in headlines on Good Governance, Transparency Index, politically stable and look where that got them. Writing headlines is easy... I think you might find he is rather enjoying the current level of price appreciation. But what do I know

My sense of this rise is that the PPA is now progressing so fingers crossed there is a good outcome ahead.