Member Info for mrmoagi

Mr Smith. You probably won’t read this post since you say you have filtered me. Which is of course your right. I would say though much of what you post below is not how I view CBM matters in Botswana.
I understand the years of trying to establish CBM in Botswana means that Tlou and Sekaname must prove the concept, gain credibility and grow from there. It is fascinating that Tlou want to start small and grow; Sekaname want to go Big (rather than go home). Both no doubt thought through their respective strategies - it isn’t for me to criticise one v the other. But I am allowed to have my own opinion on their approach.
The opportunity for power generation in Botswana is huge. It has been huge for many years. Will that opportunity remain forever and a day, or will others in the market step in and fill the void?
Below is something that both confirms the opportunity but should also scare both Tlou and Sekaname. 2MW really is a small scale power generation plant; if large scale global miners eg Debswana can generate 50MW themselves on site via renewables, this will happen. Why? Because solar is well understood; it won’t require them to build a 100km connection to the grid; and because the large players have the balance sheet to commit to 25-50MW self-owned power generation projects.

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/de-ruyter-backs-call-for-lifting-of-licensing-cap-on-embedded-generators-to-50-mw-2021-02-02/rep_id:3650

Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter says the State-owned utility is fully supportive of moves by large customers to develop distributed generation plants to power their operations, as well as growing calls to lift the licensing threshold from 1 MW to 50 MW so as to accelerate these investments.

Volume was 110k shares. About 4K quid in value. Think we should wait and see if there is real follow through (I hope so, but ......).

Day 1 highlight being Ramaphosa address:

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/promote-greater-exploration-and-beneficiation-ramaphosa-2021-02-02

“Alongside our transformation imperatives, we continue to drive policy reform in the sector. We want to promote greater exploration and beneficiation in minerals and upstream petroleum activities, especially developing our domestic and regional gas market.

Mgojo also decried South Africa in 2019 accounting for only 1% of global exploration expenditure and only 0.1% of greenfield exploration, which contrasted sharply with Canada and Australia, for example. “We need exploration to grow our industry,” Mgojo said during a virtual State of the Mining Nation media briefing in which he described exploration as one of the low-hanging fruits that could change South Africa’s economic trajectory in the short term. Between 2000 and 2018, Canada, he said, attracted, on average, $2-billion in exploration dollars a year and Australia $1.8-billion, compared with a mere $194-million attracted by South Africa during the same period.

I appreciate I have a bit of a fixation on what Masisi is going to talk about on Wednesday in his address. That is because I firmly believe the macro factors are what has held Tlou and CBM back for years and years, and I am getting a bit excited and interested in the change unfolding there recently.
His points to be covered are below - Khoemacau Copper will be a big plug given they are spending $400m; Trans Kalahari Corridor is essential it is finished (jointly with Namibia); MDCB are starting to use their balance sheet to invest in local projects (hearing of a mega iron ore deposit to be developed); awaiting confirmation who BCL mine is being sold to (Canadians apparently are the favourites); Kalahari copper belt is being talked up big time; there is the Coal To Liquids PPP (which I personally think will never happen - simply too big); and and and an endless opportunity of solar projects (5GW JV with Namibia). So whilst I hope CBM and fledgling gas industry gets a plug, I am not betting the mortgage that it will (too small fry at present).

“Under the theme resilience and regrowth: adopting the new mindset for African Mining, Masisi is expected to address Botswana’s mining sector development including: progress on production and volumes in diamonds, gold, copper, coal, and iron ore; new diamond and copper licensing opportunities for explorers and junior miners; developments of infrastructure in Botswana’s Western corridor to stimulate international investment; and safeguarding investors through transparency and sustainable fiscal regimes.“

Masisi had a working trip to Namibia last Friday. Could be his Wednesday keynote speech will mention joint developments between the 2 countries, which I think means the 5GW solar farm (Power Africa are driving this for US interests) and completion of Trans Kalahari Corridor railway (essential infrastructure to enable and support supply chain logistics).
The IRP20-40 will likely get a plug as well, so hopefully CBM gets a mention.

Who here thinks the Govt rewrote the RFP.

Amazing where the mind takes one during lockdown.

How many posters here think Tlou are running the show ?

The annual mining jamboree usually in S Africa is being held next week virtually. Key speakers or sessions I see as:
Updates on S Africa’s power generation progress and supporting IPPs for mining operators - Cyril Ramaphosa, President of SA.

Reigniting southern Africa’s economies with new opportunities - Mokgweetsi Masisi, President of Botswana.

The bulk of the sessions are however about mining of precious metals (not oil and gas) and rebooting post covid. No doubt the entire event will talk about the great investment opportunity that Africa presents. Maybe covid will add the necessary urgency to give governments in africa the boot up the bum needed for them to start opening up and getting projects moving.

I imagine Masisi will talk about opportunities in Botswana with reference to the IRP20-40, but likely the bull will be about mining for gold and precious metals with the Kalahari Cooper Belt jurisdiction getting more focus. Still any exposure from this major event is good.

Comments on this thread remind me when Pumba faced off the hyenas in Lion King - Are you talking to me. Are you talking to me !!!!

Whoever you think I am, I’m not.

Covid is not stopping ReconAfrica from drilling; covid is not stopping One Bullion push its gold leases towards a listing; covid is not stopping between 5-10 exploration companies press on with their work on the Kalahari Copper Belt; covid is not stopping the diamond mines crank up through their gears again.

Few points of order Mr Million. So far, all there is is a 2mw contract (maybe it is a PPA but I doubt that) signed with BPC.
Next up is the negotiation of the 100mw tender - where Tlou and Sekaname both bid, both were awarded Preferred Bidder and presumably both with be part of the PPA negotiations starting soon/ February.
Sekaname have said on their website they bid for 97mw. Tlou have said they bid for an initial 2mw, scaling up to 10MW. Hence all this endless confusion about what was bid. Of course Tlou management have done nothing to clear it up.
As for whether Sekaname can deliver their 97mw - I have no idea. But an awful lot of Tlou supporters have repeatedly said here that they believe Sekaname cannot deliver on their bid. It begs the question - Why did they bid for 97mw if they cannot deliver it? Time will tell - if they negotiate for 97mw, go far down that road and then say at last moment Sorry we can’t deliver so much, well that would be a serious **** stop moment.
As for you thinking the Govt might split the 100mw as 50MW each. That seems fanciful to me since the amount would not be what either company bid for. Sekaname price would surely be lower since they were awarded less. Tlou price might have to be more, or less, since their pricing for 2 or 10MW will require a level of Capex and infrastructure and 50MW will surely require lots more Capex. So different pricing would need to be worked out. If the 100mw goes down that road - the PPA will need lots of months to negotiate.
Lastly, it sounds incredibly self-serving to me that you think Tlou might be offered the whole thing. There is enough confusion over their 2 horizontal wells for 2mw. Or maybe more. I see no way the Govt will arbitrarily decide that Tlou bid is good and Sekaname is bad, and ‘offer’ the full 100mw to Tlou (or any one party). It just doesn’t work that way.

I hope this is the last quarterly setting out the same old, same old narrative on activities and progress. It does mention funding for phase 1 expected by late Quarter 1.
I note the comments about well communication not being available to them. 2 wells were drilled yet only 1 is being dewatered. If well communication was so important, why only dewater one well whilst caveating their comments about data by saying more wells may need to be drilled. Any technical guys posting here? Not you Mr Smith please.

Could be - very much enjoyed the interview. Great interest in Botswana projects developing. He mentioned the BCL mine - i read last year the Govt hoped to announce who won the bid to reopen the mine and presumably the smelter before end 2020. No announcement yet but maybe it is getting close.

Well I think anyone holdings gazillions of shares here ahead of any share consolidation will feel somewhat aggrieved since trading history shows not much happens in the 2-3 years post consolidation. But hey, being in the game is better than being voted out.

This title thread seems the most appropriate one to post my next comment.

Look at any foreign listed company with Botswana project exposure and click on their 6 month share price history. I would be obliged if you post here one which is showing a negative return for the 6 month period. Sadly Tlou is in the lowest quartile for share price appreciation. But then it is showing an increase for this period, which is an improvement on the dirge we have been forced to swallow for past way too long while.

Anyone that thinks a share consolidation is not likely is rather delusional imo.
But then, a share consolidation is ultimately a good thing since without it, there really is no commercial pathway here to profitability and success.
That is the longer term view; no doubt most posters here are more interested in something considerably shorter term.

Do I assume therefore SJ because I have only posted on LSE for a week that, in your opinion, I knoweth not what I talk about?!

Well that came from nowhere in particular.

Sorry Mr Smith, in case my last post was not clear. Tlou do not and are not dictating MW here. Which unfortunately invalidates much of the nonsense you have repeatedly posted for the past 2 years, maybe more.

I realise that it is pointless trying to debate with you Mr Smith (having read for afar for quite some time), but the Ministry of Minerals ....& Energy Security released the IRP20-40 recently. Not Tlou, but the Ministry for ... Energy Security. And their IRP said - per documents posted on their Facebook site - 10MW by 2025. So Mr Smith, please don’t ask me to chose between what you advocate v them since .... you lose.
And I am equally confident the Govt or Ministry people know as much about dewatering as you do Mr Smith. Or me. Or Whizzer. Or 99% of people unlucky enough to be reading and influenced by narrative on LSE message board. Or any message board for that matter.
Completing the circle on that thought - CBM wells producing commercial flows of gas is well enough tested and understood by those people who have done it multiple times before. The Americans are world leaders in this; the Chinese will find a way (but likely at a higher environmental cost); same for our Indian brothers. But Arrow and Sunshine management teams never extracted gas quantities previously - they were lucky enough to be early enough in the gas cycle. That is what Tony is trying to repeat in Botswana - his problem however is the Botswana Govt made him perform a Japanese inspection these past 5 years. But he didn’t realise this until 3 years ago. And Tlou shareholders only started realising about 18 months ago. And here we all are..... sucked in, invested and hoping for the best that we can find a way to get our money back.
At a profit, or loss, or slightly above or below breakeven depends on your entry price. Or your average up/ down price. All this depends how clever or not so you have been over the past 2 years.
Will things get better? Look to the macro reality and place your bet.