Member Info for mrmoagi

Great post Smith. And it’s relevance is ....

With what looks like a capricious exercise, civil servants live in fear after a series of transfers and dismissals without warning since he assumed office in 2018. Pres Masisi’s purging spree has resulted in a rising level of anxiety among senior civil servants and a decline in focus and productivity for some. Civil servants who have worked for decades in Government Enclave have painted a gloomy picture of a demoralised cadre that lives in fear. Since assuming the presidency in April 2018, Masisi has made numerous changes, especially at permanent secretary and director levels across government departments. “We work for the sake of working,” said one visibly dispirited PS. “It is now close to impossible to think on one’s feet or take a decision independently. It is not that we dont want to take instructions, but the uncertainty is too much and affects our focus. You cannot bring new ideas to your job because the leadership may not like them.”

Interesting article appearing in the Botswana Gazette - it reads to me more like the not very good ones whingeing. More importantly it confirms that Masisi has been getting on with changing personnel within Govt and Ministries. Since that all takes time; it explains (to me anyways) much of the reason why the 100MW tender has been taking such a long time. ALSF was engaged to help with ‘capacity building’ across Govt departments and functions - that also takes time.

Steady as she goes. BUY the dips……. And dont listen to one word of the BS BS !

You are right App - everyone has the right to post what they want. Even me. Even OB. Even you....

The people I think are stupid - mostly those that believed the BS back in the Tidd era. And those that believe BS ramblings now. Oh and those that constantly disparage me (the individual) rather than have the wit to rad between the (very wide) lines. Seems that includes you then. I imagine we will both cope.

Well actually MFM I thought they were stupid listening to all the hype in the Tidd era back then - you know, blue sky ahead BS. Now however Bots is changing for the better as an investment destination - Cooper, nickel, diamonds, iron ore, manganese, rare earths, and the place is going to need lots more power. So now I like Tlou - back then, I didn’t.

You decide who and what you want to believe - that is part of your DYOR. At below 3p, anyone thinking I want to deramp Tlou further - well I would put them in the stupid bracket.

Whizzer -agree, there is a good conversation developing here for a change. And the reason it is good is because there is no BS in it.

MM - you seem awfully keen to end this conversation. Your want us to believe Tlou can generate power for export yet Minister said they were given a licence for ‘local power generation’.

BERA could have been in existence for 40 years for all the good they ever did. Yes they have brought in new people at the top recently - give them time to get functioning. Same as BPC new folks; lots of new folks all across Govt as you said in post yday.

You keep trying to sell the point that all things relevant to Tlou and SAPP and exporting power has been in place for these past few years. They were not; they are not there yet now; there is work still to be done until these things change. And my best bet is Tlou (and Sekaname) will need to generate power (selling it to BPC) in consistent and decent quantity Before BPC, Ministry, Govt allow any IPP operating within Botswana will be allowed to use the Botswana network for selling /exporting power.
But see I know you know that - but you don’t dare admit to since to do so would devalue your efforts of the past couple of years here.
My sense is OB has got lots more left in the tank to explain to us how the Botswana power market really works. And I am delighted he is here posting - he has said he likes Tlou as a stock, which means he likes the electricity generation potential here - try to show some respect to people who actually know technical detail. We will all benefit - even you.

Share price of 2.7 pence. Your efforts have been pretty useless and the retail punters really don’t matter here. Truth generally always outs in the end....

MM - you are getting a chance to demonstrate knowledge and intelligence. We already know you are well versed in sarcasm, put downs, innuendo. Let’s see whether there is another deeper side to you, eh. Maybe go see what your technical people say on this, since so far you don’t seem to me to be all that familiar. But happy if you prove me wrong.

MM - i don’t see any BS in what OB posted, just as I don’t see any in yours actually. OB has stated the current state of the electricity market in Botswana (ie only 1 buyer, BPC) and membership of SAPP. You agree with him re BPC monopolistic position here but then you talk about how the market needs to change ahead (OB talked about how the market is now).
I don’t disagree that the local market needs to change; equally I believe that change is underway - but this is Botswana and this change will take time for sure. How much or how long until - I have no idea.
The point is structural change usually takes considerable time.
My point is - Tlou started talking about connecting to SAPP in 2017 and implied that they could connect to the grid then and sell power unrestricted. That was not the case then; it still isn’t the case now - although in time to come, given the reasonably recent changes in Govt and Ministry personnel, this market will open up (with profound changes to ie unbundling of BPC).
In other words Tlou were being disingenuous in what they were saying back then. This led many fairly naive punters to take the plunge here (stoked by BS from Tidd, Buzz, ... back in the day).
I was even impressed by the speed of your spirited defence to OBs comments - likewise I continue to read your posts and wonder what your true purpose might be....
I look forward to hearing OBs point of view on your comments.

DTE - suggest you check out membership of SAPP before diving head first into an empty swimming pool.

Member Status
The Botswansa Power Corporation, Electricidade de Mocambique, ESKOM, Eswatini Electricity Company, Lesotho Electricity Corporation, NAMPOWER, Societe Nationale d'Electricitite, Zesco Limited, and the Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority are operating members of the Power Pool.
The Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi, Empresa Nacional de Electricidade, and the Tanzania Electricity Supply Company Ltd are the non-operating members of the Power Pool.
The Copperbelt Energy Corporation is the only Independent Transmission Company of the Power Pool.

MM - you really are an old tease !! All you had to do was plant the seed....... Definitely you amused me with this.

Time however will catch up with you on this one!!

As usual, more interested in transmitting his own point of view (which we have all heard and read for years - and nothing changes) that stepping back and thinking about some really good information.
Information that will help all of us perhaps question ourselves, our research and our conclusions.

As for on/off filter - do it or don’t do it. But stop talking about it. And stick with it.

Goodness his world is crashing down. All those hours spent reading and researching for online gospel; so many posts selling his own ideas; so much time wasted arguing with anyone daring to disagree - and all he needed to do was make a phone call.

If I didn’t know better, I would say this was the biggest string along of the century.

However, assuming OB is actually factually correct - then does this not put the spotlight back on TG and Tlou management for how they have informed the market about selling into the SAPP ??!!

Now there is something worth thinking a lot further and deeper about.

Whizz, they don’t have sufficient cash to finish whatever work they start on the transmission line. And to get the necessary dollars, they need to secure material funding, and to secure material funding they need a bankable PPA.
Anyone that tries to tell you otherwise is a snake oil salesman!
So I think you should prepare yourself for Tony telling us in the end July quarterly update that maybe the PPA has just been negotiated but more likely I expect they will tell us it have been extensively negotiated and is nearing final agreement.
Then hopefully they secure the material funding in Qtr 3 so we can be properly under starter’s orders. But any slippage on this and guess what, we are again in the world of extended Xmas and New Year shut down, meaning real work only starts Feb 22.
All I am saying is, prepare yourself for the possibility .... hopefully I am well wrong. And happy to be so!

I simply however cannot see how TG would sanction spending the bulk of the recent funds raised starting the transmission line when he doesn’t have the money to pay for completion. Would the Contractors sign up on this basis? If they do, for sure they will be pulling progress payments regularly or maybe even demanding upfront payment.
Also would shareholders agree with such a gung Ho front running type of business strategy - I ain’t sure they would.
So - we need a PPA to then secure funding, to then get the real work on the transmission line underway. No doubt they can do easy and Low spend parts in the interim - but not the heavy lifting, high spend part.
Just my opinion - happy to be wrong.

Smith - despite all your posting telling everyone how and why everything is rosy in the CBM garden, and after multiple fund raises, don’t you think it somewhat underwhelming the share price is so Low? Now 3p or so.
Yet you have spent the best part of lockdown and probably the year before posting TG has matters under control; has picked a winning project in a winning jurisdiction.

The rest of us all see what you say, what you think, etc. But maybe you need to take a step back and try to see a wider picture here mate.
Some of us are getting a spot worried about your mental health now .... You may have an OCD problem here....
Worried about you man !!

You have demonstrated to yourself how Sekaname are in no position to agree a PPA. Thankfully for them, you have no input to the negotiations.
Neither Tlou nor Sekaname have ever brought a CBM facility into commercial production, but guess what - they can appoint Developers and Operators that have. Just as Tlou are appointing someone to built their transmission line.
And best part you have your mental block on - both need funding and to get that, both need a commercially attractive, bankable PPA with a solid counterparty where payment of the power sold is market secure. No lender in his right mind will lend to a project purely on the strength of BPC being the market /payment side - they are dependent of Govt for financial support. And Govt is pushing BPC to become commercially minded and less demanding of Govt support - so hey ho, I wonder how long the PPA negotiations will stick on this particular point.
And before you go yabbing that Tlou will sell directly to SAPP - they won’t because Govt /BPC will not let them.
OldBailie can educate you on why this is, providing you have the humility and desire to learn.

That’s great - hey thanks for clarifying your thinking.

"the only factor that is needed to develop a gas field is a customer who can commit to buying gas” - so basically you, me, Kalahari, Strata-X, a taxi driver could have responded to the Ministry 100mw tender and we would all have been awarded Preferred Bidder status. Gosh I wish I had known that, as I would have submitted something. Tell me - does the Orapa 90MW tender follow similar lines?

PPA - interesting you still see this as only mildly relevant. I suppose that is because Tlou have drilled and can flare gas, so job done on the exploration side. Now just pile into the development side, which remind me please, needs lots of what exactly ??
And to get whatever lots of ‘that’ is, I wonder what the suppliers of ‘that’ themselves actually need for themselves.
I think you are even right about OB - those were seriously dopey, irrelevant questions. Your answers were very informative. Enjoy rest of your weekend - I think watching the paint dry on my garden fence is going to be more interesting than reading what you have to say.

So you give Ministry, Minister Moagi and Tlou mgmt positive weighting for their 2-10MW Preferred Bidder award in the 100mw tender; yet give no credit to Kalahari for their 97mw Preferred Bidder award in same tender. Since you highly rate Ministry and Minister Moagi, can you explain your logic here.
And your slant on Mr Ntsimanyana (whoever he is) is his words appearing in Bots newspaper are not to be trusted; yet words appearing in same newspaper about Tlou is something to get excited about. Care to explain that logic as well.
And we all know (coz it is public knowledge) the fieldwork work Tlou did to it’s Preferred Bidder status, but you suggest Sekaname have done no fieldwork to achieve their Preferred Bidder status. Care to explain this logic.

3 more questions for you to help you enjoy a productive weekend. If you have time leftover, have a go on OBs first 3 questions again perhaps. If you are going to transmit endless amounts of your thoughts, you really are going to have to justify them to your adoring followers who wait for your every pronouncement.
Have a lovely weekend ahead.

More good signals coming from the new Govt approach to getting the local economy finally moving from the malaise under SIK days. Takes time of course, but good that my Uncle is front and centre in this initiative for the mining community.

The Minister of Mineral Resources, Green Technology and Energy Security, Hon. Lefoko Moagi said it is the government's commitment to re-open the mines.

He said this recently when he visited the Mowana Mine in Dukwi to see their progress as the mine was put under Judicial Management in 2018. Minister Moagi indicated that negotiations or preparations to re-open the mine are close to completion and MP Mining Company has shown interest of operating the mine.

The Director of Mines, Ms Sellinah A. Mogojwa highlighted that the company is currently refurbishing the processing plant and they have shown a great progress in all the requirements and complied well.

The company managing director, Mr John Hinchliffe has indicated that there will be great investment if the mine is managed well. The minister encouraged them to create employment especially for citizens rather than importing from other countries while there are a lot of skilled manpower in our country.

The Minister further visited the Mupane Gold Mine which prides itself on being the only major gold producer of Botswana. The mine currently has 2 underground pits and has over 500 employees.

Speaking during the tour, Member of Parliament for Tati-East, Hon. Douglas Letsholathebe who is also the Minister of Tertiary Education, Science and Technology appreciated minister Moagi's visit and the work done by Mupane mine. He said the mine is very committed to helping Batswana around their area through Corporate Social Responsibility.

The Minister said he will continue touring different mines to see their progress and how the government can assist in creating jobs for Batswana and re-opening the closed mines.

Tunnel vision - now that’s a good one! Do you spot your own irony.

Filters - you have had your blinkers on for decades mate.

Thanks though for making my weekend. Your were asked .... and you were found utterly wanting. At least we now all know just how little you actually know. Have a good weekend posting to yourself.