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Two things DShox, firstly you acknowledge’no risk no reward’ and then dismiss that there’s any risk at all. Secondly, look at the time frames between the authorities receiving the completed ESIA in the first instance and then being told the water treatment plan wasn’t up to scratch. It was a matter of a few months. So the authorities were not just able to ratify the ‘other’ aspects of the ESIA in that time but, they were also able to assess that EML’s water plans weren’t appropriate.
Now, compare the timescale between the re-submission and up to now, where no indications have been received.
Why? It’s a simple question and the answer isn’t Covid, Ramadan, the Kings signature, changes of government etc etc etc!
Starting to again suspect somethin’ ain’t right. Just rewatched a Proactive Investors interview with GC from late 2020. “ESIA is complete and we expect the permit to be awarded in H1 2021 and construction starting in H2 2021”.
Say what now….?!?!?
Either he has received incredibly bad advice, he’s a complete moron or EML are having its chain pulled by the Moroccan Authorities? None of which are acceptable for a publicly listed company.
The history of AIM is littered with mining companies that signed JV’s with companies that then went on to take control of them by funding raises directly and diluting existing shareholders out of financial existence.
I would be more happy with a direct off-take agreement with OCP at a reduced rate or abandonment of the tax-free holiday.
Anything except a vehicle that allows a third party to take a too substantial stake in EML for comparative peanuts.
He’s not wasting my time, I read all posts. If he was being a clown I’d understand but he’s not. It’s just as important to get a pov from frustrated investors as it is from positive investors. Not doing so creates a false position.
Cbax…are you getting your updates by post? You’ll see 10p was breached at 1:22pm…or thereabouts. You posted at 2:05pm.
Me personally, I wouldn’t criticise any post until I knew for definite that I was right. Just saying…! :0D
@DShox - Clarke has stated that any further fund raise will unlikely be under 15 or 16p a share. So whenever we’ve done our fag packet calcs on here, we’ve largely based a £300m(debt) £100m (equity) on those numbers. Or at least, I have.
However, once permit has been approved and this steams ahead into the 20’s & 30’s, the equity raise sp price may be higher.
I’m guessing that by the time we’re in full production, we’ll have just shy of 2bn shares, hopefully 1.5bn and a Mcap of a pound’ish. Orior has us at £1.88 plus but I’m not sure how likely that’ll be. I can see how it could happen; EBITDA to US$509m supporting a valuation of 170p/share at 8x EV/EBITDA if the incremental capex is funded out of operating cashflow. (Courtesy of Twitter). However, what needs to remembered through all of this is that £1.70 a share would make me a millionaire, and I’m the unluckiest chuff you could ever not wish to meet.
All guesses of course and all only my uneducated opinion.
If this blows, I’m not sure where the resistance would start. Uncharted territory for EML now so I’m guessing resistance would start at maybe 12-14p. That would be medium term bag returns for a lot of guys so top slicing perhaps. I can’t see anything higher without the permit, but then again like Audible, I might just be talking out my arris!
I’ve been in Chariot seven years. It’s about time that gave some sort of return. Bit concerning that they’re having to use debt brokerage and there hasn’t been respectable third party verification of their Anchois asset yet.
In any case, BOOM 8p gone here!!! :0D
With this delay in getting the permit, once it does finally drop, I doubt they’ll be time for the s.p to reach 40p, before finance news is released. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if we didn’t get the ESIA RNS followed by at least a finance MOU soon after. Perhaps even the same day.
In my mind, if the BoD’s haven’t got some sort of unconfirmed finance already in the pipeline by now, then they really are a bunch of incompetent fools.
I think it would be cheaper to pump water from the Nile, Zambezi etc into a series of reservoirs. But that would need a continental unity never seen before. The Zambezi dumps 3,424 m3 of fresh water per second into the Indian Ocean, the Nile discharges 2,633 m3/s and the Congo 41,800 m3/s). Africa has enough fresh water, they just haven’t got the finances and collegiate thinking to sort their differences out.
TP…it may shock but me and OOSM have very rarely been on the same page regarding EML esp the fund raises at 5p and less and the delay with this bloody environmental permit. However, lately we have come to an unspecified truce where neither of us seems to want to choke the other ;0).
Deep down, I think OOSM knows ‘something is up’ with the permit but if we all went hell for leather berating EML, we’d be back at tuppence a share.
I feel I’m the beautiful middle ground between you both. :0D