RE: Still a way to go but ....8 Dec 2025 18:47
Just to clear up why that 0.12p–0.35p range still stands, becuase ppl keep obsessing over Conrad’s £16m headline like its the full value.
That £16m is only the staged upfront, not the total value of the 75%. It also includes full dev carry + contingent payments + production-linked upside, so you can’t just pro-rata EME’s 8.5% off that and pretend you’ve priced the asset. Any proper settlement for EME has to reflect:
- future cashflows,
- the need for clean title for Nations,
- and the reality that Conrad can’t complete cleanly with EME hanging in dispute.
On the basic maths alone: 5.7bn shares means every £5–6m of clean cash = about 0.10–0.11p on the sp. That’s before you even talk about any retained WI, royalities, carry or upside. If the debt and legal mess gets cleared properly, AIM always overshoots on the re-rate – that’s where the 0.20p–0.35p zone comes from, not from fairy dust.
So outcomes based on sub-£6m settlements just don’t stack up if this gets sorted commercially rather than rammed thru arbitration. DYOR. GLA etc