RE: Pied Piper3 Feb 2026 10:01
The CLN update is definitely an important milestone, as myself and others have already stated.
But I think the whole “Mako just becomes a debt repayment vehicle” suggestion is nonsense. The lender won’t leave us with nothing - that’s counter intuitive for them. They are grateful to be getting anything back considering the risk that’s just irradiated.
Nations aren’t some priority creditor scooping everything first either - they’re funding the build and recovering their carry out of production, which is standard project finance on developments like this. That doesn’t make the asset worthless for everyone else, it’s just how these projects are structured.
More importantly, the dispute risk is now gone, funding is secured and EME has zero future cash calls. That alone completely changes the risk profile versus where we were even a few months ago.
On valuation, the disparity is pretty obvious. Conrad on ASX is being valued like a funded gas developer - signed GSA, Indonesian government backing, Nations paying for the build, first gas targeted 2027. The market there is clearly pricing Mako as a serious asset.
EME now sits on the same project with defined economic exposure through the SPV, a slice of the farm-out consideration and no funding risk, but yet it’s still valued at a few million! Madness - but great if you’re invested here now, at these budget prices. The low mcap made sense when people feared losing the stake or being buried by debt. It makes far less sense now, and the market knows it.
These prices won’t stay here for long. Once lender terms are sorted and approvals keep ticking through, it will move north fast!
GLA.
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