Member Info for mrc_mrc_mrc_mrd

Agreed Aimster.

Drip drip finance is just awful. Just get it done. Nice big placing to remove the uncertainty. Makes me wonder if the funding is possible actually.

Doubt it Chilting, they are still way over priced. Retail is feeling pain. You can see this in robinhood IMHO. Retail has been a big part of the buy the dip mantra, and I think they are weak.

Easiest way to go is down. Might see some dead cat bounce a few times along the way but my bet is down from here by end 2022.

Opex might be on the high side ($19 in H1 2021). You have higher production forecast for 2022 (primarily the very low cost Golden eagle) so that should bring down unit opex. I would estimate $20 taking account of rising input costs.

Capex depends how much drilling they do. $300 million sounds reasonable. I think AB will at least try to maintain production at 50k through drilling and grow through acquisitions.

I’m sure I saw debt costs in the prospectus but can’t find it now. Hopefully we will have interest costs below your $100 million with an early refinance.

L3 is a balloon. Loves the smell of his own farts I think.

https://youtu.be/7FAI_-woNh4

48-52k assuming no new wells

Splitting hairs again there Chris

I think reading the financial statements it is even more of a quagmire than I remember.

Sorry Chris you are right on the £538k for 2019.

Add on the direct fees though and it’s £650kish.

It makes you wonder who gets these other items? Are we getting good value? Competitive tenders? I seriously doubt it.

Seems very expensive for accountancy fees - you could employ 2 good corporate accountants full time for a year for £196k. This company is needlessly complicated but even so…

The BOD need to start justifying some of this stuff IMHO.

Chris we also paid a substantial amount to JF directly as directors fees. This was on top of the consultancy work. £62k in 2019 and £73k in 2020.

Doug Rycroft takes a cut directly as senior management too!! 13k in 2020.

Alastair Ferguson is also a huge drain for what seems to be a very part time role. £134k in 2019 and £143k in 2020.

These guys are not earning their keep IMVHO.

I see Tom Reynolds is getting involved in the double dipping as well. Handed out £27k in 2020 and 53k in 2019 to one of his companies for management services!!!

In 2020 he also took 57k in share based payment and 16k in salary.

In 2019 he took also took out 52k in salary and fees.

SHS - for year ending 2019, I suspect but will never be told for sure that Gneiss trousered most of these items

Professional, legal and consulting fees - £855k
AIM related costs including investor relations - £246k
Costs relating to OneDYAS transaction - £653k
Accounting related services - £196k
Directors remuneration - £ 299k

Total for 1 year is £2.25 million

In 2019 absolutely nothing was achieved. How can any of these costs be justified?

Suggest you look again SHS - it is in the millions I believe - the AD deal was 300k alone. The one days deal was eye watering. That is one offs as well. If you consider the ongoing consultancy and use of our man Doug and JF…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-26/grantham-has-an-even-scarier-prediction-than-his-crash-call?srnd=premium-europe

Just ignoring the millions that go out the door on fees?

Finance doesnt seem to come cheap when arranged by Gneiss. Nor do asset disposals. I expect £5 million to be raised over the year if the asset is not given up. They burned through HE1 cash and prolific cash at a fair rate of knots!!

If your scenarios were plausible the SP would not be @ 0.75p.

At the end of the day even a 3 bags doesn’t get you back to the SP 3 years ago when this disaster of a BOD started dishing out the Gneiss contracts and selling assets.

Sorry what is it then, £4.75 million?

You are splitting hairs here Chris. As SHS says, they essentially need to raise the value of the company again to fund the work programme.

The $6.25 million does NOT include ongoing Gneiss fees and other costs.

I am going to be clear. sCIR need at LEAST £5 million of new cash to get through the next 12 months.

Chris - these things usually cost more than estimated. £5 million is realistic IMHO.

If they do it in one go that would be best. Get themselves fully funded for the next 12 months to give themselves a fighting chance in sales negotiations.

Drip drip is a terrible strategy

Chris - prolific may or may not put in 3 million, if they do I would imagine they will use the million pounds of shares they have to drive the price down.

My suspicion is that nobody else will take part in a fund raise while that perverse incentive hangs over the company.

Feel free to explain why it would not be in Prolifics interests to do this? Thought not…

Lol, love these little barbs you throw my way AA!

SHS - if we assume £5 million required then I think 0.3p is possible. Particularly if they continue with this drip drip approach.

Personally I think the outcome here is relinquishment of Ruvuma. I can’t see where the money men are going to conjur the sort of dough required.

The only other outcome in my view is a sale, but that appears to be moving very slowly. Might be forced to a fire sale offer to get anything back.

All my opinion.

Lol, not sure what you find funny about the SP dropping again?? Is it if you don’t laugh you cry??

We have the new shares dropping on the market at the end of the week - another 3% dilution, and firepower to drive the SP down substantially, if our friends at prolific choose to do so.

GLA

I wonder how much is debt interest costs sapping away the Cash flow.

That is where ENQ are in a much better position. If AB can get bonds refinanced at a lower rate (or even just smaller bonds) then we have a great sustainable base to build on.

For me it’s hard to see where the rewards come from at tullow. Their assets are concentrated and ageing same as ours so risk there seems very high. Surprised they are holding up this well today.

Doesn’t look like the WEN news has had a positive impact?