Member Info for MrAltruistic

Good Morning All, looks like the potential post Boxing Day Omicron Circuit Breaker is feeding through to the Markets today. How big will the drop be today? Currently, the “normal” Santa Run positive jump up on the markets seems unlikely. Does that mean this year we will have an Anti-Santa Run.

bald-eagle, agreed. I was also wrong. Based on the Fed Rate remaining “as is” and the U.K. usually following it’s lead I had changed my position from the cert of 15basis points increase to not until next month. Strange that the price jumped before the actual news broke. I’d have to agree with MrWolf, It certainly looked like a blatant leak.

indigoblue, any reason you have copied and pasted my message? Very strange….

Good Morning bald_eagle, yes, the joys of gambling on the markets! As with all decisions in life, they are made for a collection of reasons but it is the seemingly innocuous ‘straw that breaks the camels back’ that seems to have the major effect! I still read that the U.S. markets are massively overpriced and that a correction is due, and I can’t disagree, but then this Nostradamus views has been recycled (even by me) for at least the last two years. As with any journey, there will always be bumps in the road. The most important thing to me is to know where you are going before you board the bus I.e. back to a simple strategy of a pencilled in price exit on either a positive or negative direction of stock price movement within a defined timescale. Simple eh? Yeah… right.

Good Luck my Friend.

Good Morning eastern_investor, the Kenny Rogers puns and lyrical replies are certainly having the affect on me to “I want to make you smile”. Good to see you have your head screwed on, similar to myself I.e. humble in victory and gracious in defeat. With the Fed advising at least 3 rate increases in 2022, and inevitably the Rest Of the western world to follow, I suspect the return of 190p+, in theory should be no more than 3 months away?

Good Luck my Friend.

bald_eagle, “Double take....63 THOUSAND posts!!!! What does he do in his spare time?!”

ROFL… made me laugh!

Hope you’re well my friend? I’m interested for your current viewpoint - are you looking to hold, fold or walk away… as Kenny Rogers would say.

Muffster, “ Or, is the drop already priced in?” that is the $64,000 question?

I guessed right that the Fed would not increase rates. Looking at the history of the B of E, they have NEVER increased Base Rate in the month of December since records began… for that reason alone I can’t see them increasing them tomorrow, albeit, they probably should to counter balance the record inflation figure for the U.K. economy of 5.1%.

Let’s see… Dow Jones currently up, FTSE100 futures currently to the upside, that said they can change overnight.

All imho please MYOC and GLA.

No Fed US Rate increase for December 2021.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced that it is accelerating its removal of monetary support for the economy, citing a rise in inflation that has seen the biggest jump in prices nearly 40 years. In a move to cool growth, policy makers also said they expect to hike interest rates three times in 2022.

"With elevated inflation in mind, officials see the need for a quicker removal of support measures. All officials also expect tighter policy next year and beyond," Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist with High Frequency Economics, said in a report.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to give a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern time laying out his outlook for the economy and the bank's upcoming policy changes.

Yes, Omicron new infections not looking good albeit still a little early to know the ramifications of the affect on humans and the strength of the variants serious illness potency. I am hoping with fingers crossed that the signals from South Africa get confirmed I.e. Mild illness, low mortality rates, low hospitalisation rates. The affect to the markets retracting, short term, is fairly inevitable. So Barclays continues to deflate, in a one step forward, two steps back manner I see. Closing at 176.48p. If the omicron numbers keep rising per day, suspect that my indicative 173p drop level may well be broken this week? For the time being, with the intention of a purchase, my hands will still remain in my pocket.

All imho please MYOC and GLA.

Good Morning All,

It will be interesting to have the US Fed Rate decision confirmed tonight. I'm leaning to them to leave things where they are personally... as I am for the UK and Euro Zone.
My 'buying' hands will remain firmly in my pocket today. Ad for tomorrow? Hmmmm....

All IMHO please MYOC and Good Luck All

Wednesday 15th December 7.00pm US Rate Announcement
Thursday 16th December 12.00pm UK Rate Announcement
Thursday 16th December 12.45pm Euro Rate Announcement

Bloodbath due to Omicron? A further discount to current prices is more likely than a bloodbath imho. The markets and Private Investors are waiting for Central Bank Policy Base Rate decisions to be made this week along with the key US Federal Rate decision on Wednesday evening overshadowing events. This will set some direction. This week we have Bank of England, Eurozone and Japan giving Rate announcements. Let’s be clear, the US Rate decision is the biggest stone to be thrown in the pond. So my Current thinking is that pre 2.30pm Wednesday may be a key time to purchase if you believe a U.S. Rate increase will happen…. Hmmm?

https://www.sharecast.com/news/Company-Announcement-General/Barclays-2021-BoE-Stress-Test-Results--dl32329555.html

Good News?

Muffster, many thanks for your thoughts.
I have looked at Lloyds so many times but just can’t warm to their ‘penny stock’ pricing. As for the share board on here for Lloyds… OMG. Talk about, aggressive, rude and bickering. Trying to get a sensible view or response on there is crazy!

In fairness, if I were to take a chance on a heavily focused U.K. Bank stock then I would be inclined to take a flutter on Nat West rather than Lloyds.

All imho please MYOC and Good Luck my Friend.

A short 60 second read relating to the ‘sister’ US$ stock that typically mirrors the movement of the UK stock. Looks like I may not be the only one that sees a potential Buying opportunity? The question is when to strike.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/barclays-becomes-oversold-bcs

So the 180p Support Level has been breached with the share price closing at 178.14p as I suggested/suspected last Thursday. Next stop circa 173p in a typical one step forward two steps back behavioural pattern? My buy finger is now becoming seriously itchy. The largely unknown threat of Omicron being the major reason for today’s drop as soon as the Dow Jones started to fall on open at 2.30pm this afternoon. Anyone else see a potential (short term) buying opportunity?

All imho please MYOC and GLA.

Lol... or juggling knives! Not sure if the Santa Run for this share is still on track? Let's see what happens over the next 7 days.

Good Luck All

I can only assume that today’s drop was related to the Covid Plan B aftershocks? Personally, I still think that 180p is a key support level for Barclays. If it breaks below this trigger then I will start to consider a short term lump flutter. That said, I haven’t checked the Financial Calendar for the next 7 days upto next Thursday’s BofE announcement but from memory US Inflation figures I believe are due tomorrow? If they show another leg up, then this could spook the markets. And is the December 0.15%+ expected BofE Base Rate increase already baked into the falling share price?

All imho please MYOC and GLA.

The link:

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/education/2021/12/07/barclays-bank-a-cheap-stock-technically/

A detailed write up here by the Investors Chronicle. I will include the link and summary below.

Just one word of warning, I was only allowed to click on the link and read the article in full on one occasion. Thereafter, it was asking me to register. So just bare this in mind before you click on the link. A good 5 minute read:

Summary:

“
Not exciting but a strong technical story
This is not an especially exciting story and any bull case on the stock is largely a technical one, but one that is nonetheless well-founded. The board is clearly convinced that there is scope to sustain a much higher Return On Assets (ROA) even if still below the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and the analyst community appears similarly on-side. The problem is that many fund managers remain cautious and are somewhat jaded after watching poor performance for much of the past decade. Several more quarters of improved performance are likely to be needed to change hearts and minds. So, any rerating of the stock does not appear imminent. It does feel as though it will come in time, but any private investor looking at buying Barclays does need to proceed with their eyes wide open. Banks are still inherently risky, geared cyclical businesses and Barclays has had the additional burden of losing three chief executives following a string of scandals. The dividend is forecast to rise from last year's 1p to 6p this year, then on to more than 9p by 2023 so more than a 5 per cent payout looks to be on offer at this point, which should be something of a cushion for the risk. 
There are still a lot of questions over the pace, extent and sustainability of recovery here and relying on a largely technical argument for buying a share is not the most compelling. While it does feel as though there are many stronger buy cases in the market today, there is certainly some allure in a potential c50 per cent capital gain and a 5 per cent yield, but Barclays is still only one for the less risk-averse.”