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Although, that being said Fenja would have to come under LBE's bolt on exploration, because its not actually producing yet.

It would make sense for them to be looking at some of the Suncor assets, as Faroe used to own some of them.

"Fenja partial divestment (2018): sold 17.5% stake to Suncor in 2018 for $54.5m (including tax), reducing capex by $225m" - 2019 presentation.

Hi Daveri,

Do you have any details? We are talking transaction news presumably rather than just share incentive plan news, etc

All the very best,

Starting to move....

A buy back would be lovely, but with Peter Levone owning just under 30%, I can't see it as he would beed to get an exemption from having to go for a takeover.

Would be nice though and I do think there should be corporate action to clear the seller.

It might drift to that level pre RTO, but I think any raise would be at a premium to the IPO price of 100p. If done at the same premium RRE did their first transaction at then, we would expect a raise at 300p, but TBH until we get an RNS it's all guess work.

It would be quite nice if we got an update that even said something like "we were talking to five people but we have moved down to the final two parties for negotiations".

Even a hint would be appreciated, as we are nearly a year on from the IPO now.

"Very excited about a 0.75% stake taken in an oil and gas play. The most since Rockrose. As news-flow starts , views on scale of upside to follow."

Could be, but I'd be surprised, as thst only compared to RRE in regards to position size terms. Nevertheless, I'll be delighted if he is buying.

I would love it to be baron, but he'd normally go for a producer, so it would be a bit out of step for him.

Well, fingers crossed it is a big deal and then we'll all be happy!

I'm being cautiously optimistic.

I would love to see a 10k bopd or more deal, but I don't necessarily think it's likely.

I reckon we'll end up getting 5-7k bopd with a better overall quality of field. I'd be delighted with the former, but when you look at what the prices have shifted by, it's not quite as much as some people seem to think (me included).

If we look at Exxon, last year they sold 150k bopd (20 fields) to Var Energi for $4.5bn.

They're looking to flog their UK north sea assets (37k bopd, 15 fields) with a 2019 estimate putting it at $2bn (https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinese-Oil-Giant-Could-Buy-Exxons-North-Sea-Assets.html).

Let's halve that.

If they go for $1bn total, then that still puts your cost per bopd at $27,027, where as when they sold to Var last year that figure was at $30k per bopd.

Now, adding into that financing appetite may have changed, etc, I don't think it's clear cut that they get multiples more than the 3-5k bopd that was initially talked about by the BOD.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see it and I'm still gently buying up stock, but it's not as obvious to me as it is for some that they suspend and come back with a huge deal over what was initially expected.

I hope they do split them down in to the 15 separate fields, but I don't think it's necessarily clear cut that they will. They didn't with their Norway assets last year for example and lots of the current deals going through at the moment are still whole package deals - I suspect that's because they know it will drag on a lot longer if they split it.

Binding bids are apparently expected this month so we'll see soon I suppose.

Some of it I suppose also is logistical and based on how Exxon sell their UK north sea assets.

If they break it down a bit then you very well may be right, but I think that if it sells as one portfolio then it will go to any of China Petroleum & Chemical (SNP), Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration, EnQuest, Tailwind Energy, NEO Energy, and Siccar Point Energy who are apparently interested from news leaks.

Hi Daveri,

My guess is that they're looking to buy some of the Exxon assets that they sold to Var Energi last year.

Var bought a whole portfolio (over 40 fields I think) in off-shore Norway and said they were looking to divest from some of the assets acquired.

I might be wrong, but that's my best guess with the information I have on who is looking to sell what.

There's certainly still a buyer around. I think there's a good chance that Myles McNulty has taken this stock initially as a trade but has levelled it up to being a longer term hold.

Yah, that's my view Paul.

I think we'll be all about Bopd first and then bolt in exploration later if need be.

One thing that does make me think me might have a deal set up to get over the line quite soon is that they had their half year results audited when they didn't need to. FY results were out in February last year, so it implies they think that one before then is more likely than not, else they would just wait.

"Given the improved market conditions, the Company has arranged for these interim accounts to be audited so that in the event that a transaction is entered into and a re-admission document or prospectus required, the Company will have recent audited numbers available for inclusion."

Seconded, Paul.

Apologies. That should be 20usd net back, not bopd.

My guess is that this refers to hedging production.

Let us say they spend 200m usd and get 30k bopd from BP (entirely hypothetical).

At 20bopd net back hedged at 40usd/bbl, they would make $219m a year hedged, so the need for equity raising drops quite a lot when you can hedge production.

My feeling is they will still raise both as there will be an appetite for equity on a good deal, but it's not clear cut that it would be required per say.