Member Info for MozzaBezza

I think I can probably get behind all of that Chance.

I hope to get another top up in before the end of the month. My top up this morning bumped my average up by around 10p, which was a bit annoying, but that should be insignificant come any RTO.

I completely agree with your logic, Munchbox, however for me personally, I feel that I do a much better service to myself to be cautious.

The fact is, I think that if they were going for only a few thousand bopd then that would probably have happened by now, so there's a large part of me that thinks that they may have started at that point, but have stepped up. Hence the delays.

It would be nice to have an update, although, I get that they can't really say anything, but even if they just said that they were aiming at 10kbopd rather than 3-5kbopd that would be enough for me.

I added a few more this morning too. It raised my average by about 10p, but I think come the RTO any equity raise will be done multiples higher than here.

I would like to think that they would be able to buy more BOPD, although i wonder if to an extent there is a danger that one one hand you can get more BOPD, but that attitudes towards lending are maybe not so good.

I still have in my minds eyes 3000-5000 bopd and if they deliver more than that, then I will be delighted.

Let's assume that they are doing a book build at the moment.

I suppose most of how long it would take to do it would depend on 1. the valuation 2. how much they're raising.

If they're raising a lot of cash then it could explain why it's taking a while, because it's not necessarily going to be the case that the institutions that supported the IPO would want to take an equivalent level of exposure to their IPO stakes.

Also, it may well be that some of the institutions have mandates that have changed/are changing with regards to the ongoing covid-19 situation.

Fingers crossed for Monday, chaps! I can't imagine it takes thst long to do a book build for an RTO of a producing asset.

Very interesting, Daveri007! Thank you, that's just the kind of info that's encouraging to know.

It may well be that Jub Capital are still unloading as and when they can get liquidity. That's my theory at least, because if they're having problems, the last thing they would want is to have cash locked up in a suspended stock.

Well, it's a good question, Ash.

I'm certainly no expert, however, in the case of LBE you can't give it a forward valuation at the moment because it earns no money, once it has some income it would then be valued forward, I. E. on a PE of 5 let's say.

You are right that if they get a load of debt that most debt providers will require hedges on ~75% of the production to cover their risk, but leave the other 25% free to the oil markets. That obviously provides some up/downside to the equity.

Most of how LBE comes out with an RTO will be based on the price that any equity is raised at, IMO. So even if it comes out at the current price, you would still expect it to go up on readmission, because of the ability to them give it a forward valuation.

My view, which may prove to be completely incorrect, is that they may now be able to buy a lot more production than they expected due to the oil price drop.

As HH alluded to in his interviews, this would mean that they could borrow more money against that production to fund the acquisition itself, which may mean that any equity raise would be smaller or at a higher price than it would have been otherwise.

I'll be absolutely delighted if daveri is right, but in my gut, I just feel that if LBE were leaky enough that daveri knows not only that there will be an RNS today/tomorrow, but also that LBE are to perform two deals simultaneously, then the volume would be through the roof and it would be as leaky as a sieve.

I think we'll be able to tell if an RNS is coming in the volume before we actually get one.

I would love to belive daveri007, but I can't ignore the fact that if he really knows, then it's likely it would have leaked properly and then we would have seen a massive run up in volume.

I await a deal patiently, but I would encourage daveri007 to provide some corroboration, sources or provenance to his remarks.

I'm inclined to agree with you, to be honest. He doesn't come across as a ramper and is a little too specific.

I would be interested to know, Daveri007, your post history suggest two complimentary acquisitions, do you know if this was the intention prior to the oil price collapse or if it is a product of the collapse that we could execute on two deals?

Speak, Daveri007!

I just can't work out if you're genuine or not. Half of me thinks you probably do have "edge" here (to use the hedge fund euphemism) and the other half of me thinks you don't.

I'd love to believe you as we're both holders here, so anymore details you cna share to corroborate your thoughts would be appreciated.

Well, I'll be honest. I would like one so I can top up, at or below my average, but I doubt it.

I think that post the RRE deal, that probably mopped up any lose stock here.

If it is Jub Capital selling down then there could be a chance of a dip, but I have no idea how many they have left (if it was/is them).

My gut says a big dip is probably unlikely now, bar terrible news.

These aren't mine, but from Twitter:
https://twitter.com/DouglasJohnWri1/status/1286621366171697152?s=19

"In the meantime, here is my summary of what I believe are the main highlights from David's answers:

- Petrel remains highly thought of by Ministry of Oil officials

- Petrel is dealing directly with the Iraqi authorities on their own

- Petrel is optimistic that they will cooperate in some way with the Tamraz group; relations are cordial

- commercially sensitive negotiations with Iraqi authorities are currently ongoing

- in contact with ITOCHU who wants Petrel to operate

- odds on to realize a significant income generating deal in Iraq

- PSA type contracts back on the agenda in Iraq

- Block 6 has become a very realistic opportunity again

- Merjan has become a very realistic opportunity again

- gas processing opportunities (insinuated)

- Ghana: meaningful progress via high level meetings due in March

I must admit there's a small part of me that wouldn't mind if this sold down so I can get my average down again, although, my average is at 78.75p so it would have to drop a lot and I don't think Jub Capital have that much more to sell down as their LSEG issues they will have known about for a while I suppose.

I think there's a very high chance that the seller is Jub Capital, who've had their LSEG membership suspended pending clarification of their financial position.

They have 3.1% if we go by the LBE website.

Come on Daveri007, spill the beans!

There's a lot of hinting that you might know something in your posts, while you also say that you're not partial to any inside information.

Tell us, tell us, tell us!

To be honest, I think that a lot of it depends on what their strategy was when entering into LBE.

It may well have been that they intended to take the IPO and sell into the usual bump up you get. In our case, as one of the underwriters sold their holding on the morning, we never got our bump in price, hence why they might be selling now.

It's an interesting one to watch here. Hopefully we'll get a deal soon.

I like how the management incentive plan works, because in the short term a value line is put in at 200p from the BODs perspective and really it has to be higher than that for them to make any money.

Yes, come on deveri007. Spill the beans!