Member Info for mountainous

Bonkers, love the piece with reference to the rest of us lol, works well to boost group morale!

Precisely that, you never know the future.

These days I barely even open my trading app anymore. It’s boring seeing the sp flat like that, but I was prepared to stay in CINE for a long time, so I’m staying for now.

I think some sort of director buy is long overdue, this is something still in the back of my mind. If Mooky is confident that the court case is in the bag (so to speak) and that we are going to be fine, why not put your money where your mouth is and increase your position?

I noticed this as well and came here to see if someone else has seen the same.

I think CINE is becoming a bit illiquid these days, I honestly believe that the only people left in this stock are those who intend to hold for a while; if you’re still holding after all we’ve been through in the past 6 months then you must have ‘diamond hands’ to quip a quote from the AMC folks. Those who were intent on selling have pretty much finished, hence the incredibly low trading volume and the subsequent illiquidity that we’re seeing in the app.

Good side of that is if any big positive news comes, the rise will be even more explosive. You should see what happened to EVE when they announced a retail partnership with DFS, the thing rose nearly 80%.

That’s my personal opinion.

I think the timing of the mix-up is quite bad. I hope that Venkat learns from all of this and that it doesn’t happen again.

That being said, there are people who have been here for many years in this stock who have probably seen a lot more mess-ups than I have, let’s see what happens.

lol also just remembered that Mooky has a bonus waiting for him at 190p, that might take a small while :)

Remember Polaris bought EVEN when they knew that CINE lost, so they don’t see CINE going bust over this judgement.
Remember Mooky and his substantial holding. For those who say that ‘the price is too low regardless so that’s why he’s not selling’ I would advise you to take a look at LMND in the US where insiders were selling at 52 week lows. If they see significant danger on the horizon then they will sell, simple as. Some money even at 33p is better for Mooky than no money at 0p, so if there really was no scope for this sp to increase again then Mooky would be packing his shares and counting his losses, same thing for the institutional investors. They all have a lot more to lose than us (and also know a lot more than us). Rome wasn’t built in a day.

I have also thought about whether Cineplex have so much hate for us that they may even just want to see us bankrupted, even if it means no money for them.

Yes, $1.2bn is a ridiculous amount of money, but I still reserve the opinion that it is not an unpayable sum, especially if CINE gets a bit of help from lenders. We will have to wait and see what happens, but I don’t think the end of CINE is coming if the appeal is unsuccessful. Perhaps a bit of wishful thinking, but allowing the second biggest cinema company in the world to go bankrupt would put close to 30,000 jobs at risk. CINE is proven to be profitable, so allowing the company to go under would be a waste. You have companies like deliveroo and even Uber that still produce zero profit and they are valued at billions and still stay afloat.

Hello all. In light of the recent mess-up from BARC, I think this is a fantastic time to get in and take a punt. I was hoping to get in at about 148 today, missed it slightly.

I intend to open a small position tomorrow and just hold for the medium term. Unfortunately, BARC and other UK banks fail to produce good, reliable returns for their investors, so intending to just hold until all of the controversy blows over. BARC is a UK blue chip, and this recent mistake will blow over in a while.

@tedzkat, in a nutshell there are two types of position you can have in a stock. Short or long. You may already know what a short position is, but in case you don’t it is a position which makes you money when the price goes down.

A long position is one that makes you money when the price goes up. Those are the kinds of positions that investors like us (or majority of us) in this board hold. The fact that we are 99% long as a stock means there is a large consensus that CINE’s sp has room for further growth. It also means that with so many people long, there is little leeway for short sellers. In the event of a large run in the sp, short sellers are facing the momentum of the vast vast majority of shareholders, there will be little available room to close positions.

All imo.

I believe that when this sp rises, it will be sudden and substantial. 99% long is a game-changer, but especially with CINE being the most shorted stock in the UK.

There’s always been a ‘fear of missing out’ element of keeping my investment. Imagine selling today and then next week we get news of an out of court settlement or something else positive which sends this thing flying. It happened to some last year in September, many sold at low 60s only to see CINE rise to mid 80s a week or two later.

@havefaithinmarke - I extend a warm welcome to the rollercoaster that is CINE.

I am amongst the more bullish of investors here.

In terms of movement for the next 12 months, I anticipate it will be mostly flat. We might get the odd rise here and there, but I don’t expect anything substantial unless a favourable out of court settlement is forthcoming. Alternatively, if we win our appeal, I think CINE will be the investment of the year. As you correctly mentioned, indeed the court case is the key here.

With respect to £2.40 within 18 months, that is a hard no from me unfortunately. This company will take a few years to deleverage itself back to the debt levels we had pre-pandemic, and it may take a few good years before we get a dividend back too. Assuming a positive result from the court case by mid-2023, and a well performing box office, I personally foresee 120-150p in 18 months. Conservatively, I would say 80-100p.

That being said, I do not think CINE is on the brink of bankruptcy as some here will try to make you believe. Cineplex’s current status as an unsecured creditor to Cineworld means that there is a reasonable chance of an out of court settlement, and 2022 has a very solid line up of films. The current sp is the result of a ton of uncertainty in this company, as we know that there is insufficient liquidity available to pay. But with the amount of lenders’ money CINE has in it’s hands as debt, it would be in the lender’s best interests to lend CINE some more money to see it through even in the worst case event that the appeal is unsuccessful and no alternative settlement is reached.

It’s also worth mentioning the large roster of institutional investors CINE has, and that as recently as a month or two ago, one of them increased their stake. The CEO is one of the largest (if not THE largest) shareholder, and that is something that does provide some comfort. Neither the large investors nor the CEO have sold stock recently, and none have sold since the Cineplex verdict was released, so that also does provide some additional comfort.

This is my opinion, but I hope this helps, and all the best with your trading/investing endeavours.

@lpd, was hoping to pick up some POG and POLY as a punt but it was almost always set to close only by T212.

Worth a small punt when it was down by tons lol, I hope POG and POLY LTHs are doing well

Just seen what is going on with MCLS and it’s quite surprising. Is it the staggering amount of debt, I can’t really see how supply chain issues are still persisting and causing so much difficulty within the company

@StanleyPro, thank you and I hope you are doing well.

An sp of 29 would effectively be the same as when CINE first announced the court case result, when literally nobody knew if this company was going to see tomorrow. Nobody knew if they would have to put the money in escrow whilst the appeal was ongoing, a situation in which the company would need to find about $1bn overnight. So if we ever see that kind of price again, I’d see it as a bargain.

I don’t know if I would top up, as CINE is a big part of my portfolio already, but I would certainly consider it :)

@Hussart, I understand that concern.

Let’s theoretically say that CINE is not successful in the appeal (just hypothetically). We would probably see a drop in this sp of substantial proportions. You could dilute this share price to the moon and back, but the market cap would be so small that it wouldn’t make a large difference. Hence why I believe that a share dilution is off the cards for the most part.

However, I can see a small one happening when the sp recovers well, probably to help with deleveraging etc. That MAY happen, but I can see no share dilution when the sp is so low, even less so with an sp following a bad appeal result.

I think we are due some sort of increase soon hopefully, I’d be surprised to see this fall under 30.

Mooky is still holding, Institutional investors are still around, and the latest move we’ve seen from them have actually been a buy (Polaris a month or two back).

Yes, these times are unsettling for many investors, myself included. However, I still think there is a good chance that we will see a decent rise once again. This company going bust is in nobody’s best interests at all (except shorters) so there is much more scope to keep CINE open and solvent even in the event that the appeal is not successful, rather than letting the company fall. Such an event would mean Mooky’s fortunes get wiped out, every investor (institutional investors included) also wiped out, and probably debt-holders would be lucky to see even a decent chunk of their cash back. The case for insolvency is even more unlikely when you consider the fact that CINE has proven that it is a profitable, cash-generating business again, despite the worst public health crisis in a lifetime where streaming companies held all the cards.

All imo, I’m still sticking around (and hoping to see Mr Mark back in action again!)

Personally, I’m satisfied with yesterday’s results. My main hope was seeing some reassurance that their cash balance is sufficient for the year and they wrote it in black and white.

The DFS partnership will bring in an inevitable increase in sales for sure imo, more eyes and more purchasing opportunities. It would be fantastic if EVE could also perhaps get some of their small side-products that they upsell into DFS as well so we can generate a bit of extra revenue there too.

The fact that the sp is back at where we were pre-DFS announcement is shocking, I’m keeping an eye on the sp and hope to increase at about 1.9-2.00p.

Also would not be surprised to see DFS make a takeover offer which is fantastic, they have a history of doing that sort of thing and EVE would fit right into their collection; YoY growth and very little debt.

All the best to everyone

@InsiderInfo28 nobody is forcing anyone to stay. When I had my doubts and had plans to leave, there wasn’t a single person here who tried to change my mind. Quite the contrary actually, they encouraged me to take care of myself first.

We all know it’s risky, but the bottom line is that we’ve decided to take that risk. If you don’t want to take that risk, then you ought to keep your mouth closed unless you have anything of value to say here; deramping and ramping are equally as dangerous.

@lpd, that court case seems fantastic indeed, if we win that one we stand to be in a much better position taking into account the Cineplex situation too.

@BlueBuxton, still here! My stocks have been on the back burner for a while due to life getting a bit hectic and busy recently, but I’m hoping to get back into it and get some thorough research done across the portfolio :)

All the best for tomorrow all, if we drop yet again then I think tomorrow is the day I deploy a lot of capital and buy a lot of shares.

I just need to see a bit of proof that this company is financially self-sufficient for the foreseeable future. If I see that, then I am quite comfortable to increase imo.

Yes, 5 red days in a row. And that’s ok. We are all LTH’s here so we try our best to look past the intraday noise and look towards the future.

No joke at all, if this appeal results in a reduced amount to pay, then you can prepare for early retirement imo. If we got an RNS tomorrow to say we have secured an out of court settlement for a lesser amount, or if the appeal completes tomorrow and we get a reduced amount that way, I can reasonably see a 100% gain in one day. There have been occasions in the past where CINE rose 100% in about 24 hours.

And if we don’t get it reduced, I can see a large shareholder perhaps issuing some sort of loan, or CINE reaching out directly to lenders for help. There is not a single person (except shorters which are quite irrelevant) who benefits from this company going under. Quite the contrary, all of us involved will suffer, lenders will suffer, Cineplex will suffer also.