Member Info for mountainous

@oceanpassage - another day, another variant of nonsense

After considering the possible situation, it may be the case that no RNS arrives tomorrow. I think that CINE paid the dissenting shareholders and reduced the RCF as required. If they didn’t do either of these things, then an RNS would need to be released on Friday.

After having the weekend to re-evaluate, I don’t have concerns personally. Cineplex fine is substantial, but not unmanageable. Ali Naqvi over at HSBC is quick to downgrade the price target but doesn’t appear to understand that during the time that CINE was shut worldwide, lenders had no issue propping the company up. CINE was HEAVILY leveraged at that time, lenders could have easily said no. Note that at the same time, it appeared that streaming was about to finish up cinema. There were many people at my workplace telling me that cinema was done and that streaming will dominate.

Now, we are achieving 84% of 2019 box office with just 47% of the releases. I will keep my investment thank you.

Forum Film is not owned by Cineworld, it is owned by Israel Theatres Group. https://www.yesplanet.co.il/static/en/il/forum-film

I think it is probably best for Mooky not to make a statement until the fine has been issued. You don’t want to say ‘this ruling is unrepresentative of the company’ to the same people deciding the size of your fine.

I expect some statement (if any) in October, we will just have to wait and see.

Very interesting way of calculating there @Hexam.

CINE made $2.15bn in H1 2019, so on average about $358m/month. So you believe that CINE has surpassed the average 2019 level this month? (Wouldn’t be surprised if they did).

Apologies, I meant $271,339,282 for the month of June.

@shazabo - I am taking my info from here: https://www.statista.com/statistics/188565/north-american-movie-theater-circuits-by-number-of-screens/

Regal has 6,851 screens in North America out of a total of 24,414 screens. That gives Regal a market share of about 28%.

28% of $966,935,809 = $271,339,282 in the month of July for CINE from US.

As lpd pointed out, bear in mind that this does not include:
-Unlimited Subscriptions
-Concessionary Income
-Advertising and trailer showings
-Online booking fees

Could it be the case that out-of-court negotiations are taking place with Cineplex, and that CINE doesn’t want to reveal the full state of their trading as a means of leveraging their position in the talks?

Pure speculation, but remember that Mooky said ‘we are considering all options’.

Good morning @Hexam, I don’t see why they would stay silent too, but my assumption is just that because they already listed this outcome on the annual report, they find no need for it.

They may be waiting to do a large RNS all in one, where they update us on the RCF, dissenting payment and trading update too.

I was thinking about the fact that no RNS appeared may actually be a very good thing.

CINE already told us their projections/predictions for what they will be able to do with the RCF. They told us that they estimated BO to return to 85% and that they will be able to reduce the RCF to below 35% to avoid the test from memory. If this was any different, then CINE would have to update us. The fact that they didn’t release anything perhaps suggests that CINE has actually been able to reduce the RCF as projected, and CINE already told us that was their expectation, so perhaps they don’t need to release an RNS for it.

With the dissenting payment, if you look at the language of that RNS it talks about maximising liquidity. Not once amongst all the RNS’s for the dissenting payments does it mention them seeking the waiver so they will actually be able to pay it, it just talks about maximising liquidity. Therefore, it may be the case that CINE was able to pay these dissenting shareholders right from the very start of when they got the waiver, and there was never any concern about whether they’d be able to pay or not. Remember that CINE paid $170m on the spot already, and all they had to pay at this time was $96m, that really isn’t too much at all.

All in my opinion.

Agreed @bullsbears, and CINE’s acquisition strategy also has put the company in a lot of danger.

CINE’s strategy appeared to be ‘leverage now, reap benefits later’. And to be honest, it’s not the worst strategy. If the pandemic did not happen, then by we would have seen the true benefits of the regal acquisition. It’s just a shame that covid happened.

Then again, who would have thought that CINE would be purchasable at such a low price. Once these headwinds clear I think I will be incredibly happy with myself for making the decision to invest here. Time will tell, but I’m hopeful :)

@oceanpassage, are you under the influence of something?

It is evidently clear that you are here for nothing more than to spread fear. If you were a legitimate shareholder, then you would have known that the vast majority of Mooky’s net worth and his family’s net worth is based upon the performance of cineworld stock.

I don’t know how on Earth Mooky would see a debt-for-equity swap as an ‘attractive option’ considering his net worth would effectively be wiped out too.

@bullsbears in a very worst case scenario I would prefer a huge rights issue. I actually have no problem investing in CINE, it is just the headwinds that make me uneasy a bit. If things such as Cineplex or debt weren’t an issue, then I would be all over CINE stock anyday. The stock was outperforming the FTSE 250 pre-pandemic year-on-year. The company and the business model is solid, it’s just these headwinds right now. So, I wouldn’t mind a big rights issue if it meant I could invest further into CINE. At least with a rights issue you have the option of increasing your investment, whereas with a debt-for-equity swap you are just a sitting duck.

Good evening @Chipstacker, thanks for copying and pasting this.

Yes, I did see it last week. It is simply not good enough. You’re a multi-billion pound company. If a huge prospective investor came and dropped an email to IR and they took several days to respond (or not respond at all) what appearance does that give?

Agreed shazabo, this is just getting out of hand now.

They know full well that investors are aware of the RCF and dissenting payment deadline being today.

@Metom, to be very honest today has been difficult for me to. It is just so frustrating that the company isn’t telling us anything. They know full well that investors are waiting to see what is going to happen with the RCF and dissenting payment today but we have heard NOTHING. It’s almost like the BoD are teasing us.

This is the issue with not keeping investors informed, it creates fear.

Apologies, I contradicted myself with point number 1 of the RCF. I think CINE must have successfully dealt with the RCF today and have not sought another waiver.

There is just no way that CINE could have gotten another waiver and not announced it, and there is also no way that CINE have gone ahead with the test because it would have almost been a definite fail. There is also no way that CINE have defaulted, because if they did then it would be price sensitive info and therefore they would be required to publish an RNS for it. Therefore, I can only assume that they have reduced it to 35% as required and have passed it, and they have immediately drawn upon it again to pay off the dissenting shareholders.

Once again, this is just my opinion.

I was wondering if it was possible that CINE MAY BE towards the end of a favourable out of court settlement and they may be waiting for the finalisation of that and then publish a bumper RNS?

It wouldn’t be the first time that CINE released a bumper RNS like that, they gave us a trading update, an update on the filing of the appeal and an update on the release of the full year results all in one RNS back in January.

In my view, the fact we were open for trading today must mean that we are not in administration. I remember with McColls, in the morning the lenders said no more waiver extension and then they suspended the stock and issued the administration RNS that very same day.

So here’s where I think we are at:

With the RCF:

Either
1. CINE has sought another waiver and has been successful. They may be awaiting some other news to publish a bumper RNS.
OR
2. CINE has successfully reduced it to 35% and has circumvented the test.

With the Dissenting Payment:

Either
1. CINE has successfully paid it off.
OR
2. There must be some sort of informal agreement now to get the rest of it paid off. Not a full waiver (as that would need an RNS), but perhaps just another day or two to pay it off. It may be the case that CINE has told them to wait another day until the RCF has been paid back to 35% and then straight away they will re-withdraw the amount and use it to pay the remainder of the dissenting shareholders.

In my own view, I think CINE has just about reduced it to 35% and will then re-withdraw it to pay off the remaining dissenting shareholders (they may have been able to do this today). Hence, there is no need for an RNS. This is the only thing I can think of. If CINE sought a proper waiver for either of them, then they MUST have published an RNS. If CINE went into administration today, then they MUST have published an RNS. Neither occurred.

Perhaps Nisan’s intelligent flexing of the finances has saved us today.

All my opinion only.

Just release the damn RNS for crying out loud.

CINE avoids the RNS function like the plague.

Is there a chance they may release it after market close today?

Ah yes @Hexam, that’s right.

So we can’t even join the dots together to see what no RNS would mean for this company today lol, the suspense is real.

So if we open in about 20 minutes, then that means the company has NOT defaulted on either payment, correct?

Because if they did, CINE would go into administration. Today is the first day after the payment date.

Same here. Lots of suspense.

If this company doesn’t release anything today then we walk down to Brentford HQ and demand it ourselves (peacefully) :)

@Crumpets, yes. The final instalment of the dissenting Regal payment was delayed until today. The RCF covenant test is also due today.

However, we got a reply from IR that CINE does not need to actually update the lenders on whether they have passed the test or not until about September (to my understanding). Therefore, if CINE seriously wants to give us the silent treatment, they could push it out until then. If we get no news regarding the RCF tomorrow, then we can presume that CINE is going ahead with the test without a waiver imo.

However, we should get some sort of news on the dissenting payment. This is imminent.

I guess if CINE defaulted and obtained no waiver we would find out tomorrow and the stock wouldn’t open for trading. Tomorrow could be a bit of a ‘make-or-break’, I’m here for all of it haha