Member Info for Morningsun

Ha, and that it does post.... Grrrrrr

Irritatingly I have posted twice now but system doesn't want to support.
MS

Aandi, you are using 'deposit', singular. Sandeep used 'Deposits', plural, when he spoke about Hav during the Denver presentation.
MS

This is odd though isn't it Tiburn?
The 10 to 15% typical carry is not what we see in our project and it clearly states 'exploration and development'. We see it in the other projects in the area though. So why are SNPC in our project at 44% AND are paying their share of the (exploration) cost. That seems to go against their own strategy doesn't it?
MS

This is the text that goes with PG's post
***
Paterson Range East

The Paterson Range East licence, E45/4928, is 100% owned by Greatland and lies approximately 25 kilometres north of the Company’s Havieron gold-copper prospect. The licence covers 224 square kilometres of Proterozoic basement rocks prospective for Havieron style gold-copper mineralisation.

New aeromagnetic data collected across Paterson Range East successfully identifies and defines numerous high-priority targets with a similar magnetic signature to Havieron.
***
MS

Defence, that is a £140 mln valuation, double from current SP. If you would have done any research and perhaps read PaddyGall's posts you would understand how utterly ridiculous that is.
MS

Exactly my thoughts Urban. Ggp is much better off selling off projects they find by having them proven up by majors. Until they are big enough to develop their own projects and don't need majors anymore.

Indeed, the core skill of GGP seems to be finding the targets and doing the initial work to get the big boys in for said 70% ish and live on the 30% ish.

However, they are not big enough so GGP will have to sell something. Which coincidentally is their strategy.

However, what if one of the bigger boys do want to have them incorporated (maybe as a stand alone unit) because they're so good at what they do and this major doesn't want to miss out on any projects. Ggp is not going off on a tangent in some weird jurisdiction any time soon I'd hazard a guess.l so I don't see that 'not liked projects' argument as valid. Besides, the mother company would steer some anyway.

Although from a NC perspective I do see your point and indeed Sandeep makes it very clear he is in no hurry when he shows his ore reserve graphs. Longest ore life of them all. Others may not be so patient and may want to get more stuck in.

Time will tell. GGP has to play their cards well but are not in full control either.

MS

Thanks Volvic.
I have to go back through the comms to verify the GGP Hav stated 750 million mt ore. If that is at 2g/mt including all valuables then it's ridiculous. If it is at the stated Numis USD135/mt it is still ridiculous.
Not bad of course, just mindboggling, even if it was 'only' 1g/mt gold equivalent as that would still be 24 million ounce...
MS

Havieron from 15.50 in the presentation.

Two things jump out.
1. He is clearly excited about Havieron for reasons of grade and structure which he has not seen before in the Paterson. He also uses plural when talking about potential targets to keep telfer open, but it is not possible to tell whether it is plural because of GGP controlled targets or plural because of hav and other projects they look at around telfer, outside of GGP.

Secondly, and more excitingly for me, when he goes on to discuss red chris, he says that this is TR1. He also says they have 6 drills on site... We have 4 and the fifth started or starting. It really shows us just how serious NC is taking Havieron! Same amount of drilling effort as red chris. Mind boggling. TR1 material.

MS

So, Sandeep is praising the **** out of HAV and at the same time they are making an offer for GGP.
How does that make sense? Surely NC would have told SB to not do so as it will most definitely hurt your commercial position. NO chance GGP will accept such lowly offer after the comments of NC and SB IF they were ever so inclined and/or desperate..

Also, if it really is so good as Sandeep is telling the market, how on earth is he going to validate a 3P offer.

I think it's a load of hogwash that someone with an attention deficit dreamt up.

As far as I can see the market doesn't believe it either.

MS

Apple at your time of posting it was down at 1.8 again. However, at the time of writing this post its up at 1.98 again. This is volatile today. something is ado.
MS

Very funny Chart, but excellent point made.
MS

No it isn't. Do the math. It can't be.

2g gold per mt ore (assumed over the full indicated (conservative) 60 mln mt...) so 0.064 ounce/mt ore (2/31.1). One ounce is USD1,500 so that means the gold in the ore is worth USD 97/mt (0.064*USD1,500). Add some copper and other valuables to it and you get to the indicated USD135/mt. Great.

Still, that is based on selling price of the valuables, not the profit/EBITDA. Unless I'm missing something?

MS

That is revenue guys. Not EBITDA on which companies/projects typically are valued.
MS

Degsy, if so I hope it's for HAV only. I really do not see us getting proper value with these early buyouts. Sure, the 6p for HAV that does the rounds is attractive. However, if we go back to PaddyGall's post yesterday with the Numis ore valuations at some USD 135/mt and 60 mln mt than we would be shooting ourselves in the foot with early buyouts. But I get the trade of for a company maker buyout of HAV alone and would be OK with such trade-off on HAV so we can safely develop the other projects. But hopefully at a lot higher than the 6p because listening to Sandeep (not the core results ;-) that would be a proper steal...
MS

So, Sandeep saying he is excited gets the SP going but the actual core assays don't. Think I've seen it all now.
Ah well, as longs as it's up it's fine with me.
MS

So Poly, if you put a message on here 3 weeks ago as you claim then where is it? This is your first post....

Good work! You still got the credits though ;-)

Interesting read PG.
Weird though that you credit blackcat but the actual post from blackcat on hotcopper states at the top that you originally posting this article?
MS

Surely today will be painful. However, don't forget that all these ii were willing to put up the cash to build the mine. Soooo, they agreed and understood the business case.
Nothing has changed. Just the bond market is against Sirius.

This means a temp set back and a closed off route. However, ever closed door will open another. The government may review their stance as it's a very big project for both the North East as well as the UK but also, a lower SP will mean other parties will and can come to the table.

Maybe this is where CF can bring his old mate Andrew Forrest back into the picture. Surely they are looking to diversify from the volatile steel market. Just a thought.

MS