The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
JAllis - I think you're totalling missing the point. The reason why a lot of us are here is because we have been able to buy shares in a company holding a massive asset which has currently 0 value due to the very factors that you have outlined. We believe that the current environment is very different and conducive to the asset being attributed a value - and a very big value at that. There is now time pressure on TL as their current fund that props up the country is projected to run out of money in the not too distant future. The potential reward is huge - it's all a matter of an individual's risk appetite. The board has stated before that they key to unlocking the value here sits with TL - myself and others think that time is getting close to when TL will turn that key! When HFB was around he would regularly repeat the very binary aspects of Chudditch. But as others have said, Baron is not just about Chudditch. DYOR GLA etc :-)
Some of you are probably already familiar with the mechanics of dividends but if not then I hope the following helps. A share price will usually instantly fall by the amount of a dividend on the Ex Div Date - what the share price does immediately afterwards is then subject again to market forces (or MM whims!). Typically there is not much share price impact when a routine regualar dividend is declared but who knows what could happen in a situation where a substantial special dividend gets declared. If you sell on or after the Ex Div Date then you are entitled to the dividend for the shares held on the Ex Div Date. If you sell before the ex date then the buyer is entitled to the dividend. There may be a Books Closed date (sometimes known as the Record Date) slightly later than the Ex Div Date to allow as many in flight trades as possible to settle. The Pay Date really only just gives the various parties sufficient time to process the dividend and resolve any problems. Tax is also determined with respect to the Ex Div Date - similar idea to purchases and sales where the trade date determines ownership and therefore tax rather than the settlement date. So if you're trying to juggle tax then getting the dates right when to buy/sell during a dividend period is important.
GLA and fingers crossed !
Moose
Hey Fish - I think you've posted a similar comment previously! Hmmm.
Take it easy on folks - this is a social corner for folks to discuss a share. They shouldn't be in fear of PC Fish opening a double posting investigation against them!
GLA
Looking forward to the presentation this coming Wednesday!
As a reminder of what we can expect ...
From RNS on 8th Dec 2021 ...
Investor Webinar
An Investor Webinar on the Chuditch asset is planned for January 2022. The presentation is expected to include an updated
technical overview and a discussion of the overall commercial context of Chuditch, including potential gas export options.
Details of the Webinar will be announced in due course and a copy of the presentation will subsequently be posted on the Baron website.
Jon Ford, Technical Director of Baron commented:
"The delivery of the initial products from the 3D seismic reprocessing is a significant milestone in our re-evaluation of the
Chuditch trend. To date, encouraging improvements have been observed in data quality which we are confident will lead to a substantially clearer subsurface image in the final reprocessed products.
"In parallel, we continue with other studies which, when combined with the seismic reprocessing, will deliver a complete and high quality technical and commercial evaluation of this exciting asset during 2022."
... and confirmed in the RNS of 11th Jan 2022
Baron Oil Plc (AIM:BOIL), the AIM-quoted oil and gas exploration company, is pleased to announce that the Company's Chief Executive Andy Yeo, Technical Director John Ford and Andy Butler (Managing Director of SundaGas Banda, the Chuditch PSC Operator), will provide a live investor presentation on Wednesday 26 January 2022 at 6.00 p.m. London time.
The presentation will focus on the Company's Chuditch PSC (offshore Timor-Leste TL-SO-19-16) and will include an updated technical overview, a description of the overall commercial context and potential options for future gas export.
I would think that any material updates will first need to be released in an RNS.
Going to be an interesting week!
GLA, DYOR
Moose
Unfortunately true - but the trading sideshow doesn't really matter while we await the main event!
I should also have said that I simplified Corporation Tax to a worse case scenario where KOD has no reliefs against which to offset its CT liability - it probably has!
Happy New Year all!
I though I'd do some analysis based on last year's Feasibility Study and possible future Spodumene prices to generate some potential future share price scenarios.
The calculation inputs used are:
C1: C1 Cash Costs + Sustaining Capital = $440 per tonne
RY: Royalties + NSR + ISCP = 6.5% of Gross Revenue
TX: Corporation Tax = 25% of Net Revenue
SC: Spodumene Concentrate = $680/$1000/$2000/$3000
PR: Production per annum = 220,000 tonnes per annum
SH: Number of Shares = 15,832,000,000
FX: GBP/USD fx rate = 1.35
PE: Price Earnings Ratio = 5/10/15
Step by Step Formula:
Revenue per share adjusted for Royalties/NSR/ISCP: AR = SC x (1 - RY)
Before Tax annual earnings in GBP: BT = PR x (AR - C1) / FX
After Tax earnings: AT = BT x (1 - TX)
Earnings per share in pence: EPS = 100 x AT / SH
Potential share price = EPS x PE
Results:
PE Ratio
Spodumene 5 10 15
$680 0.76 1.51 2.27
$1000 1.91 3.82 5.73
$2000 5.52 11.04 16.56
$3000 9.13 18.26 27.39
List version:
Spod $680, PE 5 = 0.76p per share
Spod $680, PE 10 = 1.51p per share
Spod $680, PE 15 = 2.27p per share
Spod $1000, PE 5 = 1.91p per share
Spod $1000, PE 10 = 3.82p per share
Spod $1000, PE 15 = 5.73p per share
Spod $2000, PE 5 = 5.52p per share
Spod $2000, PE 10 = 11.04p per share
Spod $2000, PE 15 = 16.56p per share
Spod $3000, PE 5 = 9.13p per share
Spod $3000, PE 10 = 18.26p per share
Spod $3000, PE 15 = 27.39p per share
I've had to make some assumptions and simplifications so if anyone spots anything wrong then let me know and I'll do an update.
As always, DYOR and GLA
Moose
Hi Safpatel - it’s all in last week’s RNS and recent investor presentations on the Oriole website. The presentations even have a slide that asks your very question!
GLA and DYOR (especially that!)
According to my maths 1.2% of 90% of $400million divided by 16 years = $270k = approx £205k p.a.
Or did I overlook something?
Mick - I've tried sniffing around but everyone here and all the systems are in Downstream. Whatever that exists on the exploration and refinement side is completely separated. In this current age of Information Security you only get access to what you need to do your job :-(
Later on I'll explore on LinkedIn the connections of my BP connections and see if I can make any links from that direction. I might also just connect with the "on the ground in Georgia" people that I listed below and see what happens.
Zen - LinkedIn is only as up to date as what the members put in their profile. If they've not bothered to update LinkedIn after moving on elsewhere then nothing can be done.
Ivy - yeah I had a look at their profiles and there's not much activity in terms of sharing posts etc - but then a lot of people (including me) don't share posts etc.
I'm not quite sure how Connections work as I think it may include membership of Groups. It's possible that working for BP may trigger some as I'm connected to quite a few here (I work in BP Retail IT).
/Moose
Great idea from Ivy and Crab to see if any Frontera employees are on LinkedIn. I've had a look and can see that there are 48 people listed who say they are currently at Frontera Resources. I can only see names and positions of those who are "3rd Degree Connections" - ie I know someone who knows someone who knows them - or closer. This has revealed 11 names which I'm listing below with some bits of information that I can immediately see on their profiles. I can see the job titles and locations of another 22 and most are in Georgia in either geologist, operations or admin/accountancy roles. Below are the names that I have gleaned:
Keti Karchava
Logistics Coordinator at Frontera Resources Corporation, Georgia
Zaza Sichinava
Drilling & Completion supervisor at FRC, Georgia (Includes BP, Baker Hughes and Total in his interests)
George Kalandarishvili
VP Finance & Admin, FRC, Georgia (Also has BP as an interest)
Apolon Mshvidobadze
Manager of Strategic Planning & Financial Analysis, Frontera Eastern Georgia, Georgia
Levan Paitchadze
Chief Accountant at Frontera Eastern Georgia, Georgia
Kakhaber Koiava
Geologist at FRC, Georgia (includes BP, Shell, Chevron and Total in his interests)
Levan B
VP and General Counsel at FRC, Houston (interests includes BP, Schlumberger, Conoco, Baker Hughes, Georgia International Arbitration Centre)
Nikoloz Bakradze
Director of IT at FRC, Georgia
Vladimeri Charkviani
Production Engineer at FRC, Georgia (includes BP, Shell, Schlumberger, Exxon, Chevron, Halliburton, Block Energy in interests and shared the Baker Hughes home page)
Mehmet Yukler
Senior VP at Frontera Resources, Dallas
Andy Szescila
Director at FRC, (worked at Baker Hughes in the past, lists himself as being in Florida)
Bacho Vakhtang Glonti, Geologist at FRC, Georgia
/Moose
Flakey - who knows what's been drilled over the past 4 months. Hopefully we should be finding out soon - good or bad!
Ian - re fundamentals. I've tried using a Brent crude price of $68per barrel, USD/GBP ex-rate of 1.30, production costs of $25 per barrel, 65% attributable to Angus and 459m shares.
For a selection of PE ratios this gives the following SP based on producing 1000 bopd:
5 = 8.5p
8 = 13.6p
10 = 17p
15 = 25.6p
Take your pick but as you've pointed out sentiment can easily push an SP higher or lower! Don't forget Balcombe too where Angus (the operator) has a 25% interest and Lidsey (every drop of black gold counts!)
GL
/Moose
Exxon also work closely with BP
New cause list out for next week: no mention of Frontera
Updated Appeal Court list published on 27/3: several additions but no mention of Frontera
Tempting to think this is good and indicative of an OOCS.
Sitting tight here too on just under 10m shares. I feel very relaxed with the experienced Tim at the helm and looks like Bob has done great work so far on the financial side. No skeletons rattling around to trip us up, we're in miner friendly countries, timelines being kept to, a good partner. I think 2019 will be transformational - it may be several months before "lift off" but each successive RNS strengthens the hand. Our mcap is farcical considering the multi-billion valuation that investors are willing to give Lyft. I reckon we have an "in the ground value" at least 10x mcap and as Cameroon progresses towards feasibility, LOM, proven resources etc we should see that mcap multiplier increase significantly.
IMO and GLA
"Anyhow, there's the filter button if you find the rough and tumble too difficult to handle."
Not at all - a lot of sense in your posts - just think to fogs up your message :-)
GL
Why do you feel the need to be so rude and aggressive in what you write?
" Are all private companies 'worthless'?"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_private_companies_in_the_United_Kingdom