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Great analysis Madpunter. Just one question, is the sharing agreement relevant to these numbers? ie should we at this stage attribute 49% to Frontera and 51% to Georgia? Or is the attribution only carried out once profit has been calculated?
/Moose
"Best of luck here, Moosematics!"
Thanks and to you too.
"Good to remember one thing: These days lots of software is connected, and if a certain line is climbed, then large money follows."
Okay I get it now and thanks for engaging! :-) In my view that is less TA and more a case of exploiting what others are doing with the same software ie algorithmic trading. So it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. The problem applying this to stocks like BMN as we've seen over recent months is that a Broker/MM could be sitting on a large sell order or warrant exercise and will soak up buying pressure and hence the price doesn't move as expected. This is where TA on SETSqx shares loses validity unless you can be really sure there is no overhang in the background from a placing. Not an easy task which has even had Alfacomp scratching his head at times!
Nice to discuss properly :-)
Very bizarre reply from Chartist2. Can't quite work out if it is condescending, elitist or just desperate.
Anyway, I will give up trying to engage as it is pointless. Apologies for cluttering the board but I thought not too much impact would be done late on a Sat evening.
For any new person looking in here I recommend focusing on the recent posts made by the likes of RichKen and check out Alfacomp's trading analysis on The Bushfeld Perspective which includes tons of useful reading.
All the best and strength to those and their loved ones who are fighting illness. As always DYOR.
"Because 90% of the posters on this board shouted Strong buy buy buy at 49-51p. IMO very very misleading to newbie posters! And if you were doubting the urgent bearish signal in mid December (by your non acceptance of the signals), then you have been one of them."
I didn't shout buy and was not even aware of any bearish signals because I don't follow the charts. So once again please do not put words into my mouth when I haven't said anything. This is part of your problem on here.
"Why had the TA worked this well, right into Jsnuary...?"
You tell me - I am genuinely interested in understanding a reason for it working. I'm just disappointed that you won't engage in scientific discussion on the subject.
By the way, the reason why I'm keen to pursue this topic is that I was charting shares back in the early 1980s using graph paper, pencil and the FT. One of my jobs on the North American Dividend desk of a big UK clearing bank was to chart Canadian shares that paid quarterly optional stock dividends. We would sell excess stock to pay cash takers and the challenge was to sell at as high a price as possible.
"Anything, any company that has a traceble / recordable pattern, can be analysed on the chart, as for my experience."
Only if it meets certain criteria - my challenge is that the criteria is not met and I'm inviting you to explain why TA holds when the assumptions don't hold.
"But never mind, Moosematics! If you hold the opinion that 51p has a good buy entry, then I let it stand as is."
I have never offered such an opinion. It is quite troubling that you make up things that I have not said. Why?
"all he / she is doing is giving a TA persepective of this stock ,,, whats the big deal ?"
The big deal is that these postings give the impression of truth and the less savvy might use the bold statements of possible price movement as the basis for investing. In the recent past I have invited Chartist2 to engage and discuss how TA can be valid for a stock such as BMN when it does not satisfy the basic assumptions needed for TA. A reasonable starting assumption to make is that if a stock is traded under SETSqx then it is unlikely to meet TA criteria. Alfa's trade analysis for example demonstrates that the current BMN share price does not have everything factored into it - which is a crucial pillar of TA - and also that we frequently see buying pressure soaked up by pre-arranged selling (an unfortunate by-product of small companies getting finance which then creates an overhang e.g. warrants which doesn't get cleared for several years). I haven't seen a response which makes me wonder if Chartist2 actually understands the difference between SETSqx and SETS and the effect of financing overhangs. In SETSqx the MMs generally can control the price unless they are overwhelmed by volume or don't have an arrangement with a big seller.
"BMN is 37p today, not 51p. In my opinion the only reason for this is because there were more shares sold on the market, than takers."
Interesting explanation - so nothing to do with TA then? :-)
I do apologise for not correcting your name at the time - it cheapened my posting. Sorry!
But onto the serious point of TA on a share that is traded under SETSqx - it doesn't work.
"Just like people use the public road that leads through your village. Or are you questioning this?"
Very good analogy Charred Tits (oops sorry damn auto-correct) because while driving up and down the village high street honking your horn all the time might be perfectly legal it doesn't mean to say that you do it.
Pyro - sorry to hear about your family loss continued prayers for Sala being found. Puts things into perspective!
I've had similar thoughts on how this may pan out over time. Obviously there are several things that must slot into place first of all before anything can happen i.e. positive litigation outcome, major signing up, funding sorted out.
Then I think the BoD need to address how the current shareholders get value for their locked in holding. Assuming there is not a takeover by a major then I've come up with 3 directions that this could take if FRR continues to exist:
#1 Relist on another exchange that is recognised by HMRC and where shares can be held in a dematerialised repository such as Crest, DTC etc.
#2 As cash reserves accumulate there is a buy back of shares by the company over time. Maybe a certain % of shares dependent on the performance of the company.
#3 A policy of special dividend payments is announced again linked to the performance of the company.
I like #2 as it could give PIs an annual cash flow which can be used either to provide income like a pension or to reinvest for the future. Whether you use the cash flow for income or investment will be down to your personal circumstances - importantly it gives us some flexibility.
My feeling is that a buyback scheme would be more preferable to FRR than having a dividend policy of special dividends to keep control of who is owning the share capital. If the objective is to stay unlisted then reduction of the number of shares and shareholders over time would be more consistent than say allowing trading on something like AssetMatch. Relisting would be great but needs the company to look radically different to that of today.
If not a relisting then I think something definitive needs to be put in place which still allows the company to grow but at the same time offers shareholders a share of the potential good times ahead. If things don't come to fruition on one or more of the court case, major interest or funding then we were doomed anyway!
/Moose
Not sure if people are aware of this resource on the Grand Cayman Court website.
On their Financial Services webpage https://www.judicial.ky/courts/grand-court/financial-services-division
There is a link to https://www.judicial.ky/wp-content/uploads/FSD-Users-Guide-On-website.pdf
This seems to explain the process for cases in the Financial Services Division and I can see sections covering recognisable parts of our case e.g. p39/40 Directions. Hopefully folks with more knowledge of the case and experience of legal stuff can make use of this if they haven't already seen it.
GLA and fingers crossed!
PJ100 - what has brought you to the FRR board? Why spend such a long time writing a long post for no apparent reason? What is your real motivation?
I had a look at your posting history where you clearly do not understand how market makers operate and function for shares that are traded under SETSqx. Yet you seem to preach constantly to people as if you know it all but your actual knowledge is very poor.
Today's post by you on this board is very strange in all number of ways - I just wonder who you really are? I guess we won't find out as you're probably too cowardly to step out from behind the safety of a computer screen.
Scotty & Bluesky
I think what you need to do is include the concept of correlation. So EUA and palladium are linked because of future endeavours but currently so lowly correlated that other factors are dominating the movement in the share price. As EUA gets closer to mining and selling palladium then the level of correlation will increase and will become a more dominant factor in influencing the share price which could be up or down - just as KAZ is often thought to be strongly correlated to the copper price.
Wow, 3.5 million in one go! That is 0.5% of the company. I'm getting the same feeling as others that something tasty is brewing :-)
I've been googling him and some of his previous cases and he seems a very reasonable person. He recently came to GC from Bermuda and brings a wealth of experience.
What stands out for me about Justice Ian Kawaley are two things:
1. He likes to see a good case before allowing discovery - he opposes fishing trips
2. He encourages parties to work together and agree a way forward on their differences
Imo the positive that I'm taking from this is that 1. must be satisfied to have got this far and he is going to push everyone to agree an OOCS.
Fingers crossed!
The claim amount looks like it could be made up of several components - note the use of the word "aggregate" in this snippet from December 24th's RNS: "The Company claims damages against Mr Hope and OMF in the aggregate amount of US$56,287,800."
http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=FRR&ArticleCode=f5yaullk&ArticleHeadline=Update_Regarding_Cayman_Grand_Court_Action
regdik: Hope's joining of the board of FRR was announced via RNS on 15th Feb 2017
http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=FRR&ArticleCode=85f73l90&ArticleHeadline=Appointment_of_Director
Does that help?
DHC - first steps in your social rehabilitation. Compare your post to the one below from Allthatglitters - you could learn a lot from this!
"It's tempting to get carried away, but it may be best to wait for the RNS confirmation first before blowing our own trumpets."
Hi Superman - not a stupid question and many people will miss out on their opportunity because of it.
How are your shares registered? Most likely you'll be registered via a broker or a trading platform. You'll need to contact them directly either by phone or online to ensure that everything is set up correctly for them to send your voting intention to Angus. In my case I'm with Interactive Investor and there are some tick boxes in their Tools section that enable voting.
Just been looking at: http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/investors/share-structure-significant-shareholders/
Do we have any inkling as to how Knowe and JDA will vote? They represent a hefty 18.69% of the voting rights.
Both were part of the formation of the company as they are mentioned in the admission document:
http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Angus-Energy-AIM-Admission-Document-7.11.2016.pdf
Finally I checked: http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Angus-Energy-plc-Articles-of-Association.pdf and can see that any proxies older than 12 months old could lapse - so make sure everything is up to date. GLA
Thanks Alan2017 for the explanation of what's going on - always good to have a refresher!
I'd also like to add a brief history/geology refresher: the Forties field that ignited the boom back in the early 70s got its oil from the same Portland fed from the same Kimmeridge which is still producing now. Only key differences are formation thicknesses and maturing environment (e.g. temperature). It looks like there is sufficient thickness and an excellent hydrocarbon forming environment across the Weald. By the 80s Forties had produced over a billion barrels of oil and more recently new technology has extended the life of Forties way beyond initial estimates. Forties had over 100 wells which just goes to show that there is so much oil down there that it is also possible to have an array of wells in play in the Weald Basin. All boxes ticked. Patience is the name of the game. GLA.