Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
It doesn't help when the share price drops dues to sells but then doesn't go back up when there are lots of buys!
Anyway, my sticky fingers are still crossed for some big news at some point from IAG. We'll probably get Cameroon trench results first as I should imagine that IAG won't make a move of any sorts until Senegal grants the mining concession (something will have to go badly wrong for that not to happen). So just a waiting game while the MMs play with the sp. I think Tim's track record speaks for itself - not only is ORR very investable but so is the CEO. An acquisition of the entire company is not out of the question which has to be at fair value of the assets or it won't be allowed. Therefore I don't see a risk of IAG getting it from us on the cheap just because we currently have a ridiculously low mcap. Just IMO.
/Moose
Goit - re "I had a quick scan of the document again and didn't see the part where it said about hope being limited to the $2million interest? can you give me a heads up to where it is? "
Interpretation of the end of paragraph 42 on page 16.
/Moose
I don't think Mr Kawaley has ever been thinking in terms of who should win and who should suffer as a result of being defeated. Mr Kawaley has said that no one skill-set is sufficient here - that indicates that Hope/OMF taking over the Company is as much a bad option for the Company as is ZM and SN continuing to muddle through on their own.
Mr Kawaley has been careful all the way through this writing up so when he uses the word "considerable" in the phrase "considerable market value" then it must be for good reason. The "box" is confirmed as being full. In the grand scheme of things the potential damages/compensation is actually quite small. The key thing is that Hope/OMF cannot grab and dispose of the "box" with impunity and sacrifice the "considerable market value" of FRR. Helping to realise this "considerable market value" has to be the most lucrative and commercially sensible option for anyone to take. Mr Kawaley's comment in Section 49 where he says "that it is inherently unbelievable that Outrider would take steps that would be calamitous to its own commercial interests" is quite a statement that on its own seems to support Hope/OMF. It would if at this stage Mr Kawaley proceeded to a judicial resolution against FRR. But he didn't! And when put into context with Section 50, it effectively says that helping to restructure a company that has "considerable market value" is the logical and expected course of action.
Mr Kawaley is a very clever man because I think what he has done here is to, in not so many words, provide a framework and boundaries for the parties to work within going forward.
We then just need to see whether the $60 million term sheet is still on the table and the status of the Majors. It would be totally consistent with capital restructuring for the preservation of the "considerable market value" if the $2 million interest payment and OMF notes are redeemed using part of the term sheet. I think, imo, what Mr Kawaley has written opens up the way for (or even encourages!) this to happen rather than a sale of assets that would be counter to preserving value.
/Moose
I think Section 42 says that Hope/OMF can only get what is due to them ie $2 million interest.
However, the final sentence of Section 50 offers a lifeline in that they shouldn't take their $2 million and damage FRR's "considerable market value".
So, if the $60 million term sheet is a go'er then ALL the parties should be able to work together to find a debt restructure that protects creditors and the Company. Essentially this is the OOCS except that Hope/OMF won't be paying any compensation to FRR but I feel that they are prevented from embarking on a fire sale and now obliged to work together to restructure the Company's debts and realise value for creditors and eventually shareholders.
At this stage the only thing that is lost is gaining compensation of the fiduciary duties and unlawful interference bit. It feels to me that the assets are protected and their existence acknowledged via the "considerable market value" comment. Protection of the assets is the key positive here.
Just IMO
/Moose
... just feels a bit unhealthy at times. Stressed LTHs turning on each other isn't good reading and certainly not for the individuals in the middle of it. We could easily have another 8 weeks to go before we find out our fate here - so since suspension we may not even be halfway down the road yet! I know it's good to talk and there is consolation to be gained in the company of others in the same boat but let's all just think before we post. If ZM were to give an update as many would like then what does he say? Whatever he says will get picked apart. If he says he is confident and it goes south then people will turn on him for misleading them. If he says it's going south then it gives the other side a reason for keeping going. While the court case(s) are ongoing then I would prefer to hear nothing. Loose lips sink ships.
IMO GLA
/Moose
"Anything else I’ve forgotten?":
How about an asset that has an "in ground value" of around $16 billion which is equivalent to $1 per share. Our share (after recovering £400 million of money already spent) of that is still a potential $0.51 per share. That is a whopping 180 times our price at suspension! Even a small fraction of that is still going to be a lot :-) GLA
/Moose
No worries PJOHN - burying myself in the numbers helps to de-stress.
I believe that if FRR were really finished then there would be no court action, no twitter bashing, no nothing. Things may still go against us but for the moment we have a pulse.
PJOHN - I wasn't nit picking. I've spent a lot of time looking at the numbers and as you can see Madpunter appreciated someone taking the time to go through them - a mistake is easily made. You'll also see that I recently enhanced this calculation by trying to apply our cost recovery and then the sharing with Georgia.
ATB
Madpunter - I appreciate all the number crunching as it backs up the premise that FRR is a viable business.
I hope you don't mind me pointing out a miscalculation in this part ...
"18kMMbbls oil and 202TCF (at the same recoverable rates as the figures in the CPR = 2.9kMMbbls and 140TCF) . If this is converted to oil equivalent (1TCF = 170MMbbls oil) = 2.9 + 26.7 = 29.6kMMbbls."
The summation should be 2.9 + 23.8 = 26.7kMMbbls as 140 x 170MM = 23.8MM. I think you work out the 26.7MM and then forgot that it already included the 2.9MM.
/Moose
Yes a nice presentation pulling together lots of different strands.
For anyone new to Oriole have a read at this presentation in conjunction with recent RNS's.
https://orioleresources.com/investors/reports-presentations/
Also keep an eye on IAMGOLD (IAG) at http://www.iamgold.com/English/investors/news-releases/default.aspx
Recent news releases around IAG funding, Au delivery targets, strategic direction and the close proximity of Dalafin to their Boto project is all very relevant to us at Oriole.
Nothing down for Frontera that I can see ...
https://www.judicial.ky/wp-content/uploads/courts/grand-court/GrandCourtList4thFebruary2019(1%60).pdf
mbingo: "Assets have got to be worth £3-5m as they stand. "
I would have thought as a bare minimum - although I'm no expert in mining asset accounting valuations!
However, if our Dalafin licence is deemed to be say 1.5 million oz then an "in the ground value" of $40 per oz seems to be typical which would value the Dalafin licence at $60 million! In itself that is worth about 8.5 cents per share!!
Soley: "And just a sniff of news on Boto from IAG re satellites to Boto and this is over a 1p in a flash"
News could come any time as IAG seem to be very active in getting their house in order. Senegal is a very miner friendly jurisdiction to operate in so all is boding well.
Interesting article about IAMGOLD: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4236489-wise-move-iamgold
especially page 6: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4236489-wise-move-iamgold?page=6
where the author speculates that IAMGOLD is about to buy a strategic asset or smaller player in the sector following it putting Cote on the back burner.
The article supports the deferring Cote in favour of a project with lower AISC, Capex and time to market. A good account of the probable reasoning behind the decision.
Aussie & Flakey: perhaps either Zaza hasn't seen your emails yet due to being busy or he is wary of engaging people he doesn't know in the current circumstances. I really don't know and the more we speculate on why Zaza hasn't answered risks putting doubts in our minds and feeding the trolls.
For the time being I think I will rely and trust the PIs who have already got Zaza's ear as I might too feel disappointed if I were to email the company and not receive a reply.
I'm going back to read and enjoy Madpunter's "Future Dividends" post again!
"I do not think we should get to excited yet"
however I am drawing comfort from this pump approval that it is still game on at Brockham! Why bother if it wasn't is my logic.
"So it is possible for him" - theoretically yes if legal title to the shares can be transferred. That is all that really counts. So assuming that the shares have not been frozen then it should be possible. We used to have a "frozen" status on our system that would stop transfers being initiated. If that had happened then I would have thought holders would be informed. But as I say, I have been out of the asset servicing space for quite a while!
Always hard to tell what is going on behind the scenes. With other shares I've seen arrangements to sell placing shares into the market in an orderly manner which has had the effect of soaking up purchases. Eventually this runs out of steam and the share price starts to rise. I don't know if this or something else applies here. It could just be people trading - not easy against the spread though! When the herd arrives the MMs will not be able to control things and the share price will rapidly rise. This will be compounded by starting from a very small market cap so even though there are 702 million shares on issue there will just not be enough stock to satisfy buy orders. And into orbit we will go!
All just my opinion and speculation of course! :-)
/Moose
"Does that also not mean that frr shares are currently non tradeable? Eg shorters can't close shorts, aka how can tw supposedly buy them for 0.006 or whatever he said?"
Correct that they are not tradable but you should still be able to transfer them. A market trade is always against payment - the shares and cash both move at the same time (slightly more complicated than that but effectively that from a risk point of view). To trade "off market" you need to do what is known as a "free and free". In this context "free" means free of conditions like making payment or receiving shares. So your Crest participant (ie your broker) will make a free transfer of shares to the participant of the person to whom you've agreed to give the shares to. This other person should have instructed their participant to make a free transfer of cash to your participant for your account. You are therefore exposed to counterparty risk until you are sure that you have cleared funds in your account. Then in the background the share registrar will be updated with the share movement and legal title will be transferred. The important thing is that the share transfer and cash transfer are not linked unlike a market trade. I used to work in stock settlements at a major bank but that was many years ago so perhaps the "free and free" concept has got a bit more sophisticated over time to minimise the risk. I think the principles will still be very similar.
/Moose
Very soon Wideyed - also keep an eye on IAMGOLD for their news releases as what they decide to do could launch us into orbit. http://www.iamgold.com/English/investors/news-releases/default.aspx